Arkansas Derby - Gr1

[CheckMark]

Talked about him on Trust The Prophets this week along with the Florida Derby

I think Rocket Can is the real deal and is the one to beat for sure in this race

Should have a good setup with a honest pace and let's loose after and strides away to victory

YouTube

[Michael]

The Florida derby makes this race look bettable. I'm not so sure it is if I'm being honest. It's at the very least a more interesting race to look at.

Harlocap: Johnny V jumps off... Ricardo's job is to send. I think he's a $400k rabbit on loan for the day. He's deficient in vitamin-L and medicare forced a change in his primary care physician. I just can't see how a single five furlong work can take the wrinkles out of this one. It's possible Harlocap isolates himself on the front end and another race forms behind him.

Two Eagles River: This is the Value horse? maybe if you value losing your money! In all seriousness, do you bet this horse at 6/1 vs this field? Earned his fig going gate to wire setting a slow pace at 8 panels. Not today... not for me.

Airtime, Rocket Can, and Reincarnate (I have these 3 sitting off the first flight)

Airtime: is my value pick. 15/1 on the morning line... and I can easily see this one beating Angel of Empire to the punch. Might sit a perfect trip. My plan is to use underneath.

Rocket Can: doesn't need to win to make it into the derby. Contender for sure. I see this one showing up at the 2nd call. Mott+Alvarado+FrankFletcher = It's obvious this one will run very well.
They already know they're not beating Forte in the derby. This one's Live for sure.

Reincarnate: I'm going to argue the reason Reincarnate broke slow in the Rebel was the slop.That way all the nonsense arguments subsequent to his issues at the gate are moot. What I did see... was a horse that knew his job. I was impressed after seeing him get caught behind Bourbon Bash and boxed in by Red Route One. He wasn't going to win that day... but that's not the point. I liked how he shifted gears AFTER the trouble. The horse is likely very smart and athletic. I can easily see his odds change on the tote board after the gates open. One of those... we're at the quarter pole and his odds drop to 8/5 type deals. (which is why I'm not sending in a win bet)

Already has a seat at the derby table. Is the only other horse I think is a win contender. I can see taking 4/1 here... but my figs talked me off this horse. (using underneath) Doesn't need to peel the paint off the walls today.

as for the Red Route One...Big fan personally... my wallet says no.

My "I'm waiting for turf racing" action bet. Good Luck Everyone

7,8 / 5,6,7,8 / 1,5,6,7,8,10

[myohmyjustify]

My take on the Arkansas Derby.

Picks: 10-7-8-6

10--Red Route One -- Made for a great exacta when 2nd in the Rebel at 9-1 while encountering trouble. Has what seems to me to have a very strong closing kick, which will be aided by a drying out track (I am hoping for no more rain nor tornado), and the close-to-pace running styles of many players, including entry-mate Harlocap. The addition of blinkers is a plus and not a worry. He was too far back in his last two starts, 18 and 10 back after a half-mile. The blinkers should put him --in theory-- closer to mid pack and I hope this will not compromise his closing kick.

7--Rocket Can -- Should be the post-time favorite sandwiching his Holy Bull win with seconds to Forte and Confidence Game. Not afraid to bet this one straight if price is closer or better than his morning line 4-1. (Red Route One at 3-1 early is silly in my eyes.) Two wins and two seconds in 4 starts since going a route. One to beat.

8--Reincarnate -- Was way back due to trouble at the start in Rebel but I think if Johnny V deliberately takes him back to make a late run, it will be help his chances to win. There's too much early speed for my liking and the late runners should be at an advantage. I do not like the 5-2 morning line, though I get it.

6--Angel of Empire -- Only horse in race to win at today's 9 furlongs taking the Risen Star at 13-1. May get the same pace scenario today but will probably be over bet today as it is hard to look past Brad Cox in big races. I think the horse is a tad slow in the pace-speed figures I do to rate higher.

