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05-28-2016, 02:09 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
So here’s a good example of why I prefer vertical betting (EX-TRI-SUPER-HI-5) over horizontal.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=131245
Figure out the total number of individual Pick-4 bets and multiply that by say $2.00 for each one.
Yes the Pick-4 paid a nice price, but I’m not sure how much deeper you would have had to go to actually hit it? Besides I think it’s a lot more distressing hitting every race in a Pick-whatever bet and then losing the last race. I don’t need that kind of suspense, but I guess to each-his-own.
I didn’t post the first race in the sequence (Bel R#6) because I didn’t like the race.
So I posted the next three (7, 8, & 9). Only a huge long shot (70/1) that ran 2nd in the 9th prevented me from potentially hitting every vertical in every race. Fortunately I know my limitations and it’s rare for me to hit 3 Supers in 3 sequential races on the same card. So I backed off a bit in the 9th, and just played some exacta combinations.
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The handicapping mindset required for betting horizontals is different then the one required for betting verticals. I much prefer horizontals simply because I want to handicap a race with an eye for which horses can win and not concern myself about some no-hoper who could possibly get up for 3rd or 4th. I am not suggesting that one bet is better than the other but based on handicapping methods/philosophy one bet may suit a person better than the other.
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05-28-2016, 02:42 PM
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#47
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Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
The handicapping mindset required for betting horizontals is different then the one required for betting verticals. I much prefer horizontals simply because I want to handicap a race with an eye for which horses can win and not concern myself about some no-hoper who could possibly get up for 3rd or 4th. I am not suggesting that one bet is better than the other but based on handicapping methods/philosophy one bet may suit a person better than the other.
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Totally agree, different mindsets, hard to combine both, struggling to see the whole card, requires more prerace handicapping, mind bogging to play verticals and horizontals together, recipe for bad play, chasing too many combinations, too many races, unsustainable mentally, no time to enjoy the
Sport....becomes too much about gambling and churn...
Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 05-28-2016 at 02:43 PM.
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05-28-2016, 04:31 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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I understand the mind set for one or the other. But for me, it's about catching the odds and leveraging the adavantage.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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05-28-2016, 05:59 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
So if I have one horse that's great and two favorites I don't like in the sequence, there's no way to make that work? Why am I only allowed to bet one horse a race? It's just as effective to beat bad favorites in these bets as it is to key some great longshot---in which case you want to bet that horse to win too anyway. There are so many creative ways to play Pick 3, 4, 5, and 6 bets that you're looking at it in a way too limited way.
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I didn't say there is no way and I didn't say I never bet more than one horse in a race. I'm just very selective. I rarley invest money in maiden races or in races for horses which never have won 2 races. Or in a horse that has a record like 20 starts and 2 wins. I don't say others are wrong, it's just my way to play the game.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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05-28-2016, 06:04 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
The handicapping mindset required for betting horizontals is different then the one required for betting verticals. I much prefer horizontals simply because I want to handicap a race with an eye for which horses can win and not concern myself about some no-hoper who could possibly get up for 3rd or 4th. I am not suggesting that one bet is better than the other but based on handicapping methods/philosophy one bet may suit a person better than the other.
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Actually I think it depends on peoples personalities and characters which way to bet they prefer. A straight person may prefer straight wagers and so on...An interesting topic.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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05-28-2016, 10:01 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Home
Posts: 342
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fiznow
A straight person may prefer straight wagers and so on...An interesting topic.
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What about a gay person? The Rainbow Pick 6? .......j/k
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05-29-2016, 09:37 AM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fox
What about a gay person? The Rainbow Pick 6? .......j/k
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Well I didn't mean sexual preferences. Your answer is funny though.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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05-29-2016, 03:40 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 64
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This discussion is why I love this game. We all have our own strengths and perspectives and we play to them. As far as body language goes, there have been many times when an 18-1 on paper looked like a champ in the parade and it's the 3rd leg of a pick-4. This could be an opportunity mitigate a loss or turn a profit. It's up to you!
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05-29-2016, 07:23 PM
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#54
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,998
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Anybody that does not see the value in pick 4's only need to look at yesterdays late pick 4 at Santa Anita(a 50 cent parlay was $2475 and the 50 cent pick 4 paid $16,295). Here is another way of looking at it. When dealing with a 15.3% win takeout(I believe that is what southern California uses) your payoff on average in the win pool is .847. You need to get an increase of roughly 18% to get you to break even. A 4 horse parlay with a 18% premium would be 1.18*1.18*1.18*1.18 or about 1.94%. So if you can get 94% above a parlay in a pick 4 pool you have essentially nullified the takeout. When playing pick 4's with full fields(35+ runners), it is not unusual to get double the parlay and thus nullifying the takeout. I ignored breakage, but the bottom line is that a lot of the obstacles of high takeout imo can best be overcome with strategic play of pick 4s & pick 5's. I would imagine you can make similar arguments for superfectas, however, I also find picking winners in 4 consecutive races a more desirable task than picking the first 4 finishers in a single race
That being said pick 4's/5's have their own set of challenges. How to formulate tickets, bankroll management, long losing streaks, variance, extreme frustration.....so they are not for everyone.
