speed figures analysis ?

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by formula_2002
cjmilkowski

Except for the fact that you are ahead, and i'm very happy for you, there is not much I can say given the data you presented.

Does it pove that you can make steady profits in the win pool. NO.

To be meaningful, you have to start to examine the odds on small incremental basis,and it has to meet SIGNIFICANCE TESTING.

Best thing I can think of to say is quit while you are ahead and spend the winnings.


Joe M

Joe,

You quote all these "statistics" and throw around the term "significance testing". I am curious what statistics courses you have taken. Bonus question: what is the probability that the parameter lies in a 95% confidence interval?

AD

[Fastracehorse]

<No one bets averages - they bet single events. The secret is to win enough single events to put more cash in to your pockets than comes out.

And as I said to Joe, the best profits are always short-term.

Also, I post my selections on DRF. I have a thread devoted to my longshots: Top pick winners only - 6-1 or greater only - posted before the race only.

I'm at # 47 so far this year - and there are two one hundred dollar-plus winners in that total.

Short-term value - sorry far-sighted Joe.



fffastt

[Shacopate]

I agree that overcoming the takeout is tough. Especially for the average player or weekend warrior. And I think it's great that you've compiled tremendous data on the sport. Alot of truth can be found in mathmatics. But I think you're overlooking a serious factor: TALENT.

Some people are more talented (or gifted) than others. Be it music, art or in the case of a 10 year-old chess grandmaster. And I've seen some very talented horseplayers.

One who possesses an intuative ability to predict form cycles.

Another who makes his the majority of his wagers based on a horses appearance.

Neither one has a second job.

You may think these are abberations, but I know some very talented "grinders" as well. The types that bet many races a day and come out on top because they know where to find VALUE.

Alot of winning players I know are specialist that focus on one type of race such as turf or maiden races. But all of them have one thing in common: they work their asses off.

And they possess high degree of talent.

[formula_2002]

GT and all.
I'd be happy to answer any question on the work I'm doing.
Much of the work is posted on my web page.

[formula_2002]

I'll make a reference to a book that one of the PA members alerted me to when we were both on Prodigy

Its a bit pricy.
Over $60 about 8 or 9 years ago.

While the math in the book appears to be involved, the object of each of the appox 65 papers the conclusions tend to be clear.

Many of the authors are from places like Prinston, Yale, The Rand corp, The Federal Reserve Bank, etc.

There is also a paper William Benter
of the "HK Betting Syndicate, Honk Kong"

Perhaps this is the same syndicate Rick referred to in aprevious note.


"Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets" Edited by Hausch, Lo and Ziemba. Published by the Academic Press.

Joe M

[hurrikane]

Here's another book that may interest everyone,

"Losing for Dummies"

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead....INGPICKSX.html

[cj]

Originally posted by formula_2002
...

Many of the authors are from places like Prinston, Yale, The Rand corp, The Federal Reserve Bank, etc...

Joe M

Is Prinston anywhere near Princeton, in New Jersey?

CJ

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by formula_2002

Many of the authors are from places like Prinston, Yale, The Rand corp, The Federal Reserve Bank, etc.
Joe M

Is this your answer to my question? I will assume that you have never taken a course in statistics?

AD

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by formula_2002

"Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets" Edited by Hausch, Lo and Ziemba. Published by the Academic Press.

Joe M

I believe Ziemba is also known as Dr. "Z". He has been known to bet huge amounts of money... sometimes up to $3.00 on his place and show bets. His last known address was a cardboard box under an I-95 overpass.

-L.C.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by anotherdave
Joe,

You quote all these "statistics" and throw around the term "significance testing". I am curious what statistics courses you have taken. Bonus question: what is the probability that the parameter lies in a 95% confidence interval?

AD

Sorry Dave, I missed your question.

I have not taken a stat course since high school, and that could have been 50 years ago. (I went to a Top NY high school).

If you go to my web page, you will find an interactive excel table on "significance testing" that I prepared.
I would certainly appreciate your comments.

The basis for the work represented by the interactive excel table is documented on the web page.


Joe M

[formula_2002]

lousycapper


Wow a guy from the west coast with a sense of humor.
thinks are looking up..


Z didn't write the book, he edited it with the others..

[Jaguar]

Joe, I used Dr. Z's method, as programmed in a module for my HP41CV calculator, successfully for 3 years in the early '90's.

Sadly, the method lost its effectiveness as the betting pools became more accurate- due to the appearance of better pace programs- not to mention strong A.I. discs, such as Thorobrain, Multi-Strats, All-Ways, etc.

Everybody got smart and gradually the only value left in the game was the win bet(in States with lower vig) and the tris and supers.

That's the condition we are in today. Among the small group of guys whom I know to be consistent winners, only one of them bets exactas. For me, the bet is the win bet, since I can step up after a loss and make my profit goal for the day. Moreover, I won't bet below even money.

I did a casual study of my bets, using Multi-Strats, and I see that I rarely bet an Allowance race below a 78% consistency rating and that my larger bets are in races to which Multi-Strats assigns a consistency rating of 84% and above.

You made a good point about the efficiency of the exacta pools, I almost never see any value there.

If Dr. Z were to analyze horse racing mutuels today, I believe he would be compelled to look elsewhere than the place and show pools for value. I would enjoy reading his conclusions after such a study.

All the best,

Jaguar

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by formula_2002
lousycapper


Wow a guy from the west coast with a sense of humor.

============================

Yup, a few of us left-coasters do... it's the only way we can survive.

-L.C.

[Fastracehorse]

<Many of the authors are from places like Prinston, Yale, The Rand corp, The Federal Reserve Bank, etc.

But are they horse players #1??

And #2, horse racing isn't run solely in a theoretical world - it is bound by less academic, but equally important hypotheticals.

Also, that book made alot of assumptions - mistakes non-players would assume.

fffastt

[Racehorse]

formula ..

thanks for the reply as to using Excel to open the files from your site ...

use and run four computers at my home office none of which has an Excel program currently loaded up.

as selective about what is used on each of the four boxes as I am concerning the types of races upon which I wager.

I'm a daytrader for wage and profit, so I have one box exclusively run my charting program, one which has only my trading screen, one email only, and the new one I bought a couple of weeks ago is for web trafficing, etc .... and I've not downloaded Office onto it yet.

today, when I finish downloading my just received copies of Norton SystemWorks 2003 onto the machines, I'm going fishing, so tomorrow I'll download Office and take a look at your files.

I've read all the messages on this particular subject here (def NOT all the subjects since my last visit a couple of months ago) and I can see you've proceeded to stir up a nest of discussion, to say the least.

and just to add a side comment ....
yes, I have a positive ROI for both the Derby and Preakness this year ... as well as last year, too.
even though these were NOT claiming sprints ...
one of my "other catagories" for wagering is

black type stakes


I'll be back in touch.

horse