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Old 05-14-2022, 01:26 PM   #31
dballard125
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I will key Epicenter and Early Voting in the Preakness.
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Old 05-14-2022, 04:35 PM   #32
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One can only hope Early Voting turns out to be more useful than Cloud Computing.

For now, I'm leaning towards Epicenter as the likeliest winner, low odds or not.
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Old 05-14-2022, 06:32 PM   #33
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Epicenter and Secret Oath gonna be conned into making early bids for fear of Early Voting getting away, leaving it ripe for a patient John Velasquez to bring Simplification in for the kill in the final furlong.

McPeek should have left Smile Happy in.
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Old 05-14-2022, 07:09 PM   #34
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To me, Creative Minister is going to be the overlooked horse that will creep up in price.

Yes, I know, new shooters don't have a great record in the Preakness of recent, and outside of fillies like Swiss Skydiver and Rachel Alexandra, you have Cloud Computing in 2017, Bernardini in 2006, and Red Bullet in 2000. All of those horses were very competitive in G1 races prior to their Preakness wins. The fillies obviously very accomplished winners prior.

In the undercard of the Kentucky Derby (R4), he won a solid Allowance race after jumping at the start and reeling together 8 and 1/2 12s furlongs to finish in a time of 1:42.37. Any horse that just throws 12s at you has my attention.

His first start was in March and at 7F; so he is obviously greener than green. He has 10,000 things going against him notwithstanding the massive class jump. Could be a really interesting horse at 15/1 or more.
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Old 05-14-2022, 08:35 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Epicenter and Secret Oath gonna be conned into making early bids for fear of Early Voting getting away, leaving it ripe for a patient John Velasquez to bring Simplification in for the kill in the final furlong.

McPeek should have left Smile Happy in.
Epicenter will sit right off of Early Voting and wait until midway around the turn before moving on him. Simplification should be sitting 3rd or 4th, a couple of lengths off of Epicenter and make his move when they hit the far turn. Then it is just a question of how they finish, which should be Epicenter then Simplification and then Early Voting. Who knows who is going to round out the super.
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Old 05-14-2022, 08:47 PM   #36
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Epicenter will sit right off of Early Voting and wait until midway around the turn before moving on him. Simplification should be sitting 3rd or 4th, a couple of lengths off of Epicenter and make his move when they hit the far turn. Then it is just a question of how they finish, which should be Epicenter then Simplification and then Early Voting. Who knows who is going to round out the super.
You don't think Secret Oath will have an impact on the race, particularly the far turn?
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Old 05-15-2022, 08:04 AM   #37
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Angry Preakness

This years Preakness is looking like a joke. We got two Allowance horse running. Horses jumping in and out, and one Clear cut runner from the Derby. Boy, Rich Strike really shook up the apple cart, didnít he? I canít even begin to analyze these guys using Carisí system. I still donít have a clear picture of whoís really running. Anyone want to calm me down, here? I might just pass this race and move on to the Belmont.
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Old 05-15-2022, 08:18 AM   #38
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They get free parking and admission if they have an entry in that day
You mean they can come in thru the front entrance? Avoid the back? Well worth itÖÖ.
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Old 05-15-2022, 09:32 AM   #39
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You don't think Secret Oath will have an impact on the race, particularly the far turn?
NO!!! The Arkansas Derby was the worst prep race of the six and she flattened out after her big move. She lost ground in the stretch to Cyberknife and let Barber Road pass her. That's not good! The early fractions were honest and they came home slow. Plus, she wasn't running straight in either the Arkansas or Kentucky Oaks in the stretch. She will be way over bet, hopefully second choice.

Epicenter and Simplification both have speed and can go to the front but it certainly appears that both are better stalking the leader. I see Early Voting getting the lead and setting decent fractions but nothing to crazy, just like in the Wood. If this occurs with Epicenter and Simplification right behind him Secret Oath isn't passing any of them.
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Old 05-15-2022, 10:33 AM   #40
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NO!!! The Arkansas Derby was the worst prep race of the six and she flattened out after her big move. She lost ground in the stretch to Cyberknife and let Barber Road pass her. That's not good! The early fractions were honest and they came home slow. Plus, she wasn't running straight in either the Arkansas or Kentucky Oaks in the stretch. She will be way over bet, hopefully second choice.
Perhaps her Arkansas Derby effort is enough proof that she can't win the Preakness, but that doesn't mean that she will be a non-factor in the race.

The filly has a powerful turn of foot, she's able to uncork it on the turn, and she's willing to make the move from either the outside or the inside. That was the point of my fanciful prediction. Some said that Epicenter may have moved a bit too soon in the Kentucky Derby and if a tall, imposing, and over-hyped filly makes an eye-catching move before the quarter pole, Rosario might be goaded into going "all in" earlier than he wants, leaving him vulnerable late (just like he was at Churchill).

