Trips handicapping service...

[rsetup]

He had aome real fuzzy analysis of his picks at HKG the other day. Seems like there's always a way his picks make money. Even when they don't run. I tired of his nonsense and iggied him. Just so much absurdness one can take. Do me a favor, don't quote his nonsense.

[teddy]

trakus kicks but ! Had two $16.00 and a $50 this week.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by rsetup

He had aome real fuzzy analysis of his picks at HKG the other day. Seems like there's always a way his picks make money. Even when they don't run. I tired of his nonsense and iggied him. Just so much absurdness one can take. Do me a favor, don't quote his nonsense.

I’m not sure which of my last 3 HK threads you’re referring to. In any case, I guess it’s difficult for you to comprehend how Dutching 3 entries to Win in large fields can produce a consistent profit. That’s too bad because it’s a fairly simple concept that very often offers substantial rewards. It’s something that I’ve recently been sharing in the Selection forum instead of posting live selections for HK.

I also find it rather amusing that those who spend so much time BSing about the game never support their convictions by posting selections at all. (It's not very difficult to figure out why.) I realize that many can talk a good game and knock how others might play, but when it comes to actually profiting their lost (in more ways than one!)

[JJMartin]

Here is an idea:
Take the top 4 horses (BPPR or PSR) in any Allowance and up race (no maiden, no claiming). Then trip analyze just those 4 horses. If you can, add some physicality analysis. Do both with some rating system of your choice, just keep it consistent. The horse with the best rating of the top 4 would be the choice. The parameters above will reduce the amount of work required considerably.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by pandy

It's not that easy to get 100 gamblers to pay $50 a month.

Not really.

I charge equivalent of US $1,000 for three months (for one racetrack), only to give them a chance to replicate by betting on their own scale, and I maintain a rather long wait list.

But then you have to consistently make decent amount of money betting so that they do too, by simply following you blindly.

Of course, this revenue model will work only until I come across a losing season.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by speculus

Not really.

I charge equivalent of US $1,000 for three months (for one racetrack), only to give them a chance to replicate by betting on their own scale, and I maintain a rather long wait list.

But then you have to consistently make decent amount of money betting so that they do too, by simply following you blindly.

Of course, this revenue model will work only until I come across a losing season.

I like your website

[pandy]

Originally Posted by speculus

Not really.

I charge equivalent of US $1,000 for three months (for one racetrack), only to give them a chance to replicate by betting on their own scale, and I maintain a rather long wait list.

But then you have to consistently make decent amount of money betting so that they do too, by simply following you blindly.

Of course, this revenue model will work only until I come across a losing season.

Hi Prakash. I'm talking about in this country. Even in this country, handicappers or clockers selling information on the west coast have many more customers than their counterparts on the east coast. Markets are different.

You should tell us a little about the racing there. How is it different from the states?

[traynor]

Originally Posted by speculus

Not really.

I charge equivalent of US $1,000 for three months (for one racetrack), only to give them a chance to replicate by betting on their own scale, and I maintain a rather long wait list.

But then you have to consistently make decent amount of money betting so that they do too, by simply following you blindly.

Of course, this revenue model will work only until I come across a losing season.

That is the key point that most publishing "information" in North America seem to miss--information that is not profitable is worthless to most bettors. In marketing, it is called "selling an empty box."

If your product or service generates consistent profit, customers (at almost any fee) are easy to find. It is only those marketing "non-profit" output that find customers reluctant to buy.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by pandy

Hi Prakash. I'm talking about in this country. Even in this country, handicappers or clockers selling information on the west coast have many more customers than their counterparts on the east coast. Markets are different.

You should tell us a little about the racing there. How is it different from the states?

I think the following points stand out when contrasting your racing with ours:

1. The most important difference is ALL our racetracks are TURF racetracks. There are only 9 racetracks in India. Three of them, the ones at Pune, Hyderabad and Kolkata also have specially prepared and maintained monsoon strips, but they are TURF too.

2. We have a dual system: Tote as well as bookmakers. Most big players bet with bookmakers as they commit to a fixed price (odds) prevailing at the time of placing the bet, irrespective of the amount of bet.

3. The data, especially related to the finishing time, is absolutely accurate. A couple of race clubs offer accurate timings up to 1/1000th of a second for ALL finishers (though personally I prefer to limit my timing data only to 1/100th of a second).

4. English is not our first language, so you may find our race callers' diction (and my own too when I record the "audio" analysis for each race) outright funny.

5. At Mumbai and Pune (my home turf), my own performance for the last 9 straight racing seasons has been outstanding (strike rate hovering between 42 & 50%).

