Beyer on Dutrow, Wolfson, etc.

[cj]

Originally Posted by BM1947

What exactly do they gain by "cheating" ????

1) Money
2) Clients
3) Money

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by LottaKash

Hey Hoss, I realize that & was just goofin on ya.

But a question....Does Dutrow or any of his compatriots Smile when they Pick Your Pockets ?..........Thieves do, I resent them, and it is amazing how politcally correct we have become, when we say things that lean toward exoneration, "well, he did steal from us, but he IS is good trainer"........Baloney, and so what if they are good trainers, if they are caught then they are criminals and should be discarded from the scene.....Pickpockets go to Jail when caught, but not these guys...It is form of stealing, and it is against the law..

I am a decent handicapper, so it makes me wonder sometimes about how much more money I would have, if not for these guys......I wonder ?

best,

Dude, you are preaching to the choir here. I'd like to see them all clean and if not gone. But, since we've chosen to bet our money on this sport, until they do something about this nonsense, we have to adjust and react.

[classhandicapper]

I don't follow GP figures very closely, but has anyone considerd the possibility that Beyer has the race a lot too fast to begin with. I realize it looks like an especially fast race (especially when compared to the filly sprint later on the card), but this would not be the first time that track maintenance, wind, starting gate placement, teletimer malfunction, a change in track moisture etc... lead to strangely fast/slow final time that didn't fit with the rest of the day.

I just took another quick look at that field and I think a figure of 100 (+/- a little) would certainly be reasonable if that race was analyzed in isolation. It's certainly possible that some of the well beaten horses coming off artificial surfaces didn't hold their form at all and only the top 4 ran their race. A figure of 100 (+/- a little) would not be an unreasonable interpretation of that result and would also NOT provoke the kind of reaction we are getting about this horse or Dutrow.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't follow GP figures very closely, but has anyone considerd the possibility that Beyer has the race a lot too fast to begin with. I realize it looks like an especially fast race (especially when compared to the filly sprint later on the card), but this would not be the first time that track maintenance, wind, starting gate placement, teletimer malfunction, a change in track moisture etc... lead to strangely fast/slow final time that didn't fit with the rest of the day.

I just took another quick look at that field and I think a figure of 100 (+/- a little) would certainly be reasonable if that race was analyzed in isolation. It's certainly possible that some of the well beaten horses coming off artificial surfaces didn't hold their form at all and only the top 4 ran their race. A figure of 100 (+/- a little) would not be an unreasonable interpretation of that result and would also NOT provoke the kind of reaction we are getting about this horse or Dutrow.

Come on, you know I considered it. I've watched the replay, checked the gate, and even looked for signs of increased wind. There is nothing to indicate this race figure isn't accurate. All the races before and after the race in question fall right in line.

If you consider the maturity from earlier races and the fact that synthetic surfaces come back slower than dirt, none of the top four horses, save the winner, had any big jump up in figures.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Come on, you know I considered it. I've watched the replay, checked the gate, and even looked for signs of increased wind. There is nothing to indicate this race figure isn't accurate. All the races before and after the race in question fall right in line.

If you consider the maturity from earlier races and the fact that synthetic surfaces come back slower than dirt, none of the top four horses, save the winner, had any big jump up in figures.

CJ,

I' sure you looked at the day.

I am talking about looking at the race in isolation just for the sake of trying to make sense of it because I'm sure you will agree that figures of 117 and 112 for January 3YOs is quite unusual. We aren't just talking about the Dutrow horse here.

In isolation if you look at the prior Beyer figures of the top 4 horses and assume all the CA and other artificial horses either hated dirt or the ship to Florida (not really an unreasonable assumption), the top 4 fall into line pretty well at a figure of 100 or a little higher.

Kelly Leak has been running peak figures in the low mid 80s on turf/artificial. There was no certainty he would like sprinting on dirt.

Ju Jitsu Jak just ran a peak race of 86, loose on the lead, at 5 1/2 furlongs, against weaker horses, and dueled a superior horse in this race.

I see nothing unreasonable about assuming they both ran a race in the mid 80s again. They finished 7 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Depending on the beaten length chart you use (another issue) that translates into about 15-18 Beyer points and a winning figure of around 100 +/- a little.

A figure in the high 90s would not be out of line for a very fast horse like You Luckie Mann either. He peaked in a 5 1/2 race with a 107 but ran in the mid 90s stalking at 6F last out and dueled at 6F this time out.

The most likely figure for the winner is somewhat arbitrary because we know the horse moved up, but what makes more sense, 99-103 or 117 based on prior efforts?

Even the 5th place finisher, Billionaire Bob who was beaten around 20 lengths in what was not an especially competitive effort had a peak dirt/artifical figure of 66 against non-entities and was 46-1 in this race. A figure of 100 or so for this race would translate into a figure in the upper 50s or low 60s depending on the beaten length chart used. I don't even think that's an unreasonable figure for this horse in a race in which it was totally overmatched and outrun by superior horses.

I understand that your figures are not perfectly in sync with Beyer's, there are pace issues, young horses sometimes improve etc... I also understand your reluctance to arbitrarily lower a figure. But I find 117 and 112 for the top two no more logical than the assumption that a lot of CA based horses and artificial/turf specialists ran a clinker in a tough 3YO dirt sprint in Flordia on the ship.

I don't know what the right figure is. Perhaps 117 is most logical. But I've seen strange races like this in the past that proved to be wrong.

I don't think I'll be playing any of these horses back at short prices based on a 117 Beyer until I see some evidence that this wasn't a fluke final time. If the prices are huge, perhaps I'll reconsider.

But the greater point is "IF" (big if) Beyer and others have this race much too fast because something freaky happened with the track, then a lot this debate is moot.

