Florida Derby

[f2tornado]

Jungfrau - W. Mott
West Coast Cowboy - S. Joseph, Jr.
Shaq Diesel - C. Gatis
Mage - G. Delgado
Mr. Peeks - S. Joseph, Jr.
Nautical Star - S. Joseph, Jr.
Il Miracolo - A. Sano
Mr Ripple - S. Joseph, Jr.
Cyclone Mischief - D. Romans
Fort Bragg - T. Yakteen
Forte - T. Pletcher
Dubyuhnell - D. Gargan

This race has produced more roses winners in the last 30 years than any other prep, plus one DQ. Horses in this feature that didn't outright win have not historically fared well in the Derby, granted Code or Honor and Simplification helped fill gimmicks in recent years. The race has also been quite chalky in the WPS pools excluding the Bodexpress maiden filling the exacta at 71-1 in 2019. Early weather forecast suggests a fast track.

The is going to be tough to beat but cappers will get paid handsomely should another horse pop here. Saffie has a few horses entered and could conceivably experiment here otherwise there are no obvious rabbits, much like what we saw in Louisiana. The lightly raced is the inside "speed" of what speed exists and will probably be in a good spot early. Saez up is a big plus. I can see this one improving. The with JC up can contest the pace but has yet to exhibit a closing punch and now we're going longer. The is a curiosity having scratched out of an easier Sunland (on paper) than this event. Hard to ignore JR at this track but yet another horse that has failed to demonstrate any closing move. Maybe the hated the quirky Tampa surface. A return to Remsen form would make him competitive here in the figures department. I'm coming up relatively empty shopping for a bomber to fill gimmicks. The flashed the second best Brisnet LP figure of all contenders and could potentially pick off enough horses to fill deeper gimmicks.

Win bet on at 4/5 or better. Single in the horizontal plays.
Dime Super: / = $6, then bet some combos harder. What I should have done in Louisiana that cost me a big prize.
Watch the tote for better exacta pays.

[gov135]

I am thinking a hotter pace develops than what paper form suggests, due to some of these horses being overmatched. That can lead to ‘send them’ and ‘let’s see if we can get home’.

Best shot for upset seems to be but outside post another check in the negative column.

Agree need to key obvious favorite for any value here. Must include

[Suff]

I'll be there, big crowd, big names. Photos to follow.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Jungfrau - W. Mott
West Coast Cowboy - S. Joseph, Jr.
Shaq Diesel - C. Gatis
Mage - G. Delgado
Mr. Peeks - S. Joseph, Jr.
Nautical Star - S. Joseph, Jr.
Il Miracolo - A. Sano
Mr Ripple - S. Joseph, Jr.
Cyclone Mischief - D. Romans
Fort Bragg - T. Yakteen
Forte - T. Pletcher
Dubyuhnell - D. Gargan

This race has produced more roses winners in the last 30 years than any other prep, plus one DQ. Horses in this feature that didn't outright win have not historically fared well in the Derby, granted Code or Honor and Simplification helped fill gimmicks in recent years. The race has also been quite chalky in the WPS pools excluding the Bodexpress maiden filling the exacta at 71-1 in 2019. Early weather forecast suggests a fast track.

The is going to be tough to beat but cappers will get paid handsomely should another horse pop here. Saffie has a few horses entered and could conceivably experiment here otherwise there are no obvious rabbits, much like what we saw in Louisiana. The lightly raced is the inside "speed" of what speed exists and will probably be in a good spot early. Saez up is a big plus. I can see this one improving. The with JC up can contest the pace but has yet to exhibit a closing punch and now we're going longer. The is a curiosity having scratched out of an easier Sunland (on paper) than this event. Hard to ignore JR at this track but yet another horse that has failed to demonstrate any closing move. Maybe the hated the quirky Tampa surface. A return to Remsen form would make him competitive here in the figures department. I'm coming up relatively empty shopping for a bomber to fill gimmicks. The flashed the second best Brisnet LP figure of all contenders and could potentially pick off enough horses to fill deeper gimmicks.

