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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,033
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"Anticipation"
“Anticipation"
“You can never know about the days to come
But we think about them anyway.”
Yes, those opening lyrics from Carly Simon’s 1971 hit-song, “Anticipation," are an apt analogy to the collective financial community’s awaiting of the Fed’s decision, tomorrow, on their interest-rate policy.
Does the Fed raise rates by 25 basis-points or do they "stand pat"? As Shakespeare penned in “Hamlet": “That is the question.”
As I continue, let’s make one thing perfectly clear, this choice, in either case, has ramifications. If the Fed decides to “stand pat,” are they saying, “We’re not as ardent as we have been about containing inflation. Are we being driven by exogenous events, i.e., banking issues. I ask, "Is this possible 'backing off' a signal to the markets, that the 'punch bowl' is no longer off-limits,. Is it, after a brief respite, 'business as usual?'”
But what if, I conjecture, the Fed announces on Wednesday that they're raising rates by 25 basis-points? There are those who might consider that “tokenism,” a muted, wishy-washy, “dovish" approach. Hardly a dent in the inflationary cycle. Yet, as far as fighting inflation, it is better to do something than nothing at all? However, some might consider it a tepid response to a needed full-blown “shot across the bow” approach to inflation.
At this point, I believe we all realize the obvious: inflation erodes. I don’t care how much you're making, for some it may not be enough to keep up with “the ravages" of inflation.
Personally, as a pensioner, I can attest to the difficulties brought forth by inflation. It’s analogous to swimming against the incoming tide.
Moreover, I’m most anticipatory as to the Fed’s decision. Yet I’m just as interested as to what Chairman Powell will have to say about a half-hour after the decision has been rendered. If it’s zero, does this represent a "sea-change," or is the Fed’s decision just "a blip" on the radar screen, a "catch- your-breath" break from the policy of reigning in inflation. One might contend that the banking “crisis” is “lurking in the shadows."
In concluding, I’ll express my concern that I wish I knew more about the severity of the recent banking "crisis." Are other banks in trouble? To add to that is the influence, in this day-and-age, of social media. It can become like a "loud speaker" to those who read its posts. True or not, it can influence. It can, if allowed to, create a frenzy. What I call, “The running of the bulls at Pamplona."
In concluding, as Carly Simon sang over a half-century ago, “These are the good old days…” But wait. These aren’t “old days,” they’re now. One day hence. What will the Fed do? I don’t want to sound too dramatic, but whatever the Fed decides, it will most certainly be impactful. Their decision will likely move the markets.
Yes, as Carly Simon sang: “Anticipation."
__________________
Walt (Teach)
"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.
"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)
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