 |
|
11-04-2021, 12:56 PM
|
#91
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Most times if a horse isn't in a battle it should be in, it loses anyway.
|
IMO, most the time, if both go, the faster higher quality horse on that day either gets the lead or hounds the cheaper horse and puts him away badly.
Inferior horses don't put away superior horses. When it looks like it just happened, it was because there was a form change. You just don't know that beforehand.
For me, the main question is who is the superior speed horse and how hard is he going to have to use himself to win that battle without losing the war?
Sometimes you know and other times you are not sure.
The second question is are we dealing with a horse that can stalk and still finish and win.
At constant form, I think JC is the superior horse and would put away either Corniche or Pinehurst. But I'm not sure he could do that and win.
For example, JC could have gone all out to get the lead against Gunite, but he was comfortable sitting off him a length and then going to get him when the time was right. An all out duel may have set it up for Command Performance that day. I think he should go tomorrow, but be willing to back off and repeat the Champagne. If he can't stay with Pinehurst/Corniche and put them away late he wasn't going to beat them dueling either. The major risk is probably getting tag teamed.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-04-2021 at 01:04 PM.
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 01:13 PM
|
#92
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
IMO, most the time, if both go, the faster higher quality horse on that day either gets the lead or hounds the cheaper horse and puts him away badly.
Inferior horses don't put away superior horses. When it looks like it just happened, it was because there was a form change. You just don't know that beforehand.
For me, the main question is who is the superior speed horse and how hard is he going to have to use himself to win that battle without losing the war?
Sometimes you know and other times you are not sure.
The second question is are we dealing with a horse that can stalk and still finish and win.
At constant form, I think JC is the superior horse and would put away either Corniche or Pinehurst. But I'm not sure he could do that and win.
For example, JC could have gone all out to get the lead against Gunite, but he was comfortable sitting off him a length and then going to get him when the time was right. An all out duel may have set it up for Command Performance that day. I think he should go tomorrow, but be willing to back off and repeat the Champagne. If he can't stay with Pinehurst/Corniche and put them away late he wasn't going to beat them dueling either. The major risk is probably getting tag teamed.
|
If Baffert controls the pace he will tell them to slow it down as much as they can and pin Jack Christopher in and he may get shuffled. Has to go and then try to switch outside them if he needs to.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 01:17 PM
|
#93
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
|
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 02:48 PM
|
#94
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
If Baffert controls the pace he will tell them to slow it down as much as they can and pin Jack Christopher in and he may get shuffled. Has to go and then try to switch outside them if he needs to.
|
I agree.
Tag teaming JC is a risk, especially since Baffert has 3 horses. We know he's not going to duel himself. He's going to want the better of either Corniche and Pinehurst on the lead and Barossa will probably be in the next flight.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 03:10 PM
|
#95
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,414
|
Juju's Map and Echo Zulu cancel themselves out in the Juvie Fillies. Maybe the fastest horse in the race is Dallas Stewart's Sequist, but she's pretty green. She blew the turn in the Alcibiad almost as bad as Broad Brush in PA Derby years ago. LOL didn't even make into anyone's comments on the race. You heard it here first.... Desert Dawn ran 4 wide in her maiden and won easily at this distance at Del Mar. Her racing style fits Del Mar lots better than Santa Anita. Bret Calhoun's Hidden Connection looks like a nice one. One of those three will take it. I'll likely land on the tastiest of odds and Desert Dawn because I like horses that like Del Mar... Figure out how many of those three land in the exotics closer to race time.
Last edited by bisket; 11-04-2021 at 03:11 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 08:05 PM
|
#96
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I agree.
Tag teaming JC is a risk, especially since Baffert has 3 horses. We know he's not going to duel himself. He's going to want the better of either Corniche and Pinehurst on the lead and Barossa will probably be in the next flight.
|
Looking at the form JC will have no problems. Corniche is an easy toss for me
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 09:41 PM
|
#97
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,216
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Looking at the form JC will have no problems. Corniche is an easy toss for me
|
And now Jack Christopher is apparently out.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
|
|
|
|
|
11-04-2021, 11:04 PM
|
#98
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
|
I don't care how good Jackie's Warrior looks on paper, if you look at Asmussen's barn at major tracks (NY and KY) since October 8, the start of Keeneland, he's 2 for 79. And the two winners paid $3.20 and $6.20.
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 01:22 AM
|
#99
|
|
Son O'War
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bettorthaneverstreet, Boston
Posts: 7,211
|
Jack Christopher is out with Domestic Spending...
both gone
__________________
...as I lied down last night and looked up at the moon and stars, I said to myself, where the hell did my ceiling go
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 01:29 AM
|
#100
|
|
Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG RED
Jack Christopher is out with Domestic Spending...
both gone
|
Well sorry for the team but I needed him in there for pricing.
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 01:52 AM
|
#101
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
Juvy Fillies Turf) Cairo Memories with a win on the surface, should get a good trip, and looks to have some kick and fight to her. Koala Princess stretches out gets Rosario, love the breeding going a mile. Haughty will take some CB money but I think the horse is gonna be really frickin good, could be her coming out party…Chad wouldn’t enter her if he didn’t think she was ready. Lots of Euro’s to choose from in here but the best to me looks to be Mise En Scene. (2,9,11,13)
|
Very similar.
I have the race as:
1T) Cairo Memories / Haughty
3) Bubble Rock
4) Mise En Scene
5) Koala Princess
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 07:35 AM
|
#102
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
|
This Baffert is so friggin lucky it's sickening. Unbelievable
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 08:22 AM
|
#103
|
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
"Jimmy Barnes" 2022 Kentucky Derby
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
|
the new Juvenile Pace projector looks like;
blocking fullback----------------------------------Baffert> 
wire top prospect------------------------------------------------------Baffert> 
track backup hope --------------------------------------Baffert> 
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 09:17 AM
|
#104
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
|
|
|
|
|
|
11-05-2021, 09:19 AM
|
#105
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
Looking at the form JC will have no problems. Corniche is an easy toss for me
|
Well, that was a long discussion that wound up being a waste of time. It may be a better betting race now.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
