Interesting Article on Prediction

[traynor]

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2014...see-the-future

"As you might expect, these elite forecasters tended to score better on measures of intelligence than the other participants. But they all shared one other trait too: open-mindedness. In everyday life, open-mindedness may be mistaken for having liberal political views, but in psychology it is thought to reflect how well you deal with uncertainty. Crucially, open-minded people tend to be able to see problems from all sides, which seems to help forecasters overcome their preconceptions in the light of new evidence. “You need to change your mind fast, and often,” says Tetlock."

"Tetlock is also looking into ways to exploit the forecasters’ collective intelligence. Many psychologists believe that experts working in teams perform worse than those working individually, since they soon become “yes men” who reinforce each other’s biases. “It becomes the madness of the crowds,” says Tetlock. But with some training on how to critique others’ views, and respond positively to alternative viewpoints, the participants achieved the best results when they were allowed to cooperate more actively."

It would seem the (tentative) conclusions are in direct opposition to the processes popularized by The Wisom of Crowds and Blink. It would also seem that mindless repetition of the old ways may carry the seeds of its own destruction.

[Robert Goren]

I did not think that it was a secret that there are people who "super" at almost everything. Chances are you know or have at met some who is super at something. Think about it long you should come up with someone. I consider these people born with a talent for whatever they do like people who born with a talent for music. The idea of super predictors intrigues me as horse player as probably does most of us who post here. Hopeful there will be information coming on them.

[acorn54]

those people the gods want to make mad, they first let them see the future

[burnsy]

A very powerful thing.....an open mind. It has nothing to do with political views. If you have an open mind you figured out that both sides suck and they will eventually implode this country un checked. An open mind can see every side of the story, from every angle. Only then do they make an opinion. They will even listen to people that disagree....why? Because sometimes you are wrong and they are right. I admit I may laugh at it.....but I always realize there's a possibility I could get burned too later.

If you have an open mind gambling, you are never surprised by ANY outcome. You understand winning AND losing is part of your universe. There will always be people that follow the trends, the talk, the hype. Then they will even put their money where their heart is. That's just too easy, someone with an open mind will eventually get their lunch money like stealing. Most people are led by emotion not wit. That's why most can't gamble. This is called logic. Once a person bets with their heart without understanding the odds or "the gamble". That's basically a person that only wins with luck. So they rarely do win.

Logic is understanding that over bet horses are a bad (win) bet in ANY horse race....even if it means losing some. If a football team that's clearly superior
gets points because the other team has the "Hollywood" QB. You go with the dog. It can't be because: "I heard this, saw this or read that." You have to look at every angle and weigh it ALL YOURSELF. The jackasses on the internet..."never been tested", "can't lose" all the other BS. Easy marks for someone that can think for themselves. If you have to extrapolate all of your thoughts from others without a SOLID bottom line of your own at the end....based on more logic than emotion. You won't predict crap with any confidence. That's why these people have higher intelligence and can predict. They have an open mind to hear, see, feel as much as possible (even if they dislike it) without following emotion then the balls to put it to the test. Right or wrong. Understanding this is what makes their predictions right so often. Understand the gamble, the odds and the fact ANYTHING can happen no matter what you think andyou will open your mind. This has really helped me and I've only realized it with maturity. When I was younger I never understood it, most never do. Just read some of that crappy political section. Yeah, those two political party's, ideologies or whatever you want to call it. Tons of open minds there....why do you think its getting so bad? WWE

[traynor]

Originally Posted by burnsy

A very powerful thing.....an open mind. It has nothing to do with political views. If you have an open mind you figured out that both sides suck and they will eventually implode this country un checked. An open mind can see every side of the story, from every angle. Only then do they make an opinion. They will even listen to people that disagree....why? Because sometimes you are wrong and they are right. I admit I may laugh at it.....but I always realize there's a possibility I could get burned too later.

If you have an open mind gambling, you are never surprised by ANY outcome. You understand winning AND losing is part of your universe. There will always be people that follow the trends, the talk, the hype. Then they will even put their money where their heart is. That's just too easy, someone with an open mind will eventually get their lunch money like stealing. Most people are led by emotion not wit. That's why most can't gamble. This is called logic. Once a person bets with their heart without understanding the odds or "the gamble". That's basically a person that only wins with luck. So they rarely do win.

Logic is understanding that over bet horses are a bad (win) bet in ANY horse race....even if it means losing some. If a football team that's clearly superior
gets points because the other team has the "Hollywood" QB. You go with the dog. It can't be because: "I heard this, saw this or read that." You have to look at every angle and weigh it ALL YOURSELF. The jackasses on the internet..."never been tested", "can't lose" all the other BS. Easy marks for someone that can think for themselves. If you have to extrapolate all of your thoughts from others without a SOLID bottom line of your own at the end....based on more logic than emotion. You won't predict crap with any confidence. That's why these people have higher intelligence and can predict. They have an open mind to hear, see, feel as much as possible (even if they dislike it) without following emotion then the balls to put it to the test. Right or wrong. Understanding this is what makes their predictions right so often. Understand the gamble, the odds and the fact ANYTHING can happen no matter what you think andyou will open your mind. This has really helped me and I've only realized it with maturity. When I was younger I never understood it, most never do. Just read some of that crappy political section. Yeah, those two political party's, ideologies or whatever you want to call it. Tons of open minds there....why do you think its getting so bad? WWE

There are varying degrees of open-mindedness, as there are varying interpretations of what the term means. I think your definition is fairly accurate. Perhaps even more important than an "open mind" is the ability to observe, calculate, and act--without closing one's mind to all other alternatives.

I don't mean that in a trivial sense, because the concept is not trivial. There is a technique in some martial arts called aiuchi that utilizes such a strategy. In most cases, all that is needed to defeat an opponent is to entice that opponent into committing himself or herself to a given course of action (or response, or strategy, or tactic). Once the "decision" is made, it will be over before the opponent realizes they have placed themselves in an untenable situation.

Betting is much the same. Bettors tend to fall in love with their strategies and to continue using them (and advocating them to anyone willing to listen) even when they know they don't work. Cognitive dissonance kicks in, and many would rather continue losing, or winning trivial amounts, or avoiding wagering altogether with some ego-saving excuse like "I don't really need the money."

The most useful form of "open mnd" may well be that which is referred to in Japanese as mushin:
"Mushin (無心; Japanese mushin; English translation "no mind") is a mental state into which very highly trained martial artists are said to enter during combat. They also practice this mental state during everyday activities. The term is shortened from mushin no shin (a Zen expression meaning the mind without mind and is also referred to as the state of "no-mindness". That is, a mind not fixed or occupied by thought or emotion and thus open to everything.

Mushin is achieved when a person's mind is free from thoughts of anger, fear, or ego during combat or everyday life. There is an absence of discursive thought and judgment, so the person is totally free to act and react towards an opponent without hesitation and without disturbance from such thoughts. At this point, a person relies not on what they think should be the next move, but what is their trained natural reaction or what is felt intuitively. It is not a state of relaxed, near-sleepfulness, however. The mind could be said to be working at a very high speed, but with no intention, plan or direction.

Some masters believe that mushin is the state where a person finally understands the uselessness of techniques and becomes truly free to move. In fact, that person will no longer even consider themselves as "fighters" but merely living beings moving through space."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mushin

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by traynor

"Tetlock is also looking into ways to exploit the forecasters’ collective intelligence. Many psychologists believe that experts working in teams perform worse than those working individually, since they soon become “yes men” who reinforce each other’s biases. “It becomes the madness of the crowds,” says Tetlock. But with some training on how to critique others’ views, and respond positively to alternative viewpoints, the participants achieved the best results when they were allowed to cooperate more actively."

That is interesting.

I would think that in general, a truly elite forecaster would be better matched with elite accurate information, than with a team of other elite forecasters.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That is interesting.

I would think that in general, a truly elite forecaster would be better matched with elite accurate information, than with a team of other elite forecasters.

Not so. Extensive research--in particular with the Delphi Decision Model and variations--indicate strongly that group decision making can be more accurate than solo efforts. Definitely not "the wisdom of crowds" (if any exists), but rather filling in the gaps that an individual may fall into because of his or her own perceptual biases and cognitive dissonance. And to compensate for the inability of the individual to perform competent self-calibration.

The trick (in groups) is to focus on the quality of the decisions, rather than on ego-stroking games of who gets to play the 800 pound gorilla. The Delphi process is useful in that regard.