Even if Secret Oath is no threat, I don't think Epicenter is going to be able to simply stalk Early Voting and dispatch with him as he pleases. He's really the only other colt with good early speed; he can't allow Early Voting to have a clear and uncontested lead.
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Old 05-15-2022, 10:52 AM   #41
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Based on my early data, I have Epicenter, Secret Oath and
Simplification. The others donít qualify on Carisí Preakness indicator. However, 6 of the 11 are RAN horses.

Armagnac
Early Voting
RATTLE N Roll
Secret Oath
Shake em Loose
Skippylongstocking

None of the entries, as far as I have found, have the Conduit mare tail line. I could be wrong. My eyesight stinks, lately. Itís tough reading those small lines.
If Indicator #1 is correct, you can toss Armagnac and Creative Minister. However, We saw what happened with Rich Strike. If thatís the case, you use Armagnac in your exotics. You can box all six and see what happens. Or, take the top two, early voting and Epicenter and wheel them with the field. Here is now interesting note from the Derby. Simplification came roaring down the stretch and scored a final 1/4 mile in 25.05. I Don the know what his last 3/8ths were, but looking at his trackus stats, it must have been fast. I donít know how this would factor in with the 1 3/16, but itís something to consider. Of course, Iíll welcome any comments that beg to differ. After all, what the hell do I know? 😆😆😆😆.
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Old 05-15-2022, 12:18 PM   #42
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Perhaps her Arkansas Derby effort is enough proof that she can't win the Preakness, but that doesn't mean that she will be a non-factor in the race.

The filly has a powerful turn of foot, she's able to uncork it on the turn, and she's willing to make the move from either the outside or the inside. That was the point of my fanciful prediction. Some said that Epicenter may have moved a bit too soon in the Kentucky Derby and if a tall, imposing, and over-hyped filly makes an eye-catching move before the quarter pole, Rosario might be goaded into going "all in" earlier than he wants, leaving him vulnerable late (just like he was at Churchill).

Even if Secret Oath is no threat, I don't think Epicenter is going to be able to simply stalk Early Voting and dispatch with him as he pleases. He's really the only other colt with good early speed; he can't allow Early Voting to have a clear and uncontested lead.
Epicenter sat right off of Zozos and Pioneer of Medina in the Louisiana Derby and went by them when asked, same stalking trip this time. Same result! Sure he can let Early Voting have a clear and uncontested lead. He had that in the Wood and got run down by Mo Donegal, who isn't as good as Epicenter.

Secret Oath will make a big run on the turn and go by the "bad" horses but when it comes time to run past the three left to beat she will flatten out once again. She may very well run fourth, the rest of the field is terrible or not very good.
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Old 05-15-2022, 01:15 PM   #43
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The Mig just interviewed Chad Brown on America's Day at the Races.

He is pretty excited about Early Voting in the Preakness. Said he is a big colt that they had to really work to get him fit and feels he is now ready.
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Old 05-15-2022, 01:36 PM   #44
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Epicenter sat right off of Zozos and Pioneer of Medina in the Louisiana Derby and went by them when asked, same stalking trip this time.
That was a contested pace and neither pace horse was as accomplished as Early Voting.

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Sure he can let Early Voting have a clear and uncontested lead. He had that in the Wood and got run down by Mo Donegal, who isn't as good as Epicenter.
Early Voting had pressure down the backstretch in the Wood. Mo Donegal needed every bit of ground to reel him in.

I forgot about Armagnac being foolishly wheeled into the race (I guess his form holds v. Happy Jack), who has at best a modicum of speed. I suppose if his connections send him on another suicide mission as they did in the San Felipe (where he still couldn't get within 3 lengths of the speedy Forbidden Kingdom) he can pressure Early Voting for about a 1/4 mile.

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Secret Oath will make a big run on the turn and go by the "bad" horses but when it comes time to run past the three left to beat she will flatten out once again. She may very well run fourth, the rest of the field is terrible or not very good.
She doesn't need to run past any of the principal contenders, but she may force their hand earlier than their riders want.
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Old 05-15-2022, 02:18 PM   #45
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The Mig just interviewed Chad Brown on America's Day at the Races.

He is pretty excited about Early Voting in the Preakness. Said he is a big colt that they had to really work to get him fit and feels he is now ready.
He'll probably be a fair price in the Preakness.

May have run bigger than Mo Donegal in the Wood. Him not winning the Wood, and Epicenter's solid Derby, and Secret Oath's satisfying Oaks win may help the price some.

If Rich Strike was in the Preakness, Early Voting may have been an auto-bet, on value alone.
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