Louisiana Derby

[Michael]

I took the liberty to cap the race earlier in the week to see if my brain would process this race differently. Nope, I have the same thoughts today as I did earlier in the week.

The only win bet contenders for me are Jace's Road, Kingsbarns, and Sun Thunder. My profiles point to Jace's road and Sun Thunder. My Pace and Speed Figures say Pletcher's going to take out the bamboo stick.

The morning line on Sun Thunder and KingsBarns should be switched. Neverthless, I believe Kingsbarns will likely be closer to 7/2 and Sun Thunder closer to 6/1. Most people would likely say Geroux is a hard send. Which the luke warm pace makes it easier to put a line through Sun Thunder on top... and Stevie Wonder tweeted about Jace's Road. Which leads me to believe I have the same opinion as the public.

No win bets, no exactas... I'm going to play a trackchampion trifecta for action and head to the gym.

, / , , , / ,, , , ,

As for the UAE Derby - I'm more likely to bet this race... to win. I like the Dura Erede at 4/1 or higher.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Geno_Gino

Looks like a good betting race. I am going with #5, Disarm, and will key him over the 2, 4, 6, and 7. Good luck to everyone wagering!

good luck Ge-no Ge-no!

man that is a nice animal. Homebred in a serious team w/ class breeding. Taken along relatively slowly
1st start - ouch what is 'kickback'? ran fine
2ndd - boom Saratoga MSW not a very big guy but looks GREAT.
mild setbacks? Just patience and bringing along slowly carefully?
This guy is going to have a career. I mean, he's trying to be a stallion himself. Comes back at 3 and hard-hitter Hartman got that oil painting beast running loose on the lead?, DISARM ran fine. Didn't win which helps the price here. Maybe go to the Arkansas Derby? or the LAD? OK.

Supposedly training well against that relentless gray Shopper's Revenge...
That 1 was brought along a little harder. We may see Disarm move up and grow up a little bit here in fitness/performance.

my only problem w/ Disarm is that a lot of the good handicappers can see him clearly.
Lot of moving parts in this race.

[Michael]

Life comes at you quick. I lost the UAE Derby without even betting. Not exactly a time zone scientist.

[PhantomOnTour]

Tapit's Conquest not listed among the early scratches.
By all accounts, Franco did not make the trip to New Orleans today, and the word was that TC would be scratched.

Stay tuned...

[Robert Fischer]

wooo

the way i see it

1. Not a heck of a lot of pace projected here
2. Everybody sees that

Kingsbarn is about a 2nd Choice odds here? You know he capitalizes on tJhis projected pace...
Style is tracking/rating-on-the-lead. Quality horse. I'm not big on a win opinion but has a decent chance of hitting the board.

Jace's Road - now I don't like anyone using my nickname "Jace"...
Brad Cox has a good 'hand'
uncoupled trio of entries and this 11 is naturally forward. Posted outside, and want to secure a good position. He also has to put in some work for his team.

it's a soft projected pace... Pletcher is bringing that horse over here?
Who we gonna call?
Big Jace
Cox's other Instant Coffee Tapit's Conquest are later runners and can't afford to let Pletcher and company, jog.

Sun Thunder is a toss at anywhere near 5/1. At 10-15/1 you use him on your ticket. At 5/1 he's a takeout reduction.

Curly Jack You know, I'm always here. It's not always clear, but Curly Jack has been thrown to the wolves and he wasn't embarrassed. He's one of the only ones in here that has had to run against the grain. However, he only did it mildly. Does not have the quality and class to be on my 'Win' radar. Another factor in the right direction is the connections here. Tom Amoss has been playing hard ball w/ the big boys.
Curly Jack in fine condition and fitness. Needs to play a part of the pace. It could be him, the 6 and big jace... Few factors (including the mid-long odds) moving in his direction as a key underneath trifectas/supers. You just single him under good tickets for a little lean elegant ticket structure. You toss the 4, but key the 3 underneath

No Wager for me. Should be a great race. There are two late pick 5s. Juicy late races on the card are as intersting as the earlier stakes p5.

Good luck All DAY PA

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Tapit's Conquest not listed among the early scratches.
By all accounts, Franco did not make the trip to New Orleans today, and the word was that TC would be scratched.

