|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,032
|
Gold: The Tortoise and The Hare
Just the other day I was doing some “spring cleaning” in my cellar when I came across a book that my mother had read to me, one that I would subsequently read to my children and grandchildren. This book, “The Tortoise and The Hare," is based on an Aesop Fable. The book has many messages, but the one that I believe that is most agreed upon, is: “Slow and steady wins the race.”
At this point, you may be asking: "What is the connection between a long-ago fable and the price of gold?”
Personally, I see a connection, call it a relationship, between the current price of the gold and that ancient fable.
Allow me to clarify: Over the years, there’s no denying, gold has had its "ups and downs.” Often those spikes in gold have been meteoric. It was if the price of gold were ascending on the back of some rocket ship. One could look back a little over 40 years, 1980 to be exact, when gold, as Teddy Roosevelt once said of himself, “…rose like a rocket.” Yet it wasn’t that long after that the price of gold fell back down to earth.
Moreover, in a sense, on that occasion, over four decades ago, an investor had to, in order to reap the profits from gold’s ascendancy literally “catch lightning in a bottle.” Even a day or two could made a big difference between substantial profits and run-of-the-mill ones.
That brings me to the present and the current price of gold, somewhat over $2,000 an ounce.
What I see today, that I rarely saw in gold’s past “emergences,” is that it’s “measured." Gold's price remains in a relatively tight “channel.” Yes, it has, intraday, gotten as high as $2,085 per ounce; yet it has, over the past several weeks, established “a floor” that is slightly below $2,000.
Moreover, I call this kind of pattern: “treading water.” Under those circumstances, I’m doing a lot of “watchful waiting.” Unlike many of gold’s past rallies, there’s no need to constantly have “your finger on the pulse."
It’s just, as I’ve cited, over and over again, there’s so much out there. Uncertainty. Gold has a tendency to thrive in those circumstances.
Domestically, we have the question of the worthiness of regional banks. I ask: "Will there be other “shoes to drop,” especially if The Fed again raises interest rates another 25 basis-points next month?
Then, there’s our debt-crisis. It’s like the Sword of Damocles hanging over our collective heads. Sometimes, brinksmanship can go a bit too far. Get out of hand. Positions can harden. There must be a settlement of this vexing problem. “Kicking the can down the road” is not the answer.
Internationally, there is the “de-dollarization” movement. Call it a financial rebellion. A rebellion against the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. This movement, slowly but surely, has gained momentum. Will it come to pass? Only time will tell. Yet any alternative reserve currency, possibly a basket of currencies, would likely include gold as part of the equation.
In closing, that Aesop Fable, with its allegorical message, “Slow and steady wins the race,” I believe, suits gold "to a tee," in these troubled times, in my opinion, gold is “lurking in the shadows.” It wouldn't take much, either domestically or internationally, or both, to see that precious metal begin its ascendancy.
Personally, I’m content to "mark time.”
Finally, I believe, just like the message of that long-time fable: “Slow and steady wins the race."
__________________
Walt (Teach)
"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.
"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)
Last edited by Teach; 05-10-2023 at 07:49 AM.
|
