Whales: A Little Back Story (blog post)

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I've seen guys use the word "proprietary" to try and make it look like there software program is really doing something special! when in reality it's doing nothing, but adding this with this to create an illusion like this rating is exclusive!

yep...marketing is indeed a thing

[mountainman]

The subconscious biases built into my thought processes have always hindered me. I'm just now starting to realize that. And this applies not only to racing, but even to life, itself.

If knowledge were weaponry, I sometimes deploy mine more in a manner that pleases me than in the best way to wreak havoc on the enemy.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

The subconscious biases built into my thought processes have always hindered me. I'm just now starting to realize that. And this applies not only to racing, but even to life, itself.

If knowledge were weaponry, I sometimes deploy mine more in a manner that pleases me than in the best way to wreak havoc on the enemy.

A wise course of action...IMO. Of course, I am a pacifist...

[bucktron]

Who controls the depth of the track surface(Uniformity[Depth and Density] from Apex to Rail) from day to day or subtle changes from race to race? Prior knowledge of Ground Crew Preparation(intent) in conjunction with reasonable computer simulations may be a powerful tool(edge). How closely is the Ground Crew's preparation for each day's races monitored? Maybe this is a dumb question however, I think it may have some merit.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by bucktron

Who controls the depth of the track surface(Uniformity[Depth and Density] from Apex to Rail) from day to day or subtle changes from race to race? Prior knowledge of Ground Crew Preparation(intent) in conjunction with reasonable computer simulations may be a powerful tool(edge). How closely is the Ground Crew's preparation for each day's races monitored? Maybe this is a dumb question however, I think it may have some merit.

I've seen small tracks where coming out of a chute would be raked out into the exit from the chute, so the inside horses looked like they hit quicksand.

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

LOL
It's so nice to have supporters everywhere.

Which part do you feel is fictional?

there is a lot of fiction.
stop pretending you are on the inside.
you're not.


read was minor compared to some.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by steveb

there is a lot of fiction.
stop pretending you are on the inside.
you're not.
read was minor compared to some.

I call 'em as I see them.

You're the guy who told me I was out of my depth or similar a few years ago, right?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bucktron

Who controls the depth of the track surface(Uniformity[Depth and Density] from Apex to Rail) from day to day or subtle changes from race to race? Prior knowledge of Ground Crew Preparation(intent) in conjunction with reasonable computer simulations may be a powerful tool(edge). How closely is the Ground Crew's preparation for each day's races monitored? Maybe this is a dumb question however, I think it may have some merit.

I've thought the same thing for a long time.

Whenever there are large sums of money at stake someone out there will try to cheat.

It could be paranoia or coincidence, but I've seen too many races in my lifetime where I didn't understand the betting on the 1st race and then the horse taking the extra money wired on a day there just happened to be a very speed biased racetrack. It was almost as if someone knew there was a bias before having to observe the races. It has happened enough times over the long years that I don't like betting the 1st race. I want to see at least one race.

[classhandicapper]

I think the key to competing against the computer guys is to identify areas that are not so easy to program (field strength/class) or where the sample sizes are small and you have to make subjective decisions (new trainer patterns and bias) or where you've taken it down to a very specific set of circumstances (very specific trips). That way, you'll either have information they don't have or possibly have greater skill in a subjective area even if they are hiring someone to make those judgements for them.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I call 'em as I see them.

You're the guy who told me I was out of my depth or similar a few years ago, right?

You're one of the reasons i come here, sir. Knowledge, innovation, and constant eagerness to exchange ideas. That's quite a package, Dave. My compliments. Happy holidays.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've thought the same thing for a long time.

Whenever there are large sums of money at stake someone out there will try to cheat.

It could be paranoia or coincidence, but I've seen too many races in my lifetime where I didn't understand the betting on the 1st race and then the horse taking the extra money wired on a day there just happened to be a very speed biased racetrack. It was almost as if someone knew there was a bias before having to observe the races. It has happened enough times over the long years that I don't like betting the 1st race. I want to see at least one race.

Many an afternoon have I observed our maintenance crew in action as i took an easy jog around the premises. I've found that discerning (impending) bias is not as simple as one might think. A potential reason for this is that the intrinsic nature of a surface is not so easy to alter. A key member of mnr's crew has described the maintenance process to me as a sometimes futile attempt to combat recurrent biases.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Many an afternoon have I observed our maintenance crew in action as i took an easy jog around the premises. I've found that discerning (impending) bias is not as simple as one might think. A potential reason for this is that the intrinsic nature of a surface is not so easy to alter. A key member of mnr's crew has described the maintenance process to me as a sometimes futile attempt to combat recurrent biases.

it used to be quick and easy to spot the bias at the Mountain. not so anymore... the place you can find a bias fast is at Saratoga, but it doesn't help much because so many races are on the turf.

in the past month, the Mountain racing has been outstanding even though there isn't turf and not the best horses. the races have been big fields and very competitive. there have been plenty of different trainers winning, some i never heard of. if you are the type of handicapper that likes to handicap horses and not trainers, this is your type of action. i suspect it will remain the same through December 15.

[teddy]

Seems like all you guys could come up with a good exacta system. All this knowledge in different areas. Bias. Wagering strategy. Years ago everyone on here was like scared they were going to give up some great holy grail...Most are betting $5 exactas. Surrounding your self with smart people is a good strategy, group together and try stuff. With large rebates you might get there.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

it used to be quick and easy to spot the bias at the Mountain. not so anymore... the place you can find a bias fast is at Saratoga, but it doesn't help much because so many races are on the turf.

in the past month, the Mountain racing has been outstanding even though there isn't turf and not the best horses. the races have been big fields and very competitive. there have been plenty of different trainers winning, some i never heard of. if you are the type of handicapper that likes to handicap horses and not trainers, this is your type of action. i suspect it will remain the same through December 15.

I've been pleasantly surprised by the quality of our cards the last few weeks. Traditionally, this time of year sees us close on a strong note.

As to the decreasing frequency of detectable track biases here-a new track-super took over two (or so) years back and not only has eliminated the long-entrenched stigma of our track playing dead-rail, but has made a fair surface the norm.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think the key to competing against the computer guys is to identify areas that are not so easy to program (field strength/class) or where the sample sizes are small and you have to make subjective decisions (new trainer patterns and bias) or where you've taken it down to a very specific set of circumstances (very specific trips). That way, you'll either have information they don't have or possibly have greater skill in a subjective area even if they are hiring someone to make those judgements for them.

I think field strength and class are two of the easiest things to program.