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06-02-2016, 05:32 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
can someone please explain the logic of betting vertical exotics such as the pick 3 or pick 4. i can understand the pick six, as hitting that is a life changer and is like winning the lottery.
all the readings of intelligent writers who have studied the gambling side of racing, come across as saying, if you don't have a positive expectancy with the win bets you make, you will not have a positive expectancy with any other type of wager you make.
am i missing something, because with the low payoffs in the win spot after take out AND DIME BREAKAGE there is no way i come out ahead, whereas with my long shot plays, betting into large fields i have much more success.
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The most successful handicappers I know play horizontals as a group and have a complex layering method. They make serious money.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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06-02-2016, 07:15 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Anybody that does not see the value in pick 4's only need to look at yesterdays late pick 4 at Santa Anita(a 50 cent parlay was $2475 and the 50 cent pick 4 paid $16,295). Here is another way of looking at it. When dealing with a 15.3% win takeout(I believe that is what southern California uses) your payoff on average in the win pool is .847. You need to get an increase of roughly 18% to get you to break even. A 4 horse parlay with a 18% premium would be 1.18*1.18*1.18*1.18 or about 1.94%. So if you can get 94% above a parlay in a pick 4 pool you have essentially nullified the takeout. When playing pick 4's with full fields(35+ runners), it is not unusual to get double the parlay and thus nullifying the takeout. I ignored breakage, but the bottom line is that a lot of the obstacles of high takeout imo can best be overcome with strategic play of pick 4s & pick 5's. I would imagine you can make similar arguments for superfectas, however, I also find picking winners in 4 consecutive races a more desirable task than picking the first 4 finishers in a single race.........
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While it is true that a P-4 can exceed double a parlay it is also true that 23.68% is the take for CA tracks. While you might get some great payoffs you are more apt to get poor payoffs, that's simple math. Ignoring that fact by comparing payoffs to the useless metric of a 4 horse parlay doesn't make the bet a great bet.
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06-03-2016, 05:55 PM
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#57
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I'm going to take a guess that you're not going to get 200 - 1 odds covering 50 - 90% in different legs.
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Incorrect.
I regularly receive 200/1-400/1 odds and do cover quite a bit of legs. The trick is to know when to POUND a Pick 5 10X, 5X, 3X AND with which legs to lean on.
ABC's are nice but weighing out which races are lockdown's vs. which are chaos events is essential with these wagers.
Knowing which A's are VALUE A's VS. which A's are "get more coverage elsewhere" A's is also essential.
I can go on and on, how you can target a 200/1 return AND get excellent coverage but it's time for a nap before Emerald's Friday night card.
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06-03-2016, 07:17 PM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pondman
The most successful handicappers I know play horizontals as a group and have a complex layering method. They make serious money.
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i agree if you are in a group of horseplayers that collect alot of money to cover a reasonable amount of combinations. however a person like me that only knows one other serious player and i am limited to small amounts of thrill money, i am at a severe disadantage. i dare say most horseplayers are in the same boat i am and not associated with a large circle of bettors.
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06-03-2016, 07:38 PM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
i agree if you are in a group of horseplayers that collect alot of money to cover a reasonable amount of combinations. however a person like me that only knows one other serious player and i am limited to small amounts of thrill money, i am at a severe disadantage. i dare say most horseplayers are in the same boat i am and not associated with a large circle of bettors.
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So the only thing in your way from being a successful bettor is a lack of bankroll? Betting big or betting more combinations won't do squat for your success UNLESS you are betting the right horses. If you possess the skills and know-how of a successful bettor, people would be lining up to pool their money with you.
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06-03-2016, 08:13 PM
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#60
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by acorn54
i agree if you are in a group of horseplayers that collect alot of money to cover a reasonable amount of combinations. however a person like me that only knows one other serious player and i am limited to small amounts of thrill money, i am at a severe disadantage. i dare say most horseplayers are in the same boat i am and not associated with a large circle of bettors.
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For horizontal bets you don't need more or less combinations than for vertical bets imo.
__________________
"A difference of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." Will Rogers
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