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Old 11-29-2021, 02:44 PM   #1
formula_2002
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beating the win pool by using wps and exacta pools

As always, trying to outperform the win pool returns using my bet sizes.
Here are the results using a my formula boxing every exacta board combination (itself a major feat).
In this 12 races sample if you won every one of the 12 races your $1 win bet return was $80.90
Using my bet sizes, the $1 win bet returned was $92.35 a 1.14 advantage.
Like any game of chance, not every turn of the cards leads to a profitable hand.
In this case the play exceeded the straight win bet 67% of the time.

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Last edited by formula_2002; 11-29-2021 at 02:49 PM.
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Old 11-29-2021, 04:27 PM   #2
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Old 11-29-2021, 04:44 PM   #3
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results

$1 win returned $4.10
my $1 return was $3.26

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Old 11-29-2021, 04:57 PM   #4
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Old 11-29-2021, 05:47 PM   #5
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beating the win pool by using wps and exacta pools

Please forgive me but I do not quite understand how a profit is returned. If you bet all the combinations in an exacta race what happens if the favorite and second favorites come in first and second or in the reverse? Would not this create a loss? Please help and thanks in advance.
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Old 11-29-2021, 06:00 PM   #6
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Please forgive me but I do not quite understand how a profit is returned. If you bet all the combinations in an exacta race what happens if the favorite and second favorites come in first and second or in the reverse? Would not this create a loss? Please help and thanks in advance.
It probably would result in a loss. 1st favorite / 2nd favorite or reversed. I think formula is betting multiple races. That is probably how he returns a profit.
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Old 11-29-2021, 06:32 PM   #7
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Please forgive me but I do not quite understand how a profit is returned. If you bet all the combinations in an exacta race what happens if the favorite and second favorites come in first and second or in the reverse? Would not this create a loss? Please help and thanks in advance.
Hi, although my entire exacta board is presented, the play is your win pick over all of the bet sizes listed in the picks column. The objective is for your win pick over all to out perform a straight win bet. You only bet 1 horse to win . Hope that helps. Not every bet will outperform a straight win bet, but enough may outperform the straight win play. See the sample for a 12 race result.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:05 AM   #8
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Shouldn't you try to limit it to races where a pure dutch in the exact pays more than the win bet. That's not too hard to calculate. The risk is that the win/exacta prices change after you make your wager and you wind up in the wrong pool or that a single exact prices changes and you didn't bet enough on that combination.

My variation would be leaving out a single horse underneath I think is very overbet
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Old 11-30-2021, 03:17 PM   #9
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Shouldn't you try to limit it to races where a pure dutch in the exact pays more than the win bet. That's not too hard to calculate. The risk is that the win/exacta prices change after you make your wager and you wind up in the wrong pool or that a single exact prices changes and you didn't bet enough on that combination.

My variation would be leaving out a single horse underneath I think is very overbet
In that regard, I looked at a few races, and what was promising was when the calculated "dutch" probability exceeded the win probability and the bet size was tested agains the win probability and the "ducth" probability.

I'll let you know how things work out after 35 races.
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Old 11-30-2021, 06:00 PM   #10
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In that regard, I looked at a few races, and what was promising was when the calculated "dutch" probability exceeded the win probability and the bet size was tested agains the win probability and the "ducth" probability.

I'll let you know how things work out after 35 races.
here are the results for the 22 races 11-29-2021

$1 win bet on all wining bets $146.10
My previous reuslts 1 proportional odds exacta bet $143.80
My new results $155.00


13 of the 22 races have a return greater that a straight win bet
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:27 PM   #11
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here are the results for the 34 races for 11-28-2021 and 11-29-2021

$1 win bet on all wining bets $227
My previous reuslts 1 proportional odds exacta bet $236
My new results $268


20 of the 34 races have a return greater that a straight win bet

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now there were 27 races when my picks finished 2nd

question is, in those races will a proportional odds bet on the favorite be profitable .

I'll structure excel to investigate all these conditions.

which I had my old dbase skills
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Old 12-01-2021, 12:02 PM   #12
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starting off today in a good way
Sa Ken R1

public $1 return on their 2nd choice in the win betting returned #3.85,
mine, was $5.8
1

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Old 12-01-2021, 07:11 PM   #13
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HERE ARE THE RESULTS FOR TODAYS RACES AT SA FAIR.

I'LL BE TABULATING HOW MY TOP THREE FAIR

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Old 12-02-2021, 12:57 PM   #14
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BY NO MEANS DEFINITIVE, TOO FEW RACES
AFTER 47 RACES

MY TOP TWO PICKS (MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, THE SAME AS THE PUBLIC'S)
MY $1 RETURN WAS $.88
THE PUBLIC'S $.77

THE REMAINING PICKS:
MY $1 RETURN $.96
THE PUBLICS $.99


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Old 12-02-2021, 05:39 PM   #15
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BY NO MEANS DEFINITIVE, TOO FEW RACES
AFTER 47 RACES

MY TOP TWO PICKS (MORE OFTEN THAN NOT, THE SAME AS THE PUBLIC'S)
MY $1 RETURN WAS $.88
THE PUBLIC'S $.77

THE REMAINING PICKS:
MY $1 RETURN $.96
THE PUBLICS $.99


correction

THE REMAINING PICKS:
MY $1 RETURN $.75
THE PUBLICS $.80
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