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Old 05-11-2022, 05:40 PM   #16
zico20
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Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned View Post
Love it!!! She will be an easy toss at a shorter price. She fell apart in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, no way will she be in the trifecta.
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Old 05-12-2022, 01:17 PM   #17
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Rich Strike is 80-1 to go to The Preakness......I spoke with him today.

He and his connections simply will not do a 2 week turnaround.

Rich Strike is gunning for a huge Belmont party.
You were right. WOW



https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...ass-preakness/
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Old 05-12-2022, 02:10 PM   #18
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He was never going to win so this hurts Epicenter's odds plus it lowers the exacta and trifecta payoffs because he wasn't going to run second or third. Not a good day for those of us who were tossing him.
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Old 05-12-2022, 02:21 PM   #19
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That sucks, he would have pulled some money from the unschooled horse players. I usually just watch the derby and try to profit from what I saw in the Preakness and Belmont.
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Old 05-12-2022, 03:03 PM   #20
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He was never going to win so this hurts Epicenter's odds plus it lowers the exacta and trifecta payoffs because he wasn't going to run second or third. Not a good day for those of us who were tossing him.
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That sucks, he would have pulled some money from the unschooled horse players. I usually just watch the derby and try to profit from what I saw in the Preakness and Belmont.
Epicenter is/was going to be favored.

Rich Strike and Secret Oath were going to battle it out for 2nd choice with Early Voting 4th choice. Maybe Simplification fits in there somewhere as well.

Interesting to see how this field rounds out with Epi/SO/EV already in.
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Old 05-12-2022, 04:15 PM   #21
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Can someone explain to me why they are considering running Happy Jack? He was dead last in the Derby down the backstretch and only passed horses that turned to a crawl. If Zandon doesn't run I suppose he could run up for fourth with a move forward. Maybe!
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Old 05-12-2022, 05:38 PM   #22
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They get free parking and admission if they have an entry in that day
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Old 05-13-2022, 10:42 AM   #23
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Can someone explain to me why they are considering running Happy Jack? He was dead last in the Derby down the backstretch and only passed horses that turned to a crawl. If Zandon doesn't run I suppose he could run up for fourth with a move forward. Maybe!
Calumet Farm trying to win the Triple Crown as a breeder with horses eligible for a first condition allowance race...
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Old 05-13-2022, 05:35 PM   #24
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Zandon is out of the Preakness, in fact, he is out of the Belmont also, says his owner. That leaves seven confirmed starters and three maybe's. Epicenter will go off 4\5.
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Old 05-14-2022, 01:04 AM   #25
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Thoughts on boxing Epicenter with ALL in an exacta like I wish I would've done in the Derby?
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Old 05-14-2022, 04:27 AM   #26
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Thoughts on boxing Epicenter with ALL in an exacta like I wish I would've done in the Derby?
Day late and a dollar short. Probably need to toss epicenter to find any substantial payouts.
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Old 05-14-2022, 09:35 AM   #27
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Zandon is out of the Preakness, in fact, he is out of the Belmont also, says his owner. That leaves seven confirmed starters and three maybe's. Epicenter will go off 4\5.
Can't see him being that low.

The filly Secret Oath is going to take some money. She was 7/5 against the boys in the Arkansas Derby, and won the Oaks impressively.

Thinking 9/5 to 2/1ish or so.
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Old 05-14-2022, 10:40 AM   #28
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Are you confident in Epicenterís enduring form two weeks after running hard in the Derby?
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Old 05-14-2022, 11:21 AM   #29
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Are you confident in Epicenter’s enduring form two weeks after running hard in the Derby?
Most of the data I’ve seen suggests sharp horses coming back quickly have a statistical advantage. Most likely, since they are coming back quickly that means they came out of the race without any issues and their form is less likely to have changed much.

I think the bigger risk is a series of tough races with a lot of shipping without a freshening. Then horses tend to wear down eventually and may go off form at the very time you may want a peak for the Breeder’s Cup races.
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Old 05-14-2022, 01:01 PM   #30
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Most of the data I’ve seen suggests sharp horses coming back quickly have a statistical advantage. Most likely, since they are coming back quickly that means they came out of the race without any issues and their form is less likely to have changed much.

I think the bigger risk is a series of tough races with a lot of shipping without a freshening. Then horses tend to wear down eventually and may go off form at the very time you may want a peak for the Breeder’s Cup races.
Yea. And they aren't going to run in the Preakness if he's not all-systems-go. He's too valuable and legitimate to rush into a race.

Closest to the pace of the contenders, first run, held well, held off a legitimate horse for place, looked good doing it, ran the biggest TFUS of the Kentucky Derby...

I have more confidence that Epicenter is a 'complete' racehorse that can answer different challenges now, then I did before the Derby.

Early Voting can try to pull off a big wire-to-wire effort, but Epicenter looks like he'll run 'his' race regardless.

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Can someone explain to me why they are considering running Happy Jack? He was dead last in the Derby down the backstretch and only passed horses that turned to a crawl. If Zandon doesn't run I suppose he could run up for fourth with a move forward. Maybe!
Happy Jack can do. Can do... the horse can do...

He can run. He has never run well in a race yet.

I think he won on debut, and his MSW win was a total DREAM trip. Did very little running and the race came to him. In the Cali stakes he did very little running. There were times that they really hard-urged him from the gate, to no avail. He also wasn't changing leads. I guess a 5th and two 3rds in short fields earned him more Derby points than he deserved.

I'll check for any recent works, but his two works prior to the Derby were much improved. He changed leads and looked better. His 1m work at Keeneland looked better than anything he'd shown in races.

I used him on some Kentucky Derby tickets. Was very fractious in the gate and didn't break. The gate was a stressful thing, but the race and experience probably helped along any improvement that was in him. He basically 'saved ground' (again) once he had the gate trouble and lack of a break, and was behind a wall of horses and not abused. He was a stride or two slow on the lead change but did change and looked OK trotting home.

I think he'll beat Simplification in the Preakness, and he'll probably be one of the longest shots. Very unlikely to win, but other than Epicenter, Secret Oath, and Early Voting, there isn't much pizza left.

not sure if you wanted a serious response but take it fwiw
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