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Old 09-21-2021, 12:03 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
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sometimes a 'Win' bet is best
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Old 09-21-2021, 03:17 PM   #17
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Surprised to hear so many play quinellas and boxed exactas. Just because a horse is a contender to win doesn't mean that he is a good bet for 2nd. Especially front runners in dirt sprints - seems like they finish 1st or 3rd more often that they finish 1st or 2nd.
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Old 09-21-2021, 09:04 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMan View Post
Surprised to hear so many play quinellas and boxed exactas. Just because a horse is a contender to win doesn't mean that he is a good bet for 2nd. Especially front runners in dirt sprints - seems like they finish 1st or 3rd more often that they finish 1st or 2nd.
That is one of my plays, two speed horses running 1-3 in Superfectas. Quite often it works out that way, though the last time Major General win and Stellar Tap ran much further back. I think it is a better trifecta or super bet in dirt sprints.
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Old 09-27-2021, 10:40 AM   #19
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I say doubles make up about 95% of my wagers. Recently I have been adding a bet if i miss my first leg double selection and really like the horse in the second half I use the will pay for my horse and bet a amount to get to the will pay.


ex race 1 #3 joe blow wins



I did not have joe blow in my wager the Double pay out for my horse is $100




Second leg my horse is 9-1 with 2 mins to post I would bet $10 to win. Basically having the double alive with the win bet.



This is used ONLY if the horse in the second leg is a best bet of the day by my standards.
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Old 09-27-2021, 12:37 PM   #20
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There are about 20 tracks where win bets showed a profit in the last year. No other bet showed a profit for me. At one stretch I was 0 for 35 at Oaklawn.
1891 bets on twinspires. 15.97% win rate.Sometimes 2 horses per race.
Lost $326.80 cents on win bets. -.11%. Bet $3087.00. For the most part I am a $2 bettor. Of the 44 tracks that I played if you eliminate the 5 worst, it leaves
1663 bets for a loss of -.03 percent and gets me to a loss of $83. A preliminary breakdown shows that I am a winner for the year on dirt sprints. But I relied on Twinspires for my record keeping and its going to take a while to totally be sure of this. I do know that there was a stretch of 50 turf races where I won only 4 races. Obviously I play too many longshots on the turf.
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:00 PM   #21
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There are about 20 tracks where win bets showed a profit in the last year. No other bet showed a profit for me. At one stretch I was 0 for 35 at Oaklawn.
1891 bets on twinspires. 15.97% win rate.Sometimes 2 horses per race.
Lost $326.80 cents on win bets. -.11%. Bet $3087.00. For the most part I am a $2 bettor. Of the 44 tracks that I played if you eliminate the 5 worst, it leaves
1663 bets for a loss of -.03 percent and gets me to a loss of $83. A preliminary breakdown shows that I am a winner for the year on dirt sprints. But I relied on Twinspires for my record keeping and its going to take a while to totally be sure of this. I do know that there was a stretch of 50 turf races where I won only 4 races. Obviously I play too many longshots on the turf.
sometimes checking records can be an eye-opener.

e.g. not uncommon for a player to remember a nice tri they hit, but later see that their win and exacta out-performed their tri.


This is a tough game!

If you don't have a sizeable overlay and then bet a conservative slice of your bankroll each time, your bankroll, including any short-term success usually goes the way of the sandcastle...

My basic belief of adding length to a wager (exotics multis), is that I prefer that their be an edge/value-opinion in at least both the first and the last legs. When I have that, I feel somewhat confident that it's justified.
Arguably there are times that extending beyond value still adds value - Say you have a big enough bankroll to support Pick-5 and Pick-6 play, and you have a big opinion on an important horse or two in the sequence, - then I feel it's still justified (return/takeout vs parlay).
Within such a sequence, I would still try to stick to the first/last general guide.
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:19 PM   #22
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sometimes checking records can be an eye-opener.

e.g. not uncommon for a player to remember a nice tri they hit, but later see that their win and exacta out-performed their tri.


This is a tough game!

If you don't have a sizeable overlay and then bet a conservative slice of your bankroll each time, your bankroll, including any short-term success usually goes the way of the sandcastle...