Stay tuned...

He is in...Reylu gets the mount

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

He is in...Reylu gets the mount

good info.

This horse is better than his odds but not in my 'As'.

Some would argue that the jock change was beneficial.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

He is in...Reylu gets the mount

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

https://twitter.com/EMD4ME/status/1639680119731281920

Well that makes me feel good about betting him

[Aerocraft67]

Had a hard time discriminating these runners. They all seem to carve out a suitable role in the pace scenario. Most have some good figs or plenty of upside. Let me try to break this down after poring over the PPs, thread, and some public handicapper previews.

I guess we can toss the . O.K., 11 to go.

The doesn't do much for me, either, but my 11th favorite is already getting hard to dismiss entirely. Just seems like an obligatory shot rather than any clever chance to get the money.

Here's where it gets weird: the , Disarm. I'd nearly dismissed him on paper, but then I see Beer and Illman both on him, and Robert Fischer admiring his prospects here. I can't tell the upside promise from lack of experience on this one, but apparently it's more obvious to the sharps. Aragona and Milkowski were not impressed, though. Staring down single-digit odds, I'll let this fourth ML choice beat me.

Speaking of Aragona and Milkowski, folks are asking, "where's the speed?" Those two make a compelling case for Jace's Road, in a race conspicuously lacking for pace in a field of 12. TFUS Pace Projector has on the front, but that one seems more prone to stalk, and a cut below the top tier here in only its third race. Upside is there, but so's the short third-choice price. Maybe the is too logical, but if double-digit odds hold at 6th choice or more, it's a bet.

The and stand out on figs, from the same allowance race on these grounds last out, but Milkowski acknowledged Aragona's skepticism there. The may be the most exposed in the field—I'll quote Markus Hersh, "how much improvement could he have?" If I have to take one of these, it's .

What to make of the running here after connections signaling otherwise? Beer thinks they should send this one. Underwhelming flattening out in the Risen Star, as strong a race as any here have run in. Inclined to use him at double-digit odds, but he's on that bubble with for fourth choice.

One of five 12-1 contenders for sixth ML choice, maybe the gets most overlooked. It's faced the toughest competition, including one of only two G1 races run by these (the other by the favorite). Thing is, the corresponding performances were uninspiring. Maybe there's a sneaky distance advantage here. Usable if it fades below the ML pecking order.

Maybe is the more subtle Asmussen trainee than the . Santana has ridden both, winds up on this one. The big "if" is the break, followed by gaining a bit more position off the rail than projected, followed by whether it fades off that 12-1 tier. That's a lot of "ifs," but they point to a solid value in the vertical mix.

The main knock on the top two is chalk. And late running style in a race curiously devoid of pace. I'll use them defensively in deeper verticals.

Where's that leave me?






I'll come back for wagers later.

[zico20]

Not a particularly strong field and I am not crazy about the Everyone except the could hit the board. My pick is the over the

[Aerocraft67]

Win
Exacta +++
Trifecta ,,,,/,,,/,,,
Superfecta ,,,,/,,,,,,,/,,,/,,,

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

The immediate question for me is, where's the speed?

My best guess is the #6 Kingsbarns for Pletcher/Prat/Spendthrift.
My humble figures have his last race with the top pace numbers by a fairly wide margin, and I think he could be a dangerous if he gets away early.
Hopefully, Prat will ride him like he's the chief pace player and establish a clear lead.
Anywhere near his 6-1 ML and this colt is my key runner.
Will use with all three Cox runners.

I feel even stronger about the after seeing how this track has been playing. Prat either goes right to the top or lays all over the , whom I think he can roll by whenever he wants.

Huge Ex: 6-2
Ex: 6 w 1-9-11
Ex: 2-9 w 6
Big Fat Gnarly Win Bet: 6

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Win
Exacta +++
Trifecta ,,,,/,,,/,,,
Superfecta ,,,,/,,,,,,,/,,,/,,,

Game on, dude

[Robert Fischer]

dime super
all except (4,7,8,12)/all except (4,7,8,12)/all/
all except (4,7,8,12)/all except (4,7/8,12)//all

exacta
11/1,2,3,69
123,6,9/11

1/1,2,3,6911
123,6,911/1