Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-21-2022, 09:27 AM   #61
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Can you please interpret the above?
Assume I'm stupid and really lay it out plainly.
Thanks in advance.
suppose you developed a system for betting favorites. in 1000 races your system selected 300 races to play the favorite which won 50% of the races with a %5 profit (that's a $1 dollar return of $1.05).
Now if in those 1000 races all favorites won but 33% of the races and returned only $0.84 on the dollar you would have outperformed the public by $1.05/ $0.84 = 125%, which may be significant when measured by a statical analysis.
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2022, 09:42 AM   #62
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
574 race recap
a flat bet on all favorites returned $.089. winning 40% of the time
using my bet sizes for 171 bets on my selected favorites returned $1.05, these plays returned a flat bet of $1.00 on the dollar, winning 51% of the time. no outliers
Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on your sentence structure, but are you saying this:

Flat-betting all post-time favorites (as determined after the race, I suspect) had a 40% win rate returning 8.9 cents? On a (nominal) dollar bet size?

Your method, betting fewer races, had a 51% hot rate with a 5% profit?
elhelmete is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2022, 11:03 AM   #63
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post
Sorry if it seems like I'm picking on your sentence structure, but are you saying this:

Flat-betting all post-time favorites (as determined after the race, I suspect) had a 40% win rate returning 8.9 cents? On a (nominal) dollar bet size?

Your method, betting fewer races, had a 51% hot rate with a 5% profit?
correct. except the public fav returned $0.89 on the dollar
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 04-21-2022 at 11:09 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-21-2022, 05:06 PM   #64
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
broke down results by track
I looked at 14 tracks
my play outperformed the public in 10 tracks
loss to the public in 4 tracks
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 04-21-2022 at 05:07 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-27-2022, 09:05 AM   #65
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
an observation.
Nothing like data!!
I notice that there is a "significant" $1 return when using one additional factor in my calculation:


a higher factor returned the following: 88 plays $1 fb return was $1.06. my bet size had a $1 return of $1.17.
a play on all favorites returned $0.86 on the dollar

a lower factor returned the following: 83 plays $1 fb return was $0.93. my bet size had a $1 return of $0.95
a play on all favorites returned $0.86 on the dollar
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-10-2022, 11:23 PM   #66
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
IF I GOT THIS RIGHT, ALL LOOKS GOOD
IN ALL 682 RACES, FAV WON 40% (THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $0.87)
IN 72 SYSTEM PLAY RACES, FAVORITE WON 68%(THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $1.10)
USING SOMEWHAT THE STATICAL REFERENCES FROM FABRICAND’S BOOK “HORSE SENSE”
THE MEAN = 40% X 72 = 30
SQRT(72 X .68 X .32) =3.96
AT THE 1% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, THE SYSTEM WINS MUST BE >=(3.96 X 2.5) +30 = 40
THE SYSTEM PLAY WINS WERE 72 X .68 = 49.
Playing only 11% of the races back in the day would not be too practical, but today, given proper programing, you could run this system 24/7
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-11-2022, 01:29 PM   #67
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
I have started to document, in detail, the structure of the play and find it to be a major effort. there are countless numbers of inter-related excel cells not including the two-programed exacta matrices boards, w,p,s and excata pools.

but who said winning 68% of the time is easy..
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 05-11-2022 at 01:30 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-19-2022, 12:44 PM   #68
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818

IN ALL 782 RACES, FAV WON 49% (THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $0.94)
IN 135 SYSTEM PLAY RACES, FAVORITE WON 61%(THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $1.31)

THE RESULTS EXCEED THE 1% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE .

I'll post some live plays!!
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-19-2022, 01:06 PM   #69
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Belterra Park Race 2

__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-19-2022, 01:13 PM   #70
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Belterra Park Race 2

A WALK IN THE PARK AT 1/5..
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2022, 07:40 AM   #71
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
FR Vichy* Race 1 PGNO
2.443 <<BET SIZE
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2022, 07:52 AM   #72
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
FR Vichy* Race 1 PGNO
2.443 <<BET SIZE


MUSTAFFIZ $1 returned $2.1 to win
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2022, 12:03 PM   #73
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Pimlico* Race 2 PGNO
2.215 <<BET SIZE
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2022, 12:42 PM   #74
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Pimlico* Race 2 PGNO
2.215 <<BET SIZE
Run Raegan Run returns $2.30 on the dollar
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-20-2022, 06:25 PM   #75
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,818
Pimlico* Race 14 PGNO
4.403 <<BET SIZE
__________________
DON'T LOOK UP


Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2022 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.