Breeders Cup Help

[HHE10]

So, Im not even close to finishing or even starting my handicapping for the Breeders Cup yet. But wondering if anyone had any suggestions for wagering or have any selections.


I will be leaving this up for anyone to post there selections and tips from me.


Thanks and good luck to all on the Breeders Cup !!

[CheckMark]

Hey post in my thread in the selections section! Thanks bro!

[JohnGalt1]

I make Performance Class Ratings from William L. Scott's book. I make my own because I have made adjustments from the book. On change I've made is I use only finish positions.


Saturday Race 6 turf 1 3/8. Foreign horses' ratings are designated with an F prefix.


E&E/P


217
322
378

Unknown Running style

F-569
F-435
F-375
F-365
F-752

Sustained

420
242
627
one turf race
331
274


I start my search with the top 3 PCR horses. In these type of mixed races, foreign versus American stable horse I usually take the best of both.

This race I bet both Sister Charlie and Eziyra to win and added the Wild Illusion an exacta.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

I make Performance Class Ratings from William L. Scott's book. I make my own because I have made adjustments from the book. On change I've made is I use only finish positions.


Saturday Race 6 turf 1 3/8. Foreign horses' ratings are designated with an F prefix.


E&E/P


217
322
378

Unknown Running style

F-569
F-435
F-375
F-365
F-752

Sustained

420
242
627
one turf race
331
274


I start my search with the top 3 PCR horses. In these type of mixed races, foreign versus American stable horse I usually take the best of both.

This race I bet both Sister Charlie and Eziyra to win and added the Wild Illusion an exacta.

Hey what is the book called so I can make the ratings you do?

[headhawg]

Total Victory at the Track or How Will Your Horse Run Today?

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Hey what is the book called so I can make the ratings you do?

It's "Total Victory at the Track." Published in 1977 I think. William L. Scott was the father of thoroughbred writers Bill and Scott Finley, thus pen name.


He created Performance Class Ratings.


Step one count all horses in each race.


Step 2 add second call positions of horse.


Step 3 add finish positions.


Step 4 add second and finish calls.

Step 5 make class adjustments. If todays race is $10k claiming, adjust one two, or three points up or down to total. Example $12k subtract on point, $16k 2 points, if very high quality race subtract 3 points. I use 8 levels for 3 points, $62k claiming, or $32k open allowance.


Step 6 divide final adjusted number by horses faced and I have a PCR rating.


Example--Race 6 Sunday Santa Anita 6.5f turf $50k open claiming


Tiz a Billy 71 horses in his 8 turf races. 14 at second call 27 at final calls.


71/14+27=41.

He had two 2 point lower class races. and six 2 point higher class races. 2x6=12 points minus 2x2=4 points for an 8 point adjustment.

71/14=27=41-8=33

Divide 71 by33 = 215

[JohnGalt1]

I have made my own adjustments, which work for me, especially since his book was written so long ago.

I only use finish calls, because I list horses in their running styles on my worksheet.

So my adjustments are halved.

I made a class comparison chart to make the class adjustments easier a faster.

Open $4k stake = $5k Optional and open allowance = $16 starter allowance = $10 claim = $16 Mdn Special = $50k mdn claimers.


The chart levels are 20% up and down.


This allows me to make ratings for foreign races.


Because of the inequality of the purses, I find class more reflective of the quality of the race.

Also, a horse who finishes second in a field of ten has beaten more horses than finishing second in a field of 6 at the same class.


My rating for Tiz a Billy is 71/27-4=23 PCR 309


The rating alone means nothing except to compare to the other horses.


I can make a PCR if a horse has 3 or more races on a surface. If the race is a dirt race I only use dirt races, same for turf. If 3-4 races I put rating in parentheses.


Tiz a Billy shows 10 races, but 2 were dirt races.


In this race the is 34/11-2.5=8.5 PCR (400) 4 turf races
The is 77/33-9.5=23.5 PCR 328
And for a non-contender the is 43/30-3=27 PCR 159

I look at PCR's like a baseball batting average. Who do you want hitting for you?


I handicap with pen and paper, so after I compute the PCR I list form actor ratings, also from Scott's book, and then Hambleton pace ratings giving me a class, form and pace/speed rating to compare the field.


If a horse, or horses is in the top 3 PCR and pace/speed ratings with no form defects has an excellent chance to win. If a forth horse is within 10% of the third horse I will include. I've seen some races where 2/3's can be included.


Today's 8th race 7 horses of 10 are close with one horse only having 2 turf races so should also be included. In these races I rely on form and pace/speed if I play, but usually pass these types of races.


PCR's are almost worthless in maiden races, since most horse don't have enough races to rate. Today's 7th race, only 3 horses have enough races to rate of 14 horses.

And maiden claiming horses have many races to rate, and horse that finish in the money often and don't win can get high ratings where the maiden special drop down will get a low rating, even with the high class minus points, so in these races class rules over PCR.


Just as speed figures shouldn't be absolute, neither should PCR.

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

It's "Total Victory at the Track." Published in 1977 I think. William L. Scott was the father of thoroughbred writers Bill and Scott Finley, thus pen name.


He created Performance Class Ratings.


Step one count all horses in each race.


Step 2 add second call positions of horse.


Step 3 add finish positions.


Step 4 add second and finish calls.

Step 5 make class adjustments. If todays race is $10k claiming, adjust one two, or three points up or down to total. Example $12k subtract on point, $16k 2 points, if very high quality race subtract 3 points. I use 8 levels for 3 points, $62k claiming, or $32k open allowance.


Step 6 divide final adjusted number by horses faced and I have a PCR rating.


Example--Race 6 Sunday Santa Anita 6.5f turf $50k open claiming


Tiz a Billy 71 horses in his 8 turf races. 14 at second call 27 at final calls.


71/14+27=41.

He had two 2 point lower class races. and six 2 point higher class races. 2x6=12 points minus 2x2=4 points for an 8 point adjustment.

71/14=27=41-8=33

Divide 71 by33 = 215

So just to clarify I am adding all the horses positions that he was at at the 2nd calls and finish? And I can’t understand class?

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

So just to clarify I am adding all the horses positions that he was at at the 2nd calls and finish? And I can’t understand class?

Can someone help Me please with class?

[Buckeye]

trying2win
01-26-2004, 12:51 AM
Amazin,

--Now that you mention a Dr. Brown, the name D.D. Brown comes to mind. I might have seen his name in an old edition of Phillips Racing Newletter many years ago. Yeah, he might have sold something called the 'MAGIC SQUARES' system, or the 'MAGIC TRIANGLE' system, or some name similar to those two. I just can't remember exact name of the system for sure.

T2W

Been there, done that, owned and wrote code (in Basic) for the PC 6 too!

"As for advice, try and find imbalances in the numbers, that is to say, margins, rankings, other factors like trainer, distance, class, etc. I use Post Time Daily past performances and find the selections feature useful for this purpose. Pick your own lines if you're so inclined. Once you have some evidence of imbalance, try and come up with a way to exploit it. That's where creative thought comes in."

That's all I got. Whatever you come up with could be better than I can.