Long detailed article about the big teams. How does this grow the game? It doesn't

[Twin Double]

There is a way to mess these teams up, but it would take deep pockets.

If you were able to pump a lot of money throughout the pool and then cancel your wagers at the last second the team's wagering would be all messed up.

Obviously, it would take deep pockets, but if several people were to do this it would completely destroy these teams' advantage. They aren't trying to pick winners, they are just trying to evenly distribute their wagering capital to dilute the pools and then profit off the rebate. The algorithms they use rely on a close to accurate account of where the money is wagered so their betting programs know exactly what to bet and how much to bet. Messing this data up for them would destroy their advantage. It would cause them to consistently not bet the proper amounts.
Not very feasible, but it could be done.

[Twin Double]

Another big advantage these teams have that is never talked about is the ability to look deep into horizontal pools through APIs. When average Joe bets a pick 3 he is completely blind as to how much is wagered on X combination. Same thing with Trifectas. Through wagering APIs these teams can see what combinations are being bet and what aren't. All we get to see is the total amount in the pool. I stopped playing for the very reason of these teams. Legalized theft at the expense of the little guy.

[Dave Schwartz]

If you were able to pump a lot of money throughout the pool and then cancel your wagers at the last second the team's wagering would be all messed up.

First, what makes you think that a "team" that is betting 80+ percent of the races at 80% of the tracks is going to be "messed up" with a handful of tilted pools?

Second, if you think that BIG players are permitted to cancel wagers at the last second on anything that resembles a regular basis, you are very mistaken.

Just not how it works.

You might recall the well-publicized story of a whale - Dana Parham - whose employee accidentally wagered (I believe) $120,000 in a harness pool instead of $1,200.

He could not cancel the bet.

If a WHALE couldn't cancel, how could someone else?

BTW, he was very apologetic and backed it up by funding a pool with big seed money at the track. (If I don't have that right, please someone set me straight.)

[Twin Double]

First, what makes you think that a "team" that is betting 80+ percent of the races at 80% of the tracks is going to be "messed up" with a handful of tilted pools?

I realize tilting a few pools isn't going to mess these teams up long-term.
These teams are cancer to the sport. All I was doing is mentioning how they are vulnerable on a per-race basis. Yes, I realize as you do, it isn't going to be feasible to lay a bunch of action down and cancel wagers on a regular basis just to skew pools.

You might recall the well-publicized story of a whale - Dana Parham - whose employee accidentally wagered (I believe) $120,000 in a harness pool instead of $1,200.

Interesting story here. I am going to try and find the article. An expensive mistake haha.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Twin Double

Interesting story here. I am going to try and find the article. An expensive mistake haha.

The bet won.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Twin Double

Another big advantage these teams have that is never talked about is the ability to look deep into horizontal pools through APIs. When average Joe bets a pick 3 he is completely blind as to how much is wagered on X combination. Same thing with Trifectas. Through wagering APIs these teams can see what combinations are being bet and what aren't. All we get to see is the total amount in the pool. I stopped playing for the very reason of these teams. Legalized theft at the expense of the little guy.

Fyi, right now as I type this every single one of us has the ability to see standard tote data with each refresh:

Current pool amt and amt wagered on each runner for win, place, and show.

Current pool amt and payoff for individual exacta and double combinations. If you know the takeout rate for exacta and double you can do some math to estimate amt wagered on each combo. And/or amt wagered on each runner in the pool.

Double, pick3, pick4, pick5, and pick6 will pays. If you know the takeout rate for each wager type you can do some math to estimate the amt wagered on each runner in the current race.

Again, that's the standard info that all of us get to see.

Are you saying whale teams have the ability to make api calls that return the amt wagered on individual pick3, pick4, pick5, pick6, tri, and super combinations?

Data that's not available to the rest of us?

Do you have actual proof of this?


-jp
.