A few horses I will throw in on the back-end of my tri's and supers include, hoping for a home run:

2--Interlock Empire at 20-1, coming in off a 5-length maiden win in last;

3--Harlocap at 15-1, was part of the red-hot pace in the Risen Star and looks like the main speed in here.

5--Airtime at 15-1, ran bang-up first off Robertino Diodoro claim; loves it wet and will benefit from the 9 furlongs, too.


Good luck to everyone.

[groupie doll]

Originally Posted by Michael

Two Eagles River: This is the Value horse? maybe if you value losing your money! In all seriousness, do you bet this horse at 6/1 vs this field? Earned his fig going gate to wire setting a slow pace at 8 panels. Not today... not for me.

At his ML 10/1 the is value. Bet down not so sure. If the pace is to his liking he could hang on. Beat Disarm last out and that one was a somewhat well-regarded 2nd in the stakes debut.
The are must use. top pick. I'd give the a long look as well.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Talked about him on Trust The Prophets this week along with the Florida Derby

I think Rocket Can is the real deal and is the one to beat for sure in this race

Should have a good setup with a honest pace and let's loose after and strides away to victory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iM2p...ustTheProphets

That is very cool CheckMark

you're gonna go far.

I posted this in florida thread , so I will do it here.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...64793459273731


https://twitter.com/jason_kassa/stat...51767877058562


i mostly just post twitter to reinforce my own ideas, but the rare discussions are nice.

very bad at social media.

A lot of what I post is just text or visuals of a virtual 'notebook' kind of thing. I am not locked into conventional herd behavior. It's a nice surprise when actual interaction with people occur.

sometimes it is frustrating, sometimes I later do not want to interact with the same people I sought to interact with when posting...


Anyway, Reincarnate is a toss for me in the 'win' slot.
That opens some things up.

several scenarios
one of the scenarios is that Harlocap Two Eagles (either is good enough to at least take a shot at wiring the field, and the presence of both may take some of the late kick out of them) speeds in tandem mildly duel and arrive in the carry the lead to the stretch (they are mid range odds and would be an honest payday) until they get passed by a good stalker/tracker.
Angel of Empire seems obvious there. He's better than the other options Airtime would be the style match alternative. Red Route one certainly fits from further out. Reincarnate, Rocket Can are also fine to use considering Harlocap and Two Eagles are both in the Super, possibly the Tri...
here you would not toss Reincarnate as you are keying both of the tandem speeds that control the pace under the few contenders.

or maybe the two speeds who seem like huge overlays do not produce at least one Trifecta hitter,, and the race falls apart like the preps with their closing flow? Then just bet the favorites, except don't use Reincarnate in the exacta. Use King Russell underneath in this scenario

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That is very cool CheckMark

you're gonna go far.

I posted this in florida thread , so I will do it here.

Thanks Robert much appreciated! I have been on 3 times for that show and hopefully a few more times to showcase my rookie talents

Good luck with your picks today my friend going to be a great race

[Aerocraft67]

Bourbon Bash getting some longshot attention from the sharps, notably Mike Beer picks him on top. But he looks exposed to me, and I like his pace prospects least among these.

Among the lighter raced here and won from 10th last time out. This just seems like too much and I prefer the other (albeit more obvious) late runners

Probably gets the lead but just don't see a wire to wire finish here. It will have company up there, if not a duel. I may keep it underneath, especially at 15-1.

Getting some attention here, but I'm with Michael, not betting him. I actually prefer the one to his inside—similar, only that one has an edge in figs. And I'm lukewarm on at best.

Gets some sneaky class points winning that last allowance race. Pace setup not bad but needs to improve late kick. Could be worth including deep at the ML price or better.

When two top public handicappers proclaim "under the radar..." it shows up on the radar. Arguably the class of the field winning the Risen Star, and from way back. Logical choice I'll emphasize, but will get stingy at a short price.

No real knock on him but a short price, which is not horrible at 3rd ML choice. Highest TFUS fig running second to monster Forte in FoY. No pace problem. Sure, he's a player here.