Win bet on at 4/5 or better. Single in the horizontal plays.
Dime Super: / = $6, then bet some combos harder. What I should have done in Louisiana that cost me a big prize.
Watch the tote for better exacta pays.

you're coming up empty becuse there's too many horses that don't seem to belong in the race.

seems like the only horse that might give forte a run for the win is fort bragg imo. and that horse even comes with questions. then there seems to be a few behind him in the pecking order.

this doesn't seem like a good betting race. especially more since the first couple runners on every ticket after forte will be the 4/9/10....

now if you can get the 1 into it, maybe you can win more than an artisanal coffee

[boys at tosconova]

what really sucks in addition to his post is forte doesn't even have to win and will be most likely<even money.

the ark derby is a much better race to bet imo

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

: Saffie has a few horses entered and could conceivably experiment here otherwise there are no obvious rabbits, much like what we saw in Louisiana.

I would think that the maiden Mr. Peeks is entered as a rabbit, especially with common ownership with another Joseph horse Nautical Star. Mr. Peeks has been on the lead in two 6f sprints for his previous trainer.

This is one of the worst major Derby prep fields in recent memory. A quarter of the horses are coming off loses at odds of 50-1 or more. A third of the horses were beaten 15 lengths or more in their most recent start. And every horse aside from the heavy favorite lost ground in the stretch in their last start.

There's no plan with Fort Bragg other than he's one of several interchangeable ex-Baffert horses that needs somewhere to run without having to butt heads with more fancied stablemates. Baffert tried this move a couple years ago with the similarly profiled Spielberg to no effect (ran 7th). The only calling card Fort Bragg has is finishing in front of CA's best hope Practical Move in a maiden race last fall. However, he was DQ'd from that win for interference and subsequently has been beaten open lengths by that same rival in multiple starts. Could hit the board given the paltry field but he's only interesting as a barometer between the CA and FL 3yo crop.

In desperation for some action, I'll draw a line through Jungfrau's horrendous Withers effort, a race that visually ended up a horrific battle of attrition anyways. Jungfrau had slight trouble at the break then had his head ripped off by his rider both going in and coming out of the clubhouse turn. Not shockingly, both horse and rider gave up the ghost from there in a non-effort. That Mott still comes back for the FL Derby with this well-bred Juddmonte horse is the only hope that there's something there. That and he does have a win over the track. Otherwise, you are simply left with a horse that has never actually finished first in a race.

Forte over Jungfrau. Lengths in-between irrelevant.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Man, this is an ugly field for a G1 Derby prep.

Take away Forte, and the field is a combined 14 for 47 with a single Graded Stakes win. Imagine Forte goes off at about 2/5.

We all know about the outside posts being dreadful at Gulfstream going 9F, so I might take a stab to beat Forte with the Jungfrau and Mage. Mott has been very successful at this Gulfstream meet in big races, so maybe the finally puts it all together.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Suff

I'll be there, big crowd, big names. Photos to follow.

lsast year i couldn't get in the private room, so we had a barbeque. if i was there this year i'd still have the barbeque!

[boys at tosconova]

pretty brutal trying to find a longshot under forte and keying with the 4/9/10


maybe mr ripple.......then wc cowboy. maybe even nautical star. horse has some work to do but his last win was visually impressive and could be good racehorse. and if forte bottoms the field and wins by 10 nautical star could pick up the pieces coming off the pace.

i suggested the 1 but the horse doesn't really grab you as an confidence play as a longshot whatsoever. really hard use a few of the others.

the 12 just seems like he's in bad spot coming off bad race as well.. but can't discard completely because of how bad 1/2 the field is.

i wonder how much the 1/2/6/8/12 bring to the ticket in triples should any hit the board.. seems obv the 2/8/12 would be less

[Nitro]

GULFSTREAM PK SAT 4/1 -FLA DERBY - R14 - 1&1/8 Mi…….