[Twin Double]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Fyi, right now as I type this every single one of us has the ability to see standard tote data with each refresh:

Current pool amt and amt wagered on each runner for win, place, and show.

Current pool amt and payoff for individual exacta and double combinations. If you know the takeout rate for exacta and double you can do some math to estimate amt wagered on each combo. And/or amt wagered on each runner in the pool.

Double, pick3, pick4, pick5, and pick6 will pays. If you know the takeout rate for each wager type you can do some math to estimate the amt wagered on each runner in the current race.

Again, that's the standard info that all of us get to see.

Are you saying whale teams have the ability to make api calls that return the amt wagered on individual pick3, pick4, pick5, pick6, tri, and super combinations?

Data that's not available to the rest of us?

Do you have actual proof of this?


-jp
.

Yes, I am just referring to the longer horizontal wagers like the P3, P4 etc. We are blind as to the will pays on leg1. This data is available (continuously changing as money enters the pool) for a special few. Maybe not so much the payoffs, but the money bet on X combinations and it would take a computer program to scan the data and calculate.

A few years ago there was a video floating around from a statistical analysis gambling conference. Computer team horse wagering was the main topic and the use of non-public API data was briefly discussed.
I will try my best to find and post the link over the weekend. Now they didn't go into deep detail on the APIs, but you could put 2 and 2 together and realize what they were getting at.

Personally, I think the proof is in the historic payoff data.
Remember years ago how volatile the payoffs would be on the longer horizontals? If a couple of 10-1 shots won 2 legs of a P4 you could see some freaky high payoffs much higher than they should have been. You never see that nowadays. The payoffs always seem to be perfectly efficient. If everyone was blind to the data I don't think that would happen as much as it does now.

To be honest this could be a function of the fact that people can bet .50 combinations whereas it used to be $1 or $2 min bets combos so this would allow people to play deeper tickets than usual. I believe it is from teams having the data to allow them to bet combos down to perfect efficiency.

I don't think these big teams would even participate in those pools unless they had that data.

On a separate note, thanks to whoever posted that podcast link. I jumped out of my seat when they mentioned Stonarch actually owns 50% of one of the big teams. If things don't change these teams will eventually run every average player away from the game until they are left battling themselves for a fraction of a percent return and once they devoured everything like Locusts they will abandon the game.

[formula_2002]

I'll add my two dollars worth of thought (the high cost of inflation). Say these magical whales drive the win down to true odds and win accordingly making their money on the rebates. So if they bet on horse who's true probability is 50% of the win pool they win 50% . No loss to anyone else, unless ofcourse you are on the same horse. You lost the benefit of your single overlay. Now 50% of the time they lose and everyone else benefits.

Is there any reputable documentation that these magical whales exist to the detriment of non whales.

[Twin Double]

I am just sharing my logic on the way I see things. I am by no means an expert on CAW, statistical analysis, AI etc.

My basic understanding of profitable gambling is that we need to consistently find +EV situations to have a long-term profit. For horse racing the only way that would be possible is to find inefficiencies in the wagering pools. If these teams have the tools and technology to bet all wagers down to fair value, no matter what we bet we lose. Even when we win, we lose long-term from the takeout. Our bets would never have an expectation greater than the track takeout.

In that podcast, they talked about how someone said computer teams are great for the public because they make the pools efficient. That person needs the shit slapped out of them because they are intentionally trying to mislead the public.

[Dave Schwartz]

Is there any reputable documentation that these magical whales exist to the detriment of non whales.

Seriously?

They've been interviewed, blogged, and even made public appearances.


re: Twin Double
While Twin Double started a bit rocky, according to my knowledge and experience, he's really talking sense.

I misunderstood when he was speaking of horizontal wagers being the extra stuff that the whales have access to.

I thought he meant Trifectas & Supers.
The challenge with those is that there are simply too many data points to update quickly with some of the archaic methods in place.

