Intro

[Bogo]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

My advice, go through some old programs if you have some and take your finalized tm numbers and average them with the tm class rating. So if you have a horse with a 93 your speed rating but it was a 85 class rating, you will have a final number of 89. While a horse with a 93 your speed rating and a 93 class rating will be a 93. I think you will find the numbers to be a lot more accurate. After you have done so, let me know what you determine, I am curious myself about the conclusion you reach. If you don't have any old programs than obviously you will have to start fresh.

Stick with win betting. If you like, you can use exactas as a protection bet. Simply playing the top 3 favorites on top of your horse will give you the winning exacta about 70% of the time your horse runs 2nd with no handicapping whatsoever. If you want to play your horse on top of the same 3 for about half as much you could. So a play may look something like this. $30 to win #6, $6 exacta 1-2-7 over 6 $3 exacta 6 over 1-2-7. By playing the top 3 favorites you are usually catching the live horses that unfortunately will beat you way too often. Down the road when you feel that your are really good at the game, you can try other approaches. I realize you may not always know who the top 3 favorites will be.

You are wise to stay away from tris. High takeouts and of course you are forever being beat by inferior horses who get much better trips. Also whenever one or more of your horses breaks you are in deep ****. in the trifecta. If you want to use trifecta as a protection bet(with 20 cent minimus at some tracks it is not expensive. You can do something like this 1-2-7 with all with 6 and then 1-2-7/1-2-7 plus other horses that look strong to you /6. Once again should your horse come 3rd at least you will hit the tri about 70% of the time.

By the way not sure if you are there yet, but at some point you have to explore the 20 cent(low takeout) pick 5 at Woodbine/Mohawk. The value is so good so often and with a 20 cent denomination you can play for affordable amounts. If you aren't comfortable with that idea, ignore the suggestion. Much better you stay within your comfort zone.

I keep all my programs so I have plenty to look over. I will put in the class and see if that improves the number. Thank you for that suggestion and that exacta strategy looks very interesting. I will test that out for sure.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Bogo

Okay. So that is an average,correct? If I look at 5 racing lines the horse should be at least cumulative +5 to qualify as a leaver?

Roughly speaking yes, but it's best if you setup your own limits on how many and which lines to use. My approach has the computer first marking each ppline as "Goodline" "Breakline", "Too old", "Qual" ...etc.
so the average ground gain/loss is taken for "Goodlines" only.

Here's a test which may make me look foolish but let's see if Tetrick gets #6 Rosy Outlook to the half in a slow pace. If so the rail horse with the best TM speed and class numbers might not be able to catch him.
Dover Race #2 . tonight Jan 31

#1	-2.18	Closer
		
#2	-2.38	Closer
		
#3	-2.00	Closer
		
#4	-1.49	Closer
		
#5	-1.60	Closer
		
#6	+1.20	Leaver
		
#7	-2.60	Closer
		
#8	+1.00	Stalker

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

Roughly speaking yes, but it's best if you setup your own limits on how many and which lines to use. My approach has the computer first marking each ppline as "Goodline" "Breakline", "Too old", "Qual" ...etc.
so the average ground gain/loss is taken for "Goodlines" only.

Here's a test which may make me look foolish but let's see if Tetrick gets #6 Rosy Outlook to the half in a slow pace. If so the rail horse with the best TM speed and class numbers might not be able to catch him.
Dover Race #2 . tonight Jan 31

#1	-2.18	Closer
		
#2	-2.38	Closer
		
#3	-2.00	Closer
		
#4	-1.49	Closer
		
#5	-1.60	Closer
		
#6	+1.20	Leaver
		
#7	-2.60	Closer
		
#8	+1.00	Stalker

In this scenario, not only does the six have no other potential leaver inside of him but the other horse with early zip, the 8, draws a tough post. Of course, the problem with these mathematical projections, the drivers often have their own ideas. Race shapes are difficult to figure.

If you are trying to figure out who's leaving, at some tracks, certain drivers almost always leave. At Northfield, for instance, Aaron Merriman is highly likely to be on or near the lead in almost every race.

[Ray2000]

Very true, driver aggression has to be considered.

Especially if the driver's name is Yannick

Also, drivers read programs. If they see no obvious leavers then they all shoot out of there.

[Ray2000]

True prediction...Rosy Outlook wire to wire . 27-1 . 28-3 . 28-3 . 29-

But the crowd saw what the computer saw and sent him off at 3/5 . unbelievable slam in the tote odds.

[Bogo]

Great example there. I can see how that would really become an important factor. When the computer marks the lines for you what amount of time is considered too old?

[Ray2000]

I have it set for 35 days or 4 pplines for pacers, 6 pplines for trotters.

[Bogo]

As far as using final times instead of the TM ratings do you adjust with some daily variant first or just use fast track times as they are before adjusting for other things?

[Ray2000]

I take the listed Final time in seconds and adjust by
subtract 0.6 for each wide mark "°" in the line
subtract DTV/10
subtract Starting Post/5 (1st trailer is post 1.5, 2nd trailer 2.5)
add 5xDriver UDR*
add the Track Speed Rating.

I use this adjusted final time
added to an adjusted 4thQ time
to calculate a final speed rating for each ppline.


*adding seconds for Driver ability is arguable.
I use it as a normalizing method, meaning the horses' time wouldn't have been so fast with a poorer driver.