Long detailed article about the big teams. How does this grow the game? It doesn't

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by castaway01

People might not like it to hear, but what you're saying is just blunt reality. I'm not saying no one on the planet who isn't a whale can turn a profit this year. Sure, they could hit a big Pick 5, or they could find some sort of short-term hot streak that they get ahead on and then quit for the year. There's always that 1%.

But anyone who is seriously talking about taking on the "nerds" and how these geeks can't find those 10-1 shots, you know they don't even understand the current game. Because the CRW teams DO find those 10-1 shots...but after they get through betting, they're not 10-1 anymore! That's literally the whole issue...better gamblers with more money sucking value from the pools.

Right on!

[formula_2002]

based on the race given, kee race 8 on 10/20/2022, the implied singular bet on #13 was about $4862 assuming the win pool was about 65% of the given mutual wps pool. that's about a 1.16 percent change.

it would make for an interesting study of the % change in dollars bet as horses go into the gate and the final dollars. That would be a good indicator of how the single bet contributed to the overall impact on the betting pools.

I this case 1.16 percent does not seem to align with the impact suggested in the article

if the final bet made the odds on the #13 true odds, it only won 3% of the time.

just some of my thoughts

[biggestal99]

elite 2 and 17 are betting 1,000,000,000 dollars on a yearly basis and getting back 100,000,000 for doing so means racing model is indeed broke.

Allan

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[Michael]

For anyone who hasn't listened to Beyer & Pat Cummings on Steve Byk's tuesday podcast I highly suggest you take the time to do so.

https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/tuesd...-pat-cummings/

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Michael

For anyone who hasn't listened to Beyer & Pat Cummings on Steve Byk's tuesday podcast I highly suggest you take the time to do so.

https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/tuesd...-pat-cummings/

Twitter

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Michael

For anyone who hasn't listened to Beyer & Pat Cummings on Steve Byk's tuesday podcast I highly suggest you take the time to do so.

https://stevebyk.com/broadcast/tuesd...-pat-cummings/

Thanks for the heads up, always like to hear Beyer's thoughts. Enjoyed the Maury Wolff interview (next show).

[Poindexter]

Re Beyer, he is way to focused on the Rainbow 6. 1) You do not have to play it. That is not racing's problem. 2) Despite the fact that the Caw dominates the Rainbow 6, the mandatory payouts remain racing's best opportunity. Remember big payouts attract a lot of novice money. So while the public as a whole may not do very well in the limited pools that Pat Cummins researched, doesn't mean that the they are still not great opportunities for the seasoned horse player. The last 3 Rainbow 6 payouts I have looked at (The last 2 at Gulfstream and the last at Santa Anita had enormous payouts relative to a parlay). So yes it benefits the CAW more, because they get REBATES and they have the capital to attack it from all angles. That doesn't mean everyday horse players should not be attacking these mandatory payout pools.

Pat Cummins seems to think rebates are okay he just want more transparency on them. That is a ridiculous take. He is more aware of the damage that rebates cause then anyone and he cannot openly say rebates need to go.

Maury Wolff was the best overall interview of the 3. He like the others will not come out and speak against rebates. I believe he used to be a big time recipient of them, maybe he still is? They seem to want to limit rebates but not eliminate them. They also seem to like the NYRA approach of keeping them out of the pools. That is an option for a player that wants to have a tiny chance of surviving this game, it is not one that fixes the game or ever leads to the game being the very ugly stepchild in the advantage gambling market. It will not work. They can blow wind all they want. If you don't eliminate rebates this game will perish or will be simply completely dependent on slots and other charities (good luck with that).

By the way I am not sure if I heard Pat Cummins correctly but did i hear that Elite 7 (or something like that ) is getting 16% rebates, While some other elite is getting only 13% rebates (the poor souls). Is that average on all pools? These are ridiculous number if true. The non rebated horse player may as well just donate to a collection plate before entering the track, and save himself 5 hours.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Re Beyer, he is way to focused on the Rainbow 6. 1) You do not have to play it. That is not racing's problem. 2) Despite the fact that the Caw dominates the Rainbow 6, the mandatory payouts remain racing's best opportunity. Remember big payouts attract a lot of novice money. So while the public as a whole may not do very well in the limited pools that Pat Cummins researched, doesn't mean that the they are still not great opportunities for the seasoned horse player. The last 3 Rainbow 6 payouts I have looked at (The last 2 at Gulfstream and the last at Santa Anita had enormous payouts relative to a parlay). So yes it benefits the CAW more, because they get REBATES and they have the capital to attack it from all angles. That doesn't mean everyday horse players should not be attacking these mandatory payout pools.

