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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,033
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"Black Swan": The Uncertain World We Live In
It's been a several days since I last opined about one of my favorite stock-market topics, gold and precious metals.
Since then, mid-May, gold has been what I like to refer to as "easing." Nothing precipitous, mind you, but a decline, nonetheless.
Let me say at this point (repetition does lend emphasis) why I've kept between 5% and 10% of my portfolio in gold and silver stocks. In a word, make that two: "Black Swan." The unexpected. The calamitous. In a historical context, a Pearl Harbor-like event.
That brings me not to the early-1940s, but to the present, June 2023. There are, in a manner of speaking, "brush fires," everywhere. Not the least of which is the Russo-Ukraine conflict. That conflict appears to be widening. Maybe, it the "new face" of war: drones. They are becoming, by the week, more and more sophisticated. They can go any where, do just about any thing, even striking The Kremlin. All this is done, miles and miles away, by remote-control. What comes out of this, in my opinion, is an ever-increasing potential for escalation.
As this Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, now well over a year, the casualties and destruction continue to mount. In my opinion, in a sense, this conflict is not unlike World War I's "trench warfare." In "The Great War," for months and months on end, the "lines" barely budged. Victories were gained begrudgingly and with horrific casualty rates on both sides.
As I finalize my thoughts, I ask, "Could this European conflict widen? Could other nations become and more involved? Could, Heaven forbid, this relatively localized matter, suddenly and unexpectedly, turn into World War III?"
That, in a nutshell, is why I own gold stocks. Oh, those stocks, from time to time, languish, but then, when you least expect it, an event raises it's "ugly head" and the world as we know it, is sometimes, almost instantaneously, not what it was the day before.
In conclusion, I have health insurance, car insurance, homeowner's insurance, etc. I hope I don't need to use my coverage, but, as the saying goes: "Better safe than sorry."
In that respect, I feel the same way about gold. It's what I call a "just in case" holding. Yes, in a manner of speaking, an "insurance policy."
Finally, gold is my "insurance policy" against "the unknown." It's a "shield" that I believe can blunt the impact of unforeseen events. Events that can impact not just my life and my family's, but the world; that is an occurrence that most, in the financial community, would call, a "Black Swan" event.
__________________
Walt (Teach)
"Walt, make a 'mental bet' and lose your mind." R.N.S.
"The important thing is what I think of myself."
"David and Lisa" (1962)
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