I would be interested to see how fast TG, RAGs, and some other figure makers made the race and am looking forward to the next starts of some of these horse (hopefully all on dirt at 6F).

[cj]

I'm certainly not advocating betting the top couple back.

This is a post I made elsewhere talking about the top 4:

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.

One other thing, this doesn't even get into the pace aspect. None of the others really improved much at all in my opinion if you consider that part of the equation.

For the record, I gave this race a 106 pace, 117 speed.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Dude, you are preaching to the choir here. I'd like to see them all clean and if not gone. But, since we've chosen to bet our money on this sport, until they do something about this nonsense, we have to adjust and react.

To Dahoss and others, my passion for the Thieves and my $Bottom-Line always gets me going, and to a fault....sorry for preaching, I was venting...

I play the game despite this, as well, but occasionally I do find races, pace-wise, speed wise, and finish wise that make no sense at all, and I do have an open mind on this, still, I always wonder about those certain races, and I guess we all do....My win% is still rewarding but still, those funny races ?

Back in the 60's a very good friend did 5-years for smokin a "J", and these guys keep coming up positive from time to time, and they are still at it.....That bothers me a bit, that's all....

best,

best,

[DrugS]

Originally Posted by BM1947

I guess Im not as smart as all you guys are so I would like 1 ( one ) questioned answered, please. This question is reguarding all the well know trainers ( not the ham & egg guys at beu or sun or any small time track)
the question :

What exactly do they gain by "cheating" ????


remember all these trainers earn in excess of 1 million a yr
all the owners are very wealthy
if they are known "cheaters" in the racing community no one will buy or claim a horse from them


So, please tell me what they gain by cheating


thanking you in advance for all the great answers I will get to enhance my weak knowledge base

Panama Lewis was considered one of the greatest boxing trainers of all-time and was in the prime of his career as a trainer when he got caught loading gloves.

You can fast forward to 3 minutes and 30 seconds in and see how he got caught...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wI1RB6JYgfU

In this case - his fighter was a soft puncher Luis Resto. He defeated an undefeated up and coming prospect named Irish Billy Collins. Panama cut the padding away from Resto's glove and had plaster inserted under his knuckle wrap.

The result was Collins losing his first pro fight - coming out of it looking like this..



Collins had permanentley blurred vision that ended his boxing career. 9 months later he drove his car off of a cliff killing himself in an apperant suicide.

Panama Lewis was only caught because his fighter was stupid enough to shake the hand of Collins father/cornerman with the loaded glove after the fight.

You are confused why a top horse racing trainer would give an animal a performance enhancer that A.) might not even be illegal or B.) might not even be detectable...

Why would the best boxing trainer in the game cheat to such a brazen extreme that it would ruin the lives of other humans?

I hope you were being naive and not sarcastic when asking that. I detected sarcasam.

[Grits]

A photo can often drive a point home. Along with this story, I think you just did so, beautifully.

[karlskorner]

It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.

[TurfRuler]

I have been comparing speed figures with class for several years. It is a part of my handicapping. There are a couple of comparision charts out on the net. In the case of This One for Phil I would have to give him a Grade 1 level with the 117 BSF. This One for Phil would now rank with such notable 2008 American and International thoroughbreds such as Curlin, New Approach, Raven's Pass, Zarkava, Duke of Marmalade, Big Brown, Conduit, Goldikova and Henrythenavigator. We are somewhat familiar with their accomplishments. Maybe, although I have my doubts, This One for Phil is the one and the trainer is one also if he expects us to believe at this time on that track the horse has become a phenom.

[slewis]

Originally Posted by karlskorner

It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.

I know I have posted what I am about to post again, previously.....

I am not blind either....

But someone needs to explain this "little black bag" thing to me.

Dutrow sends two horses to Dubai and wins at a track with not only an absolute zero drug tolerance policy... but without lasix, and while sitting in South Fla. with Big Brown.

Next food for thought: Again a repeat....
I PHYSICALLY look at every horse, virtually every race at ALL 3 NYRA tracks.
(Im not talking about through binoculars, Im talking about getting within 10 feet or so, and I have TLG who will vouch for this because he's recently seen me outside in the frigid NY weather trying to get a close look).

Steve Asmussen's horses come in race after race after race looking sensational, even in winter when trainers struggle to keep horses looking sharp..

Question is .. how does he do this??? (since he is NEVER in NY in the winter).
Does he let his help in on the "black bag"??.

If so, why dont they go out on their own????

Everyone needs to except that these guys are REALLY good with GREAT programs. If their horses are getting "extra" help on occasion, maybe the tracks need to hire labs like in the olympics to catch them.
Until then..... enjoy the racing.

[the little guy]

" Little Black Bag " was a reference that Dutrow himself made.....obviously he was joking around. You need to reread the part from the DRF article.

[sonnyp]

make no mistake, the programs these guys develop are first rate. no expense is spared on feed, bedding, nutritional suppliments etc. which is the basis for a horse "looking good" . im sure it is reflected in their per diems which their owners gladly pay them but would gripe like hell if a lesser trainer tried to operate on that level.

dont sell the help short either. as you stated, these guys cant be everywhere. good backstretch help is at a premium these days. if you're a good groom you most likely would prefer to work for an outfit that offerd a % of the horses earnings, a chance to travel the country and perhaps the world.

the most unhearalded and abused is the second trainer. all the blame, no credit,
low pay. these are the most dedicated. look at the list that came from lukas and michelle nevin seems as though she'd take a bullet for dutrow.

last but not least, the vets. these guys have a relationship with a vet at every track they race at. on the backside the vets have reputations as big as the trainers.

take nothing away from the organizational skills of these guys they are very, very good at what they do...but it still doesn't equate to the level of dominance and the, often, dramatic manner in which it is achieved.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by karlskorner

It appears that the DAILY RