Where did all the horses go?

[Track Phantom]

I'll qualify my somewhat pessimistic comments with the fact that I've been following the game for 30 years, love the game, and it will always be in my blood.

The current situation reminds me of the scene in the movie "As Good as it Gets" when Jack Nicholson says that very line to the people looking to "improve" themselves waiting outside the psychiatrists office. They all look bewildered, as if the thought of things not improving for them never even crossed their mind.

It's very possible that this is as "good as it gets" for racing in the US. Indicators suggest the game will continue to fall precipitously unless dramatic action (voluntary or involuntary) occurs.

I don't believe there are any quick fixes to this issue and also don't believe the blame is to be laid anywhere in particular. The desire to understand the litany of complexities in order to compete in a parimutuel environment is just not desirable to the masses. They have other, less taxing, options. In addition, the cost of owning horses is substantial. If one isn't interested in the wagering, or sport, of horse racing, it's unlikely they'll be involved in the ownership side.

Adding to the problem, the top 10% of the trainers are training the majority of the horses. They may have 10-15 horses that meet a condition but will enter just 1 (maybe 2) in a given race. If those 10-15 horses were spread out to different trainers, many races would have bigger fields.

There are a million ways to attack the crumbling foundation. There are so many holes that it's hard to know where to begin. If I were in charge (whatever that means) I would make forming a National Horse Racing Alliance with a governing body the #1 priority. It has to happen.

It's interesting that all of the major sports have a commissioner, and all are prosperous. Boxing draws the most direct parallel to horse racing, without centralized authority. Interestingly, both boxing and horse racing dominated newspapers in the '50's and '60's, and now both struggle to find a modicum of coverage.

In my opinion, it's rather simple. Without unified leadership and track participation, the game will continue to erode to unthinkable depths. Major tracks, beyond Hollywood Park, will start to shutter. If de-coupling happens, where tracks aren't buoyed by slot money, we could be looking at days, not months/years, before we see major venues go away. When that starts happening, it could have a domino effect.

I once thought the idea of horse racing gone completely was absurd. I felt there would always be major racing, and the minor racing would come and go. Sadly, there is a path to extinction and it appears US racing is on it.

[betovernetcapper]

IMO the loss of horses started several years ago when the Feds changed the tax code so that in order to take a deduction, you had to show a profit every 3 years. You had to run it as a business. Prior to that time there were a lot of doctors, lawyers, brokers and such with extra cash & a need for deductions. They could buy a horse or two & enjoy social benefit & if they broke even or lost a bit, they were happy. Those people are not buying as many horses these days.

The cost of hay has gone up (why?) and this has hurt the small operations.

The tracks & horseman are late to the Internet party & still don't get it. Some announcer was offering one $1 draft to veterans on a given day if they brought there documentation. Who thinks this crap up?

There are solutions such as changing the Tax code, limiting the number of tracks & making Internet betting easier & more profitable (rebates). Speaking of the tax code, why not make winnings untaxable? Other countries do it & the sky hasn't fallen.

If the illegals are deported (which I favor) & the minimum wage goes to $15 an hour (which I oppose), there is going to be a very lonely backstretch for awhile. Then again if we cut back to a dozen tracks, we could make it on domestic labor.

Just my 2$

[VigorsTheGrey]

Good posts above with excellent points made...
Yes, the masses shy away from throwing their cash at ponies...without the requisite skills, time, and labor to properly evaluate things, the casual player no doubt reasons after losing skads of cash "been there, done that" ....even the sharks of wagering struggle to stay ahead with lifetimes of experience behind them...so one can understand why the public is staying away...and from a purely mental aspect...where is the novelty in racing...? Horses run around in circles, race after race, after watching a few hundred races (if that), the average bloke probably gets real bored...they don't look at and see racing the way we do...

One problem is that the US is a large country with many states and a lot of venues...so it is difficult to apply the Hong Kong model or Japan model to all our venues....yet these foreign venues deserve to be looked at seriously...the PASSION for racing needs to be reignited somehow like it was here in the past and over there now....

Yet, tax incentives for owning and training racehorses maybe the only way back now, and no taxation on gambling winnings nor deductions for gambling losses...maybe someone with political clout can pass this along to Trump and he can do an Executive Order tomorrow... BOOM...! Problem solved...! Let's get the Donald on this ASAP...turning around racing would add jobs and increase his base and popularity....easy fix for the Donald....!

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Santa Anita had to cancel Thursday because of a lack of entries.

SANTA ANITA!

And looking over the Mountaineer card tonight, FOUR of the NINE races are FIVE horse fields!! Mountaineer used to have pretty decent-sized fields...

Guess that foal shortage is really starting to kick in these days...

Would love to hear from the folks who say we shouldn't be thinking CONSOLIDATION in the racing industry...we need MORE TRACKS!

It seems to be becoming a worse investment by the year.
Putting money into bloodstock is a pretty sure way of kissing it goodbye.
Less owners willing to take the risk - who could blame them?

Consolidation will happen.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Good posts above with excellent points made...
Yes, the masses shy away from throwing their cash at ponies...without the requisite skills, time, and labor to properly evaluate things, the casual player no doubt reasons after losing skads of cash "been there, done that" ....even the sharks of wagering struggle to stay ahead with lifetimes of experience behind them...so one can understand why the public is staying away...and from a purely mental aspect...where is the novelty in racing...? Horses run around in circles, race after race, after watching a few hundred races (if that), the average bloke probably gets real bored...they don't look at and see racing the way we do...

One problem is that the US is a large country with many states and a lot of venues...so it is difficult to apply the Hong Kong model or Japan model to all our venues....yet these foreign venues deserve to be looked at seriously...the PASSION for racing needs to be reignited somehow like it was here in the past and over there now....

Yet, tax incentives for owning and training racehorses maybe the only way back now, and no taxation on gambling winnings nor deductions for gambling losses...maybe someone with political clout can pass this along to Trump and he can do an Executive Order tomorrow... BOOM...! Problem solved...! Let's get the Donald on this ASAP...turning around racing would add jobs and increase his base and popularity....easy fix for the Donald....!

That’s B.S.! We live in a free and capitalistic society. If any one (large or small) of our stateside racing jurisdictions (with some entrepreneurial spirit) were smart enough and had the creativity to embark on using the Hong Kong racing model, they would be greatly rewarded in the long run. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why their product draws patronage from all over the world.

Hong Kong racing reflects the exact opposite of every negative comment posted on this thread. It’s no wonder why their typical 10 race daily pools are larger than even events like the BC, or any of the TC race series.

[ReplayRandall]

The responses in this thread are echoes of the thread I started over 2 years ago----->Contraction

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=116948

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Hong Kong racing reflects the exact opposite of every negative comment posted on this thread. It’s no wonder why their typical 10 race daily pools are larger than even events like the BC, or any of the TC race series.

Oh please. Stop with this nonsense. Every jurisdiction in the USA could take up the "Hong Kong Model," whatever that really is, and things wouldn't be all that different then they are right now.

Oh wait, they can't take on the "Hong Kong Model" because that would place almost ALL legal gambling activities (Horse Racing, Lotteries, Mahjong, etc) under JOCKEY CLUB control, CUTTING our racing venues down to TWO nationwide, and only allowing them to race something like 80 days out of the year.

Good luck with that.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

Jeff's right but takeout is only scratching the surface. if you want to cut down the interest in this sport this game sure has found the way. 3 breeders cups ago 1/3rd of the races were won by either Chad Brown, Bob Baffert and Wesley Ward.

the biggest asset this sport had was that the star of the sport was the horse, today its the trainer and only a few of them. people want to handicap horses, not trainers, the game got it in reverse these days.

one would have thought that the internet and computers could only help grow the game. so everyone tried computerized numbers that included pace and statistics. today those numbers mean squat, its the trainers that rule this game now not the numbers that people like to see. add in the takeout and the breakage and you have a real disaster.

this is the perfect way for this game to die a slow painful death.

Maybe the trainers are getting the press because Brown, Pletcher and Baffert are hard to avoid (as much as I'd like to avoid all three), but the stars remain the horses. No one gives a sh** about the trainers. Jockeys have some appeal but it's hard to market tiny little men who most women are bigger than.

I'm definitely in favor of breaking up the big stables. It's simple, really. If the horses aren't physically with you at the track (other than shipping in for a race), then the trainer of record is the assistant trainer who is caring for that horse. And that trainer gets the 10%.

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

The desire to understand the litany of complexities in order to compete in a parimutuel environment is just not desirable to the masses.

I don't see this get mentioned enough in "what's wrong with racing" threads, but I think it's a very underrated reason for a lack of new faces at the track.

As a millennial, if I want to play a game of skill, I have so many options. Whether it's straight up sports betting on leagues and teams that I know inside and out, or daily fantasy sites picking individual athletes, or card games like poker/blackjack.

Why on earth would I pass on all of those, and instead devote myself to learning a game that:

a) buries me in an overwhelming amount of information and statistics, leaving me to try and differentiate signals from noise. I understand the challenge of handicapping will appeal to some, but to most they'll take a look at a daily racing form, throw their hands up and stick with a sport they're already familiar with.

b) forces me to either go to a physical location to participate; locations that are often run down, in bad neighborhoods, and feature less than savory characters. Or it requires me to choose an ADW to sign up with, where funding is often a struggle, not to mention waiting to get your money back out.

c) features an overly complex betting menu, with nuances and rules that vary from track to track, and sometimes are just made up on the spot (jackpot pick pools, carryovers, etc.)

d) even if I can somehow overcome all of the above, I'm still looking at a product of declining quality (smaller fields), an increasingly high takeout, constant stories of crooks and drugs on the backside, industry in-fighting that can randomly leave me shut out from betting on certain tracks....the list goes on.

Sure, on Breeder's Cup or a Triple Crown day, you'll see higher casual interest. But outside of those 4-5 days, can someone please try and convince me why I should play the horses over literally any other available option?

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'll qualify my somewhat pessimistic comments with the fact that I've been following the game for 30 years, love the game, and it will always be in my blood.

The current situation reminds me of the scene in the movie "As Good as it Gets" when Jack Nicholson says that very line to the people looking to "improve" themselves waiting outside the psychiatrists office. They all look bewildered, as if the thought of things not improving for them never even crossed their mind.

It's very possible that this is as "good as it gets" for racing in the US. Indicators suggest the game will continue to fall precipitously unless dramatic action (voluntary or involuntary) occurs.

I don't believe there are any quick fixes to this issue and also don't believe the blame is to be laid anywhere in particular. The desire to understand the litany of complexities in order to compete in a parimutuel environment is just not desirable to the masses. They have other, less taxing, options. In addition, the cost of owning horses is substantial. If one isn't interested in the wagering, or sport, of horse racing, it's unlikely they'll be involved in the ownership side.

Adding to the problem, the top 10% of the trainers are training the majority of the horses. They may have 10-15 horses that meet a condition but will enter just 1 (maybe 2) in a given race. If those 10-15 horses were spread out to different trainers, many races would have bigger fields.

There are a million ways to attack the crumbling foundation. There are so many holes that it's hard to know where to begin. If I were in charge (whatever that means) I would make forming a National Horse Racing Alliance with a governing body the #1 priority. It has to happen.

It's interesting that all of the major sports have a commissioner, and all are prosperous. Boxing draws the most direct parallel to horse racing, without centralized authority. Interestingly, both boxing and horse racing dominated newspapers in the '50's and '60's, and now both struggle to find a modicum of coverage.

In my opinion, it's rather simple. Without unified leadership and track participation, the game will continue to erode to unthinkable depths. Major tracks, beyond Hollywood Park, will start to shutter. If de-coupling happens, where tracks aren't buoyed by slot money, we could be looking at days, not months/years, before we see major venues go away. When that starts happening, it could have a domino effect.

I once thought the idea of horse racing gone completely was absurd. I felt there would always be major racing, and the minor racing would come and go. Sadly, there is a path to extinction and it appears US racing is on it.

Everyone knows there has to be a central organization, but the problem is there is no way to form one. The state regulatory boards aren't going to cede their power to a central organization. Neither will the tracks.

[foregoforever]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

can someone please try and convince me why I should play the horses over literally any other available option?

Not me. Seems like you've pretty much figured it out. Even older people who've made it over the hurdles you listed are leaving the game.

And for e), consider that you're talking about a business that doesn't give a rat's ass for you as a customer. Racing today exists on hand-outs from casino subsidies. Trying to keep the customer satisfied doesn't fit into the model.

[Hambletonian]

It is not takeout, it just is a result of transforming horse betting into and offtrack endeavor. Even the racinos put little effort into bringing fans in.

If nobody is showing up to watch, there is no need for the number of racetracks we have now.

How about an A circuit of 5-8 tracks racing primarily on weekends (two or three at any one time). A B circuit of 10-12 tracks splitting between weekdays and weekends, so that there are two or three signals a weekday for simulcasting purposes, and a C circuit of any other tracks that can survive locally.

This will result in a severe contraction of the industry for sure, but perhaps by condensing the product it can be invigorated. I hate saying this, since i love fairs and small tracks the best, but things will have to change and soon.

[wisconsin]

Why does Pennsylvania have to run 2 tracks at once, 3 in the fall, competing with Delaware, Laurel and Charles Town? You could have one hell of an Atlantic Coast circuit if tracks would simply find a way to come together and race 2 months apiece, with maybe some limited summertime night track carryover.

Sure, "live" racing would suffer, I guess, but you would have full fields and the same amount of betting money at worst, but mostly of the simulcast variety, which is worth more than live handle anyway. Tracks that I ignore with those great 5, 6 and 7 horse fields would once again become playable.

[Jeff P]

The current power structure of North American racing is horsemen driven.

And it's a power structure that insists on keeping the status quo intact.

Because of that - until we change the power structure:

Almost everything the Hong Kong Jockey Club gets right will never see the light of day.

Allow me to play what if for a second...

What if - you could go to the US Jockey Club website and get free basic running line info for today's runners - just like the Hong Kong Jockey Club site? (Wouldn't that help in the making it easier to wager slash attracting and keeping new fans department?)

What if - you could go to the US Jockey Club website and click a link that would get you a short history of veterinary procedures performed on each of today's runners - just like you can at the Hong Kong Jockey Club site? (Wouldn't that help in the transparency slash attracting and keeping new fans department?)

What if - instead of continually giving trainers who are caught cheating through the use of drugs a slap on the wrist... the recent case at Tampa Bay Downs where Mandy Ness's name appeared in the program instead of Jamie Ness comes to mind...

What if, instead we adopted and enforced the same medication rules as the Hong Kong Jockey Club?

By the way, I just now Googled the phrase "2017 trainer standings Hong Kong" and found a page on the DRF.com site that has links to free pdf Trainer Standing reports for both Happy Valley and Sha Tin.

For the Happy Valley 04-20-2017 card the highest trainer win pct was J. Size at 18.9% and the second highest trainer win pct was J. Moore at 14.4%.

I ask you -- How do those numbers stack up (from a playability standpoint) vs. the current trainer numbers you will find for most North American tracks?

Wouldn't adopting and enforcing the same medication rules as the Hong Kong Jockey Club send a better integrity matters message to the public at large than the one we are currently sending?

And wouldn't a better integrity message help in the attracting and keeping new fans department?


What if - instead of outright refusal to suspend a rider for an obvious lack of effort... The Lousiana Racing Commisssion's refusal to suspend Kevin Smith for this ride comes to mind...

What if, instead we adopted and enforced the same standards for riding as the Hong Kong Jockey Club?

And what if our racing commissioners were perfectly willing to hand out rider suspensions for an obvious lack of effort - like the Hong Kong Jockey Club?

Wouldn't that send a better integrity message to the public at large? And wouldn't that help in the attracting and keeping new fans department?

I submit to you the idea that a lot of the game's current woes are self made and driven by a power structure that insists on the status quo.

But what if that power structure was willing to exercise a little vision...

And adopt at least some of the things that Hong Kong gets right?

I would argue the longer we wait to do that:

The longer this game continues its downward slide.


-jp

.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I'll qualify my somewhat pessimistic comments with the fact that I've been following the game for 30 years, love the game, and it will always be in my blood.

It's very possible that this is as "good as it gets" for racing in the US. Indicators suggest the game will continue to fall precipitously unless dramatic action (voluntary or involuntary) occurs.

Adding to the problem, the top 10% of the trainers are training the majority of the horses. They may have 10-15 horses that meet a condition but will enter just 1 (maybe 2) in a given race. If those 10-15 horses were spread out to different trainers, many races would have bigger fields.

There are a million ways to attack the crumbling foundation. There are so many holes that it's hard to know where to begin. If I were in charge (whatever that means) I would make forming a National Horse Racing Alliance with a governing body the #1 priority. It has to happen.

It's interesting that all of the major sports have a commissioner, and all are prosperous. Boxing draws the most direct parallel to horse racing, without centralized authority. Interestingly, both boxing and horse racing dominated newspapers in the '50's and '60's, and now both struggle to find a modicum of coverage.

In my opinion, it's rather simple. Without unified leadership and track participation, the game will continue to erode to unthinkable depths.

I once thought the idea of horse racing gone completely was absurd. I felt there would always be major racing, and the minor racing would come and go. Sadly, there is a path to extinction and it appears US racing is on it.

Many of the same thoughts I have put on here. The problem is that most of the industry won't "fess up" to the problems or admit how deep it is. There has to be some re-organization. Like any real major, professional sport. The tracks are actually killing each other, the demand is no where in line with the supply. There has to be rotating seasons with different levels of tracks.........just like Baseball or Hockey. Having 5 and under horse fields is great for everyone at the track, except the customer, who pays for keeping the limping place open. Its become a joke, some of these cards. Or should I say, non cards.

I don't think it will go extinct because eventually there will be no other choices to make. Like you said, "It has to happen."

Its so painfully obvious when there are half a dozen races going off (almost simultaneously) with less than 7 horses in everyone of them. That's the business model of a real "dreamer" and that's a compliment. There's gotta be a "set circuit" with different levels of competition. People will have to travel more but its reality at this point. Is horse racing just suddenly going to wake up? Again, Dreamer......is an understatement.

And a limit so 3 people don't train all the horses....how can that be a good thing?