Pat Cummins seems to think rebates are okay he just want more transparency on them. That is a ridiculous take. He is more aware of the damage that rebates cause then anyone and he cannot openly say rebates need to go.

Maury Wolff was the best overall interview of the 3. He like the others will not come out and speak against rebates. I believe he used to be a big time recipient of them, maybe he still is? They seem to want to limit rebates but not eliminate them. They also seem to like the NYRA approach of keeping them out of the pools. That is an option for a player that wants to have a tiny chance of surviving this game, it is not one that fixes the game or ever leads to the game being the very ugly stepchild in the advantage gambling market. It will not work. They can blow wind all they want. If you don't eliminate rebates this game will perish or will be simply completely dependent on slots and other charities (good luck with that).

By the way I am not sure if I heard Pat Cummins correctly but did i hear that Elite 7 (or something like that ) is getting 16% rebates, While some other elite is getting only 13% rebates (the poor souls). Is that average on all pools? These are ridiculous number if true. The non rebated horse player may as well just donate to a collection plate before entering the track, and save himself 5 hours.

I did not hear 16% but even if it was mentioned I can't possibly believe that kind of number.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I did not hear 16% but even if it was mentioned I can't possibly believe that kind of number.

No idea of what is possible today but almost 2 decades ago I can tell you that the rebate at PEN in the trifecta pool was 23%.

And I know that there people who got more than us.

Takeout was 33% as I recall.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

No idea of what is possible today but almost 2 decades ago I can tell you that the rebate at PEN in the trifecta pool was 23%.

And I know that there people who got more than us.

Takeout was 33% as I recall.

That should've been illegal on both counts.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...83099028709378

Thanks for your retweets of things everyone else has said 1000 times already. Truly a blight on the game.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Thanks for your retweets of things everyone else has said 1000 times already. Truly a blight on the game.

Butt hurt and irritated again? So sorry you're upset

[JustRalph]

If you haven’t taken the time to listen to the Steve Byk show posted in this thread, PLEASE DO IT! I finally found time.

If you don’t want to listen to all of it, then run it up to 1:11 into the show and set back and get ready to hear how big a sucker you are for playing anywhere but Oaklawn.

I hear numbers like 10-13% rebates and it kills me. Nobody can compete with that.

I still play a little when I travel on vacation and every couple of years I visit SHRP for a few hours. I stopped playing when I couldn’t tell what odds I would be getting. There was a time …..when I was putting about 5k a week thru the windows playing 2-3 days a week. Big weeks were 10-12 with my dad. Many years towards the end my ROI was just south of break even. No rebates ever. After my dad died my play went to maybe on weekends. Then the odds went south.

If I could get 10% rebates I can’t imagine what a difference it could have made.

Btw, Steve Byk is a saint for keeping that show going. I hope he’s figured out a way to make good money on it. He could be doing something else in media and getting paid well.

Anybody in the U.S. that uses “Bobs your uncle” on radio is ok with me.

[classhandicapper]

IMO we have to do a better job of separating categories of bettors.

There are CAWs, serious players, and casual players. If we are worried about the casual player, it’s not just the Jackpot 6 that’s a problem. It’s pretty much every bet with a higher take and greater volatility than WPS. Casual players are not going to calculate the fair values and construct tickets to compound value in exotics. They are just going to lose more money faster bucking a higher take. They’ll also likely have bankroll draining periods that make them want to quit if they focus on the tougher horizontals - jackpot or not.

What’s really going on is that non computer aided serious players are complaining because another set of serious players has better tools and bigger rebates. So they can’t take advantage of the fish anymore. Now they are becoming the fish.

Personally, I don’t think we should do anything about people using computers to help calculate fair odds lines, fair exacta and double prices, or even how much to bet into each pool. People have been doing things like that for as long as I’ve been around the game. They just did manually with PPs, clipboards, paper, and pencil.

What’s different is the CAWs can submit an enormous number of bets quickly and late enough to have an advantage over other serious bettors. . Even that would be hard to complain about since they probably developed those tools on their own, except maybe the industry should make tools like that available to everyone or block their use until everyone has them. Part of the track’s and ADWs job is to make it easier to bet.

The other thing is the often discussed rebates. At some point, the industry is better off with a lower take across the board than massive rebates for a select few.

The computers themselves, I don’t see how you can stop someone from using the available data, creating a database, and developing tools that help the player make better odds lines and construct better tickets.