My basic belief of adding length to a wager (exotics multis), is that I prefer that their be an edge/value-opinion in at least both the first and the last legs. When I have that, I feel somewhat confident that it's justified.
Arguably there are times that extending beyond value still adds value - Say you have a big enough bankroll to support Pick-5 and Pick-6 play, and you have a big opinion on an important horse or two in the sequence, - then I feel it's still justified (return/takeout vs parlay).
Within such a sequence, I would still try to stick to the first/last general guide.
That seems like solid advice. The real eye opener was my failure at turf racing. Half way through a yearly breakdown and my win percent is going to be over 25% betting dirt sprints.
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:41 PM   #23
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Turf is tough.

In turf sprints, if I don't have a huge opinion against the chalk I'm better off passing.

With turf routes I can try to get into trip notes, and Pace Projector
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Old 09-27-2021, 01:48 PM   #24
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Of the 44 tracks that I played if you eliminate the 5 worst, it leaves
1663 bets for a loss of -.03 percent and gets me to a loss of $83. A preliminary breakdown shows that I am a winner for the year on dirt sprints.
have you read the Beyer $50,000 year book?

(I have a copy on the computer .pdf file ...)

He's got some interesting ideas, such as separating BETS from action-bets.
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Old 09-27-2021, 05:15 PM   #25
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have you read the Beyer $50,000 year book?

(I have a copy on the computer .pdf file ...)

He's got some interesting ideas, such as separating BETS from action-bets.
I have read it years back. I am using a pace/par/class method and refining it for 10 months. It shows potential but I really thought it would work on the turf.
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Old 09-27-2021, 05:54 PM   #26
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my favorite kind or race to bet - and I don't find it that often - is when I see a

fave bet down and I believe I have a good reason to think the crowd is wrong

and bet against the fave (several different ways to do that)

the kind of race I hate the most is when I like the fave along with everyone else

and he's bet way down



I know some will key him over some shots to try to get some value in the exotics but I really don't like doing that and haven't had much success

I've seen numerous instances of a bet down fave paying very little when on top in the exotics

it's a case of - that idea is just too obvious



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Old 10-04-2021, 03:11 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Win, win/place, 1 unit win, 3 units place at 9-2 or higher.
Sometimes exactas, maybe a double, but it's not often I see two bettable races in a row anymore.
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Originally Posted by pandy View Post
The exacta is still a good wager. You can win even if your horse doesn't win.
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The exacta. It's economical, and it has retained its value...unlike the trifecta, the pick-3 and the superfecta...which now pay only a fraction of what they used to pay. Whenever a newcomer asks me for betting advice in this game...I tell him to stick with the exactas exclusively.
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I do think doubles if played selectively may present some of the best value in the game. It's a short enough sequence where if you beat a favorite you can have some very nice doubles going and it isn't so long of a series that you're almost sure to have an underlay mixed in there somewhere to dilute your value like in the longer horizontals.

So for me, win first then exactas or doubles depending upon the situation at hand.
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I say doubles make up about 95% of my wagers.
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Originally Posted by maddog42 View Post
There are about 20 tracks where win bets showed a profit in the last year. No other bet showed a profit for me.

Some experienced Horseplayers here at PA

Win first = simple, concentrated reflection of your opinion. Some advocate 'investing' over 'speculating' and if that's possible in horse racing, that style would be Win Betting.

Exacta and Doubles - A lot of us occasionally find plays here as sort of a bread and butter. Some look exclusively to an Ex or DD.
-These are solid wagers. For one thing, (other than some Pick5s and special wagers or carryovers) the Exacta and the Double are the only decent Takeout% offerings other than Win Place Show, and the Ex DD offer some chance at getting an acceptable return.
A single win overlay and a correct second piece is enough to get fair value or better. Two strong overlays for First-Second exacta or First-First in a DD can sometimes produce exponential value.
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Old 11-17-2021, 12:19 PM   #28
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Often refer to Barry Meadow's Exacta and Daily Double Overlay Charts to see if the EX and DD combos offer Value before wagering. Those charts seem to have become outdated due to smaller fields and lower minimums. Plus modern computer players can now recognize and pounce on overlays in these pools and water down the value on legitimate contenders. The common scenario is that I am forced off of horses that I prefer due to lack of value - for this reason I can not consider the EX and DD as my "Bread and Butter".
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:42 PM   #29
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Pick 3's or 4's as long as I can toss out either one obvious heavy favorite or two mild ones. It has always seemed to me a lot of people always throw in the morning line favorite. If you get all morning line favorites winning quite often the bets don't even pay parlay. If all the morning favorites lose you can get some pretty huge returns compared to the parlay price.
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