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Old 03-09-2022, 04:49 PM   #31
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PA R9

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Old 03-09-2022, 05:57 PM   #32
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7/9 $1 EXACTA PAYOUT AT TRACK WAS $7.40
MY TOTAL EXACTA BET WAS $117.45, RETURNING $267.95

MY WIN BET WAS $46.52, RETURNING $67.78
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Old 03-10-2022, 08:42 AM   #33
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If making the win play and exacta as I have shown, it affords more places to layoff money with minimum impact on the odds.
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Old 03-10-2022, 07:10 PM   #34
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Old 03-10-2022, 07:20 PM   #35
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twp r3

my download had the win pool value at $24000 with the #1 the fav
final win pool was over $40,000 with the #7 the fav and it won
7/1 exacta

given the $40000 pool this would have been a pass race for me.

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Old 03-10-2022, 09:56 PM   #36
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Old 03-11-2022, 10:40 AM   #37
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Proud to announce that there were 3 winning bet and exacta plays in my first 6 live race undertaking
win bet returned $1.48 on the dollar, $1.14 for the exacta bets

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Old 03-11-2022, 11:46 AM   #38
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Just want to confirm that all of this data was taken after the races, when pool sizes were 100% known?
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Old 03-11-2022, 12:26 PM   #39
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Just want to confirm that all of this data was taken after the races, when pool sizes were 100% known?
No, the Live races, in this case the last 6 race tote board data was down loaded as the horses were at the gate.
I use twinspires data. they generally present the data one last time before the race is off.
by the time I post the data to this web site the race is close to its end.
this could be overcome by some good programing, which, at this time iis above my pay grade.
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Old 03-11-2022, 09:42 PM   #40
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CORRECTION


Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Proud to announce that there were 3 winning bet and exacta plays in my first 6 live race undertaking
win bet returned $1.15 on the dollar, $1.14 for the exacta bets
TODAY WENT ONE FOR TWO.

8 RACE TOTAL
$1 WIN BET RETURN = $1.20, EXACTA $1 RETURN $1.00
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Old 03-12-2022, 08:50 AM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
twp r3

my download had the win pool value at $24000 with the #1 the fav
final win pool was over $40,000 with the #7 the fav and it won
7/1 exacta

given the $40000 pool this would have been a pass race for me.

hunh__________??????


per your attached thumbnail in race 9 in Parx on 3/9 you got a 1/2 payout on the #7 horse

but you don't mention betting any other horses

I thought your thing was to dutch horses - are you saying you didn't bet any other horses in that race?

the same goes for Turfway on 3/10 - per your attached thumbnail you got an even money payout on the 6 horse in race 8

looks like from the thumbnail you bet only on that horse to win

so this is now your thing?_________no more dutching_______just betting a strong favorite to win if the pools indicate such a play is wise___________??????

and if this is the case what do you want to see in the pools to make a bet like this - a greater % in the place and show pools than in the win pools____?

the language that you use is "top win"______what does "top win" mean

and why do you use language such as this which is obviously unclear_______?


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Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-12-2022 at 08:52 AM.
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Old 03-12-2022, 09:15 AM   #42
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As for the win bet, I analyze three horses in each race
the favorite (top, public's #1 choice)
the 2nd favorite (Public's 2nd choice )
and the 3rd favorite (public's 3rd choice)
if there is a play on the top choice there are no plays on the 2nd or 3rd choice.
if there is no play on the top choice, there MAYBE a play on both the 2nd and third choice. At this time I not certain betting BOTH 2nd AND 3rd choice are profitable.
The investigation now centers on the tote board pool sizes as the horses approach the gate.
If and when I post the play to this web site, the horses are probably in the home stretch or the race is finished.
It these plays to continue their success, I would invest in a program that does all the required work that could make timely bets at an ADW before the gate opens, using this same tote board data.

in addition to the win play, I also make an exacta play when ever one of the top three favorites are a play.
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Old 03-12-2022, 02:43 PM   #43
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TODAY, AFTER 6 RACES NO WINNERS
TOP RANK IS 0 FOR 3
2ND AND 3 RANKS 0 FOR3
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Old 03-16-2022, 08:34 AM   #44
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Results after 21 LIVE races

my $1 favorite return was $0.98, 6 winners in 21 races
the public flat bet on 7 favorites of 21 races was only $0.62
I outperformed the public by 0.98/0.62 = 158%
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Last edited by formula_2002; 03-16-2022 at 08:39 AM.
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Old 03-16-2022, 07:14 PM   #45
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HELPS TO WIN TWO IN A ROW

my $1 favorite return was $1.11, 8 winners in 23 races
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