The bottleneck to getting closer-to-real-time data is that many of today's tracks simply do not have the out-going bandwidth to compute all those payoffs and send them every few seconds.

To illustrate how low the tech can be, consider that there are actually a couple of tracks that MAIL IN their charts. (That's why their results are always days behind.

There are also a few semi-rural tracks that still have dial-up connections to the web. Those speeds simply do not support large data transfers such as the matrix of all the bets taken.

There are also tracks that send in the "one-horse" and "two-horse" data very often, but accumulate the data for the 3-horse and more tickets.

That data gets sent in "periodically" which could mean nothing from 4 minutes to post until they are in the gate, and possibly later. (I'm actually quoting something told to me by a tech for a medium-sized track about how they did it.)
________
The point of that is that, yes, the whales may have access to that data but it may not be as reliable as we'd axpect.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I'll add my two dollars worth of thought (the high cost of inflation). Say these magical whales drive the win down to true odds and win accordingly making their money on the rebates. So if they bet on horse who's true probability is 50% of the win pool they win 50% . No loss to anyone else, unless ofcourse you are on the same horse. You lost the benefit of your single overlay. Now 50% of the time they lose and everyone else benefits.

I've been able to create a strategy where I can predict who the public should bet in a given race.


It actually works.

Since 25% of that the total pool (as mentioned in a recent article) is whale money, and because that money does not see the light of day until the horses are well out of the gate, we cannot possibly know who they actually WILL bet.

Even the whales don't know who the other whales are going to bet, or else they'd bet differently.

And less anyone see that as something nefarious - "Why can't I bet that late?" - we, you and I are betting just as they are: when the horses are entering the gate.

And virtually anyone can load their ticket(s) and press "send" with plenty of time to get in when there are still 4 or 5 horses to go in.

What about making a whole bunch of bets at once?
Did you know that there is an industry standard CSV file upload?

Now, not every ADW adheres to that standard and some fully ignore it, but my limited experience in that arena is that they will work with you to get past issues if you want to upload a file.

I believe it is (PA member) Gorrex that could discuss that. His (employer)ADW is most helpful.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I'll add my two dollars worth of thought (the high cost of inflation). Say these magical whales drive the win down to true odds and win accordingly making their money on the rebates. So if they bet on horse who's true probability is 50% of the win pool they win 50% . No loss to anyone else, unless ofcourse you are on the same horse. You lost the benefit of your single overlay. Now 50% of the time they lose and everyone else benefits.

Is there any reputable documentation that these magical whales exist to the detriment of non whales.

Where have you been living? These magical whales drive the value out of the pools in the wps pools on multiple horses, they also do the same in exacta pools and double pools. Their has been articles on the subject. They all get posted. I presented the math at least 50 times over the years. Meanwhile long term successful players have noticed theses effects and posted about them. RR and SJK are 2 I can name off of my head. At the very least listen to Maury Wolff on the Steve Byk show from a couple of weeks ago. What he says is not news to most of us but seems to be news to you.

We know for a fact theses teams have computers linked into racing’s computer. Now the claim has always been that the teams have the same info that we have. Basically what Jeff P just posted last night. My contention is how do we know that? If they have access to the computer and are making millions of dollars a year, seems fairly logical to me that at least some of the teams are going to use their sophisticated computer programs to extract additional data such as money bet since the last flash of the board and of course info on how much is bet on each combination of the pools that are supposedly not available to them. Horizontals and verticals. This is the type of info Twin Double is talking about.The more info they get coupled with huge rebates and teams of math and computer experts have just crushed the pools as I posted a short while back. A 63 percent reduction in 20 years when adjusted for inflation. The actual numbers in California are worse if you look at the chart in the financial times article.