Lights up on TFUS form; speed, pace, class. But the Sham bias (and possibly connected uncoupled entrants) flattered him, and his trouble last in the slop is very obvious. Kind of have to fade him if he's favored, but otherwise more or les as worthy as the other chalk.

Way outclassed, can't make a case.

I kind of like this one best. Speed fig, check. Pace match, check. Class a bit fuzzy, but good as any. Half his form is slop. I'll take the glass-half-full side of adding blinkers.

I like and . Not particularly against and , but don't want to load up on chalk. The and are kind of usable. Just not feeling a big shot in this one.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Bourbon Bash getting some longshot attention from the sharps, notably Mike Beer picks him on top. But he looks exposed to me, and I like his pace prospects least among these.

Among the lighter raced here and won from 10th last time out. This just seems like too much and I prefer the other (albeit more obvious) late runners

Probably gets the lead but just don't see a wire to wire finish here. It will have company up there, if not a duel. I may keep it underneath, especially at 15-1.

Getting some attention here, but I'm with Michael, not betting him. I actually prefer the one to his inside—similar, only that one has an edge in figs. And I'm lukewarm on at best.

Gets some sneaky class points winning that last allowance race. Pace setup not bad but needs to improve late kick. Could be worth including deep at the ML price or better.

When two top public handicappers proclaim "under the radar..." it shows up on the radar. Arguably the class of the field winning the Risen Star, and from way back. Logical choice I'll emphasize, but will get stingy at a short price.

No real knock on him but a short price, which is not horrible at 3rd ML choice. Highest TFUS fig running second to monster Forte in FoY. No pace problem. Sure, he's a player here.

Lights up on TFUS form; speed, pace, class. But the Sham bias (and possibly connected uncoupled entrants) flattered him, and his trouble last in the slop is very obvious. Kind of have to fade him if he's favored, but otherwise more or les as worthy as the other chalk.

Way outclassed, can't make a case.

I kind of like this one best. Speed fig, check. Pace match, check. Class a bit fuzzy, but good as any. Half his form is slop. I'll take the glass-half-full side of adding blinkers.

I like and . Not particularly against and , but don't want to load up on chalk. The and are kind of usable. Just not feeling a big shot in this one.

the 4 is getting hammered in the doubles.

[PhantomOnTour]

TRI
w w
w w

WIN

[Aerocraft67]

Win
Exacta +; /
Trifecta //
Super ///

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

or maybe the two speeds who seem like huge overlays do not produce at least one Trifecta hitter,, and the race falls apart like the preps with their closing flow? Then just bet the favorites, except don't use Reincarnate in the exacta. Use King Russell underneath in this scenario

Hope somebody was able to configure a $261.80 exacta with that. I had none of the , who ruined all my verticals. Win bet on the yielded me a -38% return. Beats -100% I guess.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Hope somebody was able to configure a $261.80 exacta with that. I had none of the , who ruined all my verticals. Win bet on the yielded me a -38% return. Beats -100% I guess.

I guess you all can say I am red boarding now, but this is the first time seeing this thread. I got lucky in the Arkansas Derby.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Hope somebody was able to configure a $261.80 exacta with that. I had none of the , who ruined all my verticals. Win bet on the yielded me a -38% return. Beats -100% I guess.

The only thing I can say about that 9 horse was that he looked great in the post parade. Otherwise, I'm never getting to that horse. Is that horse going to the derby?


Edit: people get mad at "red boarding" I'm not one of them... Nice hit fast4522

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by fast4522

I guess you all can say I am red boarding now, but this is the first time seeing this thread. I got lucky in the Arkansas Derby.

nice hit

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Michael

The only thing I can say about that 9 horse was that he looked great in the post parade. Otherwise, I'm never getting to that horse. Is that horse going to the derby?


Edit: people get mad at "red boarding" I'm not one of them... Nice hit fast4522

Well to be honest the 6 was noticed by by me for 9-2, I was cut up who to bet to win so I just did Tri box and I got on the 6 late to key exacta.