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Old 03-01-2023, 05:45 PM   #16
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At least its amusing that Meadow thinks he is making me think... Not. He is making me laugh because he thinks he is opening my handicapping mind. Riiiiigght.
We get it. No one can make you think. That explains a lot.
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Old 03-01-2023, 05:56 PM   #17
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Yeah PA. You like it when I get "triggered" as you say. Now I've read 20% of the book and he says " this book is devoted more to questions than to answers".

At least its amusing that Meadow thinks he is making me think... Not. He is making me laugh because he thinks he is opening my handicapping mind. Riiiiigght.
I haven't read the book...eating popcorn waiting for others who have.
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Old 03-01-2023, 06:02 PM   #18
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I might be wrong but...

I would gladly pick up the dinner tab if I could sit down and converse about horseracing with a horseplayer that I respect. And this includes Barry Meadow...or Andy Beyer...or James Quinn. It also includes some of the members here, like Andy Serling...Cj...PA-Mike...and the Mountainman. That's what an investment in a good handicapping book is to me: A chance to listen to the thoughts of an honest and seasoned player who has been through the gambling wars that I too have participated in for far too long...for the price of a meal in a cheap restaurant.

I don't particularly look for "answers" when I read handicapping books. Sometimes the right question lights a little bulb inside my head...and I find a way to the "answer" all by myself. That proves to be a more satisfying experience...IMO.
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Old 03-01-2023, 06:22 PM   #19
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I forgot to mention ReplayRandall...with whom I have had more than a few enlightening phone conversations during the last few years.
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Old 03-01-2023, 07:08 PM   #20
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We get it. No one can make you think. That explains a lot.
You miss my point. What Meadows is saying is the level I was on as an apprentice in this game. I estimate 99% of all horse players playing more than a year are well aware of of what he is talking about. Its nothing new.
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Old 03-01-2023, 07:47 PM   #21
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I forgot to mention ReplayRandall...with whom I have had more than a few enlightening phone conversations during the last few years.
Oh, I thought you were being serious.
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Old 03-01-2023, 08:54 PM   #22
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Oh, I thought you were being serious.
Feeling the love...
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Old 03-01-2023, 10:06 PM   #23
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The good handicapping books pay for themselves at the window. That's how I judge a "good" book. Barry's book paid for itself... I'll leave it at that.

My copy is also signed by Barry... which I think is very cool. (Pretty sure you can still buy copys from his website and he will personalize it for you)
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Old 03-01-2023, 10:19 PM   #24
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You miss my point. What Meadows is saying is the level I was on as an apprentice in this game. I estimate 99% of all horse players playing more than a year are well aware of of what he is talking about. Its nothing new.
I didn't miss your point but you sure missed mine. Veteran membership here know that you are the self-appointed guru of handicapping. From your posts there has been no evidence that you are but I digress. If you learned nothing from Meadow's book then you have shut off your mind to anything beyond what you already know. Fine by me; your pool money is as good as anyone else's.

For the rest of us who aren't "gurus", the book is a worthwhile read. It's realistic and doesn't propose that there are any magic factors that will lead to riches. As others have posted the data tables are a bit out of date, and if anything, the ROI numbers are probably slightly lower than when the book was published. To me the value of Skeptical Handicapping is Meadow's narrative. Light scoffs at the fact that there are more questions than answers in the book, but most handicappers need to be aware of all the questions. Clearly I am not as gifted as Mr Guru so there were some questions that gave me a better insight into certain handicapping categories. Why not learn from someone who played professionally?

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What's the difference between this book and Percentages and Probabilities 2022?
I can't speak of P&P 2022 as I only own the 2012 version, but if the structure is the same then Dave Schwartz and Meadow/Massa looked at the main factors in slightly different ways. Meadow looks at more specific situations based on factors available in HTR, such as different angles for 2TS who won their MSW debut. Schwartz creates tables of more general handicapping categories that have larger sample sizes such as recency and last race gains and losses. Dave measures $NET and Barry uses ROI. Both are very good books in their own right. And P&P 2022 has videos of which I can't speak about as I have not seen them. I've already written that the narrative in the Meadow book might be more valuable than the data tables, especially for those who do their own research.
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Old 03-01-2023, 10:39 PM   #25
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I agree.
The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.