So the question isn’t whether these magical whales exist. The question is why is racing all in on a completely failed concept, rebates. Moreover how much info are they privy too that we are not being told about. Why have they and why do they continue to destroy this industry? But don’t listen to me. According to Nitro, I am just a driving up fear and all is great in the racing world. What is more astounding to me is why regulatory bodies allow this to go on. Talk about drinking the rebate Kool-Aid.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

So the question isn’t whether these magical whales exist. The question is why is racing all in on a completely failed concept, rebates. Moreover how much info are they privy too that we are not being told about. Why have they and why do they continue to destroy this industry? But don’t listen to me. According to Nitro, I am just a driving up fear and all is great in the racing world. What is more astounding to me is why regulatory bodies allow this to go on. Talk about drinking the rebate Kool-Aid.

Because the racing industry "leaders" know that these 'whales' won't bet their money without the rebates...and they figure that they can't afford to lose their betting action. And these same industry leaders don't worry that the rest of us will stop betting due to the existence of these heavily-rebated "whales", because they consider us to be nothing but addicted morons who would only quit the game if we go broke. And, sadly...we the wagering public haven't done anything to make them change their minds about us.

[MJC922]

The real rubber meets the road is final odds. If you're still seeing overlays that win and only betting on those types doesn't clear a profit then I don't see where whales and rebates are the problem. If you're not seeing overlays anymore, or not seeing enough of them to make it worth your while, that's when I would consider whales and rebates as a valid excuse, in particular if you were legitimately a full-time profitable horseplayer at any point in your life which is about as rare as bigfoot so there's that.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because the racing industry "leaders" know that these 'whales' won't bet their money without the rebates...and they figure that they can't afford to lose their betting action. And these same industry leaders don't worry that the rest of us will stop betting due to the existence of these heavily-rebated "whales", because they consider us to be nothing but addicted morons who would only quit the game if we go broke. And, sadly...we the wagering public haven't done anything to make them change their minds about us.

It strange. There was concern about rebates 20 years ago. But the racing industry ignored those concerns and here we are 20 years later with an over 60% drop (after inflation) in betting by the public. They had access to these numbers, meet by meet, year by year and chose to continue on with a failed plan. Moreover, they had access to what they lost in live attendance, etc. Not only did they continue on with it, but they arrogantly boasted publicly and still do that their way is the only way that can work. Right now they are so dependent on this 30% or maybe 35%+ whale money. But 20 years ago whales only accounted for 5% of the pool. What business watches in real time over 20 straight years a policy destroy it's business and embrace it more as time goes on? It is so illogical. The whales cannot bet the amount of money that this industry has already lost in 20 years (if they bet 60% of the pools the rebates won't cover their losses). More importantly what kind of business decision is it to prioritize wholesale sales vs retail sales (what is their revenue on an on track bet vs some team at Elite? How much is that team at elite spending on admission and drinks etc), when their wholesale business drives away their retail business and their wholesale business is limited in growth? So what is the upside with catering to whales now? They cannot bet any more unless the industry is able to drive more public money into the pools. But they continue with a policy that has driven all the fish out of the sea very quickly. Most importantly those that jump in the pool decide that the water is too shark infested for their enjoyment. Now what can racing do with their marvelous rebate policy? Nothing. Just die.

By the way, contrary to your last sentence, the betting public has spoken loud and clear and has left the building. We are just dealing with an industry that is so completely clueless that they will blame everything but the obvious. Apparently the elephant has to take a big crap in the middle of the room before anyone from this industry sees it and most importantly takes the proper corrective action. But no worries, Indiana eliminated the jackpot bet and added another low percentage pick 5 (I like the gesture but seriously). They hear us loud and clear.


RE rebates. If you price this game properly and eliminate rebates the whales will still bet plenty (maybe 1/2 to 2/3rds of what they are currently betting)and still earn plenty. They just won't dominate like they are currently. Of course as you grow the game (adding fish into the sea) you increase their betting and over time their betting will become larger than it currently is. It is grade school math and basic logic. But apparently no decision maker in this industry is capable of either. But of course there is always state sponsored charity and slot revenues.