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Old 02-27-2022, 09:27 AM   #1
formula_2002
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BETTING FAVORITES. KNOW WHEN TO HOLD THEM KNOW WHEN TO FOLD THEM AND KNOW HOW TO BET

CHART SHOWING THE RESULTS FOR 22 FULL RACE CARDS, 190 RACES, 17 RACE CARDS WERE POSITIVE.
I'LL ADD ADDITIONAL RACES AS LONG AS THERE IS "HOPE"
IT'S WHAT I DO

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Old 02-27-2022, 10:58 AM   #2
Bustin Stones
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What you are studying has academic value for sure.
However, if at the end of the day, you make 5 $100 bets and make a $10 profit minus whatever pp acquisition costs, that's a pretty sad pot at the end of the rainbow. How much of your day are you willing to spend to earn that $10? It beats losing money, but you've forfeited the time you could have spent doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while.
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Old 02-27-2022, 12:14 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Bustin Stones View Post
What you are studying has academic value for sure.
However, if at the end of the day, you make 5 $100 bets and make a $10 profit minus whatever pp acquisition costs, that's a pretty sad pot at the end of the rainbow. How much of your day are you willing to spend to earn that $10? It beats losing money, but you've forfeited the time you could have spent doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while.
The current $1 play returns $1.35, that is a 35% profit.
what will it be over the next 190 races? who knows.
it takes me a minute or two down download the data, less than 10 seconds to do hundreds of calculations.

If this beast were to be statically profitable, it would be worth developing a program to download, calculate and place the bets at an adw site.

the program could run 24/7 for any track.
however, there are some additional tests which are very labor intensive, and that is, download the data as the first horse enters the gate and a few other conditions. but first things first!! that's a pun

ps one of the key observations to make is to ensure my play outperforms the public's to the extent of profitability
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Old 02-27-2022, 02:31 PM   #4
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I imagine you could apply your hundreds of calculations to every horse in the race and not just the favorite in the same 10 seconds, right?
And this would eliminate you having to concern yourself with the odds as the gate opens. And, I assume that reduces the labor intensive portion of the method.
And if you did this and your top score landed on a 5-1 instead of a 6-5, the 6-5 would yield a better profit? Because other folks' methods are even better than yours?
I'm trying to rationalize how it makes sense to ignore the rest of the field with these calculations? Or why the calculations only work on the favorite?
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Old 02-27-2022, 02:48 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bustin Stones
What you are studying has academic value for sure.
However, if at the end of the day, you make 5 $100 bets and make a $10 profit minus whatever pp acquisition costs, that's a pretty sad pot at the end of the rainbow. How much of your day are you willing to spend to earn that $10? It beats losing money, but you've forfeited the time you could have spent doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while.

Your response is the very essence of The Speed of Money concept.

However, the greater risk lies in the fact that most players confuse "doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while" with being profitable.

Formula is addressing (potential) LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY and Bustin Stones is addressing HAVING A GOOD DAY.

These are two distinctly different concepts.
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Old 02-27-2022, 02:53 PM   #6
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Formula is addressing (potential) LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY and Bustin Stones is addressing HAVING A GOOD DAY.

These are two distinctly different concepts.
This is the essence of the game....

The errors "good day" players make, so the "long-termers" can be profitable.
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Old 02-27-2022, 04:32 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
Your response is the very essence of The Speed of Money concept.

However, the greater risk lies in the fact that most players confuse "doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while" with being profitable.

Formula is addressing (potential) LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY and Bustin Stones is addressing HAVING A GOOD DAY.

These are two distinctly different concepts.
well said
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Old 02-27-2022, 05:19 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Bustin Stones View Post
I imagine you could apply your hundreds of calculations to every horse in the race and not just the favorite in the same 10 seconds, right?
And this would eliminate you having to concern yourself with the odds as the gate opens. And, I assume that reduces the labor intensive portion of the method.
And if you did this and your top score landed on a 5-1 instead of a 6-5, the 6-5 would yield a better profit? Because other folks' methods are even better than yours?
I'm trying to rationalize how it makes sense to ignore the rest of the field with these calculations? Or why the calculations only work on the favorite?
Possibly the more data that comes in the deeper the analysis.

for instance, setting the bet size >=5 and <10 I can generate a positive return on each 2nd and 3rd public choice for a combined $1 return of $1.11
9 wins in 27 plays
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Old 02-28-2022, 06:56 AM   #9
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you (Formula) posted your first thread here on August 26, 2011

that's about 10.5 years ago

IIRC you say you have stated that you do not yet have the full confidence necessary to actually bet

and you will not post your picks before the race for various reasons

you could open a very small account with a racebook and bet only $10 total on your top 2 or 3 selections

after 100 bets if you have not won you probably will have lost very little

you could then post a screenshot of your account history so everyone can see how your methods fare in real time



unless you do this or something like this, I for one, and I would guess many others, cannot have a great deal of confidence in your methodology


this is going to sound sarcastic - but so be it


do you feel you need another 10 years or so to have full confidence to make actual bets?




. Edit - even if your bets would have to be somewhat larger that $10 to get your percentages right it would still be a small amount - and any loss that would occur would still be likely to be very small




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Old 03-01-2022, 11:44 AM   #10
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Possibly the more data that comes in the deeper the analysis.

for instance, setting the bet size >=5 and <10 I can generate a positive return on each 2nd and 3rd public choice for a combined $1 return of $1.11
9 wins in 27 plays

results for HK SHA TIN On 2-26-2022

top ranked results
0 for 2
Bet $32 return 0

second ranked
1-2
bet 17 return 48

3rd ranked
0 for 2
bet 17 return 0


total bet $66
returned 48
$1 return = $0.73
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Old 03-01-2022, 06:09 PM   #11
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will be doing fg today.. as always picked at random.
if some want to mention a track for tomorrow's analysis be my guest. ill do the 1st one received.
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Old 03-01-2022, 08:19 PM   #12
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This is the essence of the game....

The errors "good day" players make, so the "long-termers" can be profitable.
Succinct!
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Old 03-01-2022, 10:28 PM   #13
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fg results 03/01/2022

results for FG On 3-01-2022

top ranked results
2 for 2
Bet $112 return $167

second ranked
1-4
bet $30 return $41

3rd ranked
0 for 4
bet 30 return 0


total bet $172
returned 208
$1 return = $1.21
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Old 03-02-2022, 09:22 AM   #14
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Your response is the very essence of The Speed of Money concept.

However, the greater risk lies in the fact that most players confuse "doing your own handicapping in the hopes of finding something worth your while" with being profitable.

Formula is addressing (potential) LONG-TERM PROFITABILITY and Bustin Stones is addressing HAVING A GOOD DAY.

These are two distinctly different concepts.

It's hilarious how things have gotten to the point here where even the guy who sells software thinks the guy who hasn't wagered on racing in 20 years here and only does "academic studies" of gambling has the RIGHT approach.
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Old 03-02-2022, 09:58 AM   #15
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It's hilarious how things have gotten to the point here where even the guy who sells software thinks the guy who hasn't wagered on racing in 20 years here and only does "academic studies" of gambling has the RIGHT approach.
"all roads lead to Rome" It's just a matter of getting there alive.
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