To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.

If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.

If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.
As a former handicapper, I can certainly appreciate your comments about how you and many others have perceived how much the game has changed from the perspective of typical and even advanced handicapping methodologies. It may in fact create a dilemma for many playing the game these days. I look at this apparent quandary differently from the awareness of this being a parimutuel type game.

Although there have been both obvious and even subtle alterations to the many of the variables associated with our game the one factor that has remained the same is the money involved in filling the betting pools during each race. I believe the disparity between the subjective interpretations of the various handicapping factors and the objective analysis of the betting money flow offers an additional advantage when making selections.

I say this only because I recently completed statistical study of nearly 500 races from the CA circuit. Now I know from many of your past posts that you were concerned with favorites, particularly false favorites. I wanted to do this study because I’m not one who is very interested in betting favorites. However, I was interested because I felt that if the tote analysis could identify false favorites, I could feel more comfortable when betting a higher valued entry that was also of interest.

So, I was only interested in those races where the favorite’s odds were between 9/5 to 3/1 at 3 minutes to post. Of those 500 races about 50% showed lower odds and of no interest. What I discovered from the remaining races was that 57% of those entries illustrating a specifically analyzed value relative to the unique Par value won the race. Of the remaining 43% that lost, 18% of them Placed. Aside from finding this distinct evaluation, I later realized what I had stumbled upon when considering that the average final odds for these winning entries was around 2.3/1. Using a $2 base line Win bet the total bet would be $500. The gross return would be about $940 which produced a net profit of $440.

So, while I was able to isolate a majority of false favorites the true favorites discovered at the odds value range specified could certainly become decent plays.

Regarding your comment about “flawed information” I once again refer to the ever present statement made by someone who has taken the game far beyond ANY author of handicapping the horses:
Quote:
Originally written by Bill Benter
The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences affecting a horse's performance. In my experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.
.
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Old 03-01-2023, 11:49 PM   #26
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As a former handicapper, I can certainly appreciate your comments about how you and many others have perceived how much the game has changed from the perspective of typical and even advanced handicapping methodologies. It may in fact create a dilemma for many playing the game these days. I look at this apparent quandary differently from the awareness of this being a parimutuel type game.

Although there have been both obvious and even subtle alterations to the many of the variables associated with our game the one factor that has remained the same is the money involved in filling the betting pools during each race. I believe the disparity between the subjective interpretations of the various handicapping factors and the objective analysis of the betting money flow offers an additional advantage when making selections.

I say this only because I recently completed statistical study of nearly 500 races from the CA circuit. Now I know from many of your past posts that you were concerned with favorites, particularly false favorites. I wanted to do this study because I’m not one who is very interested in betting favorites. However, I was interested because I felt that if the tote analysis could identify false favorites, I could feel more comfortable when betting a higher valued entry that was also of interest.

So, I was only interested in those races where the favorite’s odds were between 9/5 to 3/1 at 3 minutes to post. Of those 500 races about 50% showed lower odds and of no interest. What I discovered from the remaining races was that 57% of those entries illustrating a specifically analyzed value relative to the unique Par value won the race. Of the remaining 43% that lost, 18% of them Placed. Aside from finding this distinct evaluation, I later realized what I had stumbled upon when considering that the average final odds for these winning entries was around 2.3/1. Using a $2 base line Win bet the total bet would be $500. The gross return would be about $940 which produced a net profit of $440.

So, while I was able to isolate a majority of false favorites the true favorites discovered at the odds value range specified could certainly become decent plays.

Regarding your comment about “flawed information” I once again refer to the ever present statement made by someone who has taken the game far beyond ANY author of handicapping the horses:

.
.
I don't think the game has changed at all, in terms of the inner dynamics of pace (not a snapshot of an early quarter) and position on the straights and turns determining winners.
In tomorrow's opener at Gulfstream which should remain on the turf, the focus will be on the #'s 3-4-5-6. Asking myself, "If the horse wins, what are the most likely reasons, what would her trip likely resemble?", & similarly "if she loses, what will be the likely difficulties encountered"? may consist in some fuzzy logic imprecision, but also addresses this race, this horse, this one-time scenario. If one reads that critical commenter on Amazon regarding the book, citing Barry's frequent use of "might, maybe", regarding data mining, then I am allowed to do the same when speculating on today's trip. "Will #3 Egoz Unit challenge #5 Light and Path for the lead? Will one of them clear? Will they likely contest the pace before the far turn? #6 Always Royal had her best fig (brisnet) last out, and her best beaten lengths effort two races ago. Was that because she saved much ground to the stretch in both? And it was at a mile, a faster pace in context of today's 8.5f. Did that assist her mild rally on 12/22? Did #4 Love Mami Love benefit from the outside on the straightaways, and undergo a subtly slower rail trip today? #1 Mystic Sunrise finally draws a rail trip on the turns. Can she stalk, being only 8-1 vs. the favorite last out?" And then like successful players, weighing the values presented.

It's my conviction that Benter benefitted most from the reportedly unsophisticated competition and huge units and pools. I speculate that he would have done as well manually in terms of ROI were he experienced, though of course lacking the volume of plays. But he spawned a subculture of protégés.
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Old 03-02-2023, 12:05 AM   #27
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I didn't miss your point but you sure missed mine. Veteran membership here know that you are the self-appointed guru of handicapping. From your posts there has been no evidence that you are but I digress. If you learned nothing from Meadow's book then you have shut off your mind to anything beyond what you already know. Fine by me; your pool money is as good as anyone else's.
You are still pissed from over 10 years ago when I said that the Handifast software was non profitable and even though free would cost you money if you bet its picks. You should learn to let go.

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For the rest of us who aren't "gurus", the book is a worthwhile read. It's realistic and doesn't propose that there are any magic factors that will lead to riches. As others have posted the data tables are a bit out of date, and if anything, the ROI numbers are probably slightly lower than when the book was published. To me the value of Skeptical Handicapping is Meadow's narrative. Light scoffs at the fact that there are more questions than answers in the book, but most handicappers need to be aware of all the questions. Clearly I am not as gifted as Mr Guru so there were some questions that gave me a better insight into certain handicapping categories. Why not learn from someone who played professionally?
I am not a Guru of anything, I am the student not the teacher.

But I can recognize someone who basically is rehashing everything we all know about handicapping and repackaging it as if it was something innovative.

As far as my qualifications, I finished 10th (after day 1) in the NHC maybe 10 years or so ago. Only now am I getting interested in returning. So maybe I know a little bit about handicapping and am not a total schmuck and can tell a good book about handicapping from a bad one.

Here's a big reason why this book is (pardon my French)...stupid. Meadows says his Father told him "question everything". And Meadows goes on to do just that in his book, hence the name of the book "Skeptical". I followed that philosophy a bit in my youth. The problem is when EVERYTHING is a question mark, reality dissipates and you either have no foundation or a weak one.

If you want to learn something new, which I have yet to learn from Meadows books, do the opposite of what Meadows says. Stop questioning. As any "Guru" would tell you: Wisdom comes from silence.

If you give carte blanche to your mind to question, there is no solution, just endless questions. That's why I say the book is stupid because it promotes endless internal dialogue that only ends up confusing the handicapper more in the end.

When you look at a problem, your consciousness must be fresh and clear, not muddled with endless questions. Because what that does it makes you argue with yourself and a house divided against itself cannot stand.

Stick to a strategy you know works. Meadows has absolutely no strategy he puts forth. He's all over the place with his endless analysis and questioning.

If you disagree with my assessment of the book and you got something from it, more power to you.

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Old 03-02-2023, 12:42 AM   #28
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You are still pissed from over 10 years ago when I said that the Handifast software was non profitable and even though free would cost you money if you bet its picks. You should learn to let go.
Small-minded, immature and petty post...You've not progressed in 10 years...
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Old 03-02-2023, 01:00 AM   #29
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Small-minded, immature and petty post...You've not progressed in 10 years...
He doesn't like me.
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Old 03-02-2023, 08:17 AM   #30
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i'm just a basic strategy ploppy but at less than $4 a copy on amazon, blackjack autumn has to be the biggest overlay at "barry meadows."

the chapters where he goes to the station house casino in tonopah are my favorite in any gambling book!
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