6. Here are links to some of our more popular racetracks:

Mumbai/Pune: www.RWITC.com
Bangalore: www.BangaloreRaces.com
Mysore: www.MysoreRaceClub.com
Hyderabad: www.Hydraces.com
Kolkata: www.RCTConline.com

[speculus]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I like your website

Thanks.

I think I am blessed with a very good TEAM. They look after almost everything else so that I can focus exclusively on handicapping research.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by traynor

That is the key point that most publishing "information" in North America seem to miss--information that is not profitable is worthless to most bettors. In marketing, it is called "selling an empty box."

If your product or service generates consistent profit, customers (at almost any fee) are easy to find. It is only those marketing "non-profit" output that find customers reluctant to buy.

I would beg to differ.

I think there are just too many excellent handicappers on this forum--some of them mighty gifted--I can say that with confidence because I have read their stuff and interacted with some of them in the past. So it may be wrong to run them down just because they wish to showcase their stuff and sell it to others who may value it.

Actually, there is not much to choose between two top handicappers after they cross a particular level of expertise. Yes, there is one final hurdle to cross before one "knows" one has finally arrived into the land of "consistent, sizable, and near-certain profits" as I like to call it.

There is that moment of "revelation" which "finds" you, if you get what I mean, and then there is no looking back. The revelation took years to find me, but no complaints.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by speculus

Thanks.

I think I am blessed with a very good TEAM. They look after almost everything else so that I can focus exclusively on handicapping research.

When you say "strike rate," am I correct in assuming that you do not mean, Win Percentage? Is your strike rate based on a combination, such as an exacta box? Or a combo bet win and place? If it's win percentage, to generate a 48% ROI profit on 43% with win bets only, that's really tough to do when betting thoroughbreds. Normally profit is higher with a lower win percentage.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by pandy

When you say "strike rate," am I correct in assuming that you do not mean, Win Percentage?

Yes, strike rate means Win Percentage.

Originally Posted by pandy

Is your strike rate based on a combination, such as an exacta box?

More than 95 percent of my bets are on the nose of the horse: only WIN.

The balance 5 percent may be SHOW bets (what you call SHOW here, we call PLACE there, a horse finishing in 1-2-3 in a field of 8 or more horses). These are mostly horses that offer at least 5-to-2 ($7.00 on a $2 bet).

Originally Posted by pandy

If it's win percentage, to generate a 48% ROI profit on 43% with win bets only, that's really tough to do when betting thoroughbreds. Normally profit is higher with a lower win percentage.

There were a number of pricey horses among the winners, so the average odds on winners were slightly better in that sample. We use the same formula as everyone does to work that out:

%Profit = (WP * AoW) - (1 - WP)

WP = win percentage
AoW = average odds on winners

[pandy]

Originally Posted by speculus

Yes, strike rate means Win Percentage.



More than 95 percent of my bets are on the nose of the horse: only WIN.

The balance 5 percent may be SHOW bets (what you call SHOW here, we call PLACE there, a horse finishing in 1-2-3 in a field of 8 or more horses). These are mostly horses that offer at least 5-to-2 ($7.00 on a $2 bet).



There were a number of pricey horses among the winners, so the average odds on winners were slightly better in that sample. We use the same formula as everyone does to work that out:

%Profit = (WP * AoW) - (1 - WP)

WP = win percentage
AoW = average odds on winners

That's awesome. I think the pp info there is similar to Europe, no fractions or pace figures. That would be an advantage for a sharp handicapper or team of handicappers who take the time to compile good data - perhaps hand time segments of the races, create variants, and do detailed trip analysis.

Congratulations on your success.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by pandy

That's awesome. I think the pp info there is similar to Europe, no fractions or pace figures. That would be an advantage for a sharp handicapper or team of handicappers who take the time to compile good data - perhaps hand time segments of the races, create variants, and do detailed trip analysis.

Congratulations on your success.

Thanks, Pandy.

The pp's have fractional times for each race for every furlong (check out http://bolrace.com/previous/display.aspx ), but I sometimes need the timings for "different" points of call than supplied by them, so in such cases I need to work out my own stuff for trip handicapping which, incidentally, I call "video handicapping".

Btw, Pandy, if you remember I had ordered a book from you sometime back, and the delivery was delayed due to problems at the post office in my town--you then sent me the pdf. I am unable locate it. If you don't mind, can you send it again?

I wish to read most of the recently published decent handicapping books to understand the current literature on the subject before I decide to write my own book. Of course, I don't mind paying once again. Thanks in advance.