PP	M/L	ENTRY			PROFILE
#1	20/1	Jungfrau			ON/90/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK
#2	20/1	West Coast Cowboy	MK/95/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK		
#3	30/1	Shaq Diesel		OM/85/XWO/
#4	10/1	Mage			OM/96/GWO/ RACED OVER TRK
#5	30/1	Mr. Peeks		MK/89/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK		
#6	30/1	Nautical Star		ON/95/ XWO- 
#7	30/1	Il Miracolo		OM/83/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK
#8	30/1	Mr. Ripple		OM/92/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK
#9	8/1	Cyclone Mischief	OM/100/XWO/ RACED OVER TRK
#10	5/1	Fort Bragg		OM/99/XWO/
#11	4/5	Forte				ON/105/GWO/RACED OVER TRK
#12	6/1	Dubyuhnel			ON/90/ XWO/ LIKES SLY

This race is loaded with early speed.
It looks like a perfect scenario for those entries coming just off the pace.
The only dynamic problem becomes navigating around those tiring during the race.
The problem becomes figuring out which of the speed types will improve and hang on for a piece.
The best of those running ON the pace should be the , and possibly (with a big improvement)
Of the pace setters the , , and seem best and only the hasn’t raced over the track.

With all the early speed in this race I don’t see any of the front runners wiring this field.
For now, I’m tossing the , , , and (seems to prefer off going).
My final choices and tosses will be based on how the betting shapes up.
In the meantime, I’m leaning toward keying both the and with the , , , , and for vertical play.

GL

[Geno_Gino]

Given that this is the Wonder Kid's home track where it seems the impossible is often the probable (love those magic hay and oats), I'll key #5 (the sprinter) on top of a few and hope that he runs a 94 Beyer stretching out.

[Robert Fischer]

always a favorite Derby prep

[zico20]

So many in here should not be running. It goes without saying the is the best and should win but after that who knows! The appears to only be able to run on an off track plus the bad post makes him an easy toss. Can't bet the after that last race. have no business in the race. The problem with the is he backs up in the stretch but is improving. Not sold on Fort Bragg being a future graded stakes winner, think he isn't that good.

Trifecta play is with a super of with with with and then a smaller play switching the and

[Robert Fischer]

Twitter

Twitter

i mostly just post twitter to reinforce my own ideas, but the rare discussions are nice.

very bad at social media.

A lot of what I post is just text or visuals of a virtual 'notebook' kind of thing. I am not locked into conventional herd behavior. It's a nice surprise when actual interaction with people occur.

sometimes it is frustrating, sometimes I later do not want to interact with the same people I sought to interact with when posting...


Anyway, Reincarnate is a toss for me in the 'win' slot.
That opens some things up.

several scenarios
one of the scenarios is that Harlocap Two Eagles (either is good enough to at least take a shot at wiring the field, and the presence of both may take some of the late kick out of them) speeds in tandem mildly duel and arrive in the carry the lead to the stretch (they are mid range odds and would be an honest payday) until they get passed by a good stalker/tracker.
Angel of Empire seems obvious there. He's better than the other options Airtime would be the style match alternative. Red Route one certainly fits from further out. Reincarnate, Rocket Can are also fine to use considering Harlocap and Two Eagles are both in the Super, possibly the Tri...
here you would not toss Reincarnate as you are keying both of the tandem speeds that control the pace under the few contenders.

or maybe the two speeds who seem like huge overlays do not produce at least one Trifecta hitter,, and the race falls apart like the preps with their closing flow? Then just bet the favorites, except don't use Reincarnate in the exacta. Use King Russell underneath in this scenario

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[jay68802]

10 of the 12 runners here show an E or E/P running style. 6 of them show 6 or more speed points. Forte has done nothing wrong. Race sets up for him. Has a big problem with the post position here. Not many winners have been drawn outside and won at GP.

[B]Forte[/B has been the most impressive to me. Think he is one of two so far that have shown true ability to win the Derby. That said, think there is a price horse here that can be bet.

Nautical Star has a lot going for him. Got way to far back in his first race, but still made up ground while wide. Was a lot closer in next, went faster earlier, and was still able to finish. The pace line from Bris has him running 90 / 95 / 90. The evenness of this line says that this horse wants more ground. He is also the lone closer in a race that can set up for him. Add in a 30/1 ML, and can bet this horse in a lot of positions.