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11-15-2021, 04:11 PM
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#16
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocker
If you close betting at 2 minutes to post, the guys that are betting big bucks at 15 seconds to post will then be betting big bucks at 2 minutes and 15 seconds to post. The odds will still be changing after it is too late for anyone to bet.
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A voice of reason!
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The difference is people will know the pools are locked and nobody is past posting. I don't believe past posting happens often, but we all know it does happen. Therefore, I can't blame those that don't trust an antiquated system is totally secure.
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11-15-2021, 04:12 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The difference is people will know the pools are locked and nobody is past posting. I don't believe past posting happens often, but we all know it does happen. Therefore, I can't blame those that don't trust an antiquated system is totally secure.
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THIS is the "Voice of Reason"...IMO. Of course...I posted the same earlier.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-15-2021, 04:14 PM
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#18
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
THIS is the "Voice of Reason"...IMO. Of course...I posted the same earlier.
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I have my posts set to read latest first, so I read downwards. Sometimes I respond before seeing others have said similar. Sorry about that!
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11-15-2021, 04:14 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I have my posts set to read latest first, so I read downwards. Sometimes I respond before seeing others have said similar. Sorry about that!
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No worries. Great minds think alike.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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11-15-2021, 04:36 PM
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#20
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The difference is people will know the pools are locked and nobody is past posting. I don't believe past posting happens often, but we all know it does happen. Therefore, I can't blame those that don't trust an antiquated system is totally secure.
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I agree 100%.
Been suggesting it for a decade.
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11-15-2021, 06:48 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
The difference is people will know the pools are locked and nobody is past posting. I don't believe past posting happens often, but we all know it does happen. Therefore, I can't blame those that don't trust an antiquated system is totally secure.
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The odds will continue to change after the supposed 2 minute lock up, as they now change after post time. People who don't understand the process will continue to whine that their bet placed at 2-1 just before 2 minutes is now at 8-5 just after 2 minutes.
__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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11-15-2021, 08:07 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocker
The odds will continue to change after the supposed 2 minute lock up, as they now change after post time. People who don't understand the process will continue to whine that their bet placed at 2-1 just before 2 minutes is now at 8-5 just after 2 minutes.
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Different kind of complaining - complaining that too many others had the same idea as you is different than complaining that too many others were able to jump onto your idea AFTER they saw how the horses broke from the gate.
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Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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11-15-2021, 10:24 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 3,886
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Different kind of complaining - complaining that too many others had the same idea as you is different than complaining that too many others were able to jump onto your idea AFTER they saw how the horses broke from the gate.
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Exactly
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11-16-2021, 05:21 PM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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11-16-2021, 06:25 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Different kind of complaining - complaining that too many others had the same idea as you is different than complaining that too many others were able to jump onto your idea AFTER they saw how the horses broke from the gate.
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You can't place a bet after the bell rings and the gate opens. The complaining is about odds changing after the bell rings and the gate opens. The complaining is from people who think that bets after the gate opens can be made and that is what changes the odds.
As shown in the articles I referenced in a previous post in this thread, the post break odds changes are caused by large last second bets made just before the gate opens.
__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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11-16-2021, 06:52 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocker
You can't place a bet after the bell rings and the gate opens.
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You may know that, and I may believe that - but you can make much more of a dent in that type of complaining by removing the appearance of impropriety rather than trying to educate/convince those complaining that there is no impropriety.
At least in times past, there HAS been some impropriety with regard to the closing of wagering.
Mike Maloney related an account that occurred during the simulcast era where his reporting of past posting ability (by creating evidence that it was possible) nearly got HIS license revoked.
I can't remember which handicapping author it was, but I remember reading in one book of a team of players at a certain track which was a few seconds slower in shutting down the machines at the start of a race than they should have been. One player watching the break with binocs, another at the window with sightline to the watcher. They knew which speed horse they liked, the guy at the window told the teller, who keyed the max wager and hovered a finger over the horse number, and if their horse got the good break they wanted, the watcher would raise his fist, the window guy said go, and the teller punched until the machine shut down. That kind of small past posting edge is significant.
Will we ever end the complaining - no. Is there an easy way to reduce some of it, and some of the bad image that results - yes.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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11-17-2021, 12:57 PM
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#27
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocker
The odds will continue to change after the supposed 2 minute lock up, as they now change after post time. People who don't understand the process will continue to whine that their bet placed at 2-1 just before 2 minutes is now at 8-5 just after 2 minutes.
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Obviously I know this. As I said, the difference is we would know there is no past posting. We can't be sure now and in fact there have been several instances in the past few years. Those are the ones we know about.
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11-17-2021, 01:12 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,456
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I do not like the idea stopping betting 2 minutes before post. Some horses behave in a way that changes my final bets. How would a track decide that 2 minutes when loading times are inconsistent and some tracks routinely still have horses in paddock at 0 min to post according to the live feed?
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11-17-2021, 05:03 PM
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#29
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,874
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Obviously I know this. As I said, the difference is we would know there is no past posting. We can't be sure now and in fact there have been several instances in the past few years. Those are the ones we know about.
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Precisely.
It removes past-posting completely unless there is full-blown collusion in the tote system - which leaves clear footprints.
It also protects the PERCEPTION OF NO INTEGRITY by stopping this stuff where the odds drop precipitously just as a horse takes the lead.
Quote:
I do not like the idea stopping betting 2 minutes before post. Some horses behave in a way that changes my final bets. How would a track decide that 2 minutes when loading times are inconsistent and some tracks routinely still have horses in paddock at 0 min to post according to the live feed?
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The question: "Is the trade off worth it?"
Easy for me to say that it is because I don't use that info anyway.
;-)
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 11-17-2021 at 05:04 PM.
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11-17-2021, 05:19 PM
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#30
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
I do not like the idea stopping betting 2 minutes before post. Some horses behave in a way that changes my final bets. How would a track decide that 2 minutes when loading times are inconsistent and some tracks routinely still have horses in paddock at 0 min to post according to the live feed?
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I can see that point of view for sure. Two minutes is probably extreme. Maybe just before the horses load is fine.
But this has already been tried after the Fix 6 scandal and tracks couldn't stomach the alleged handle loss. Of course they didn't give people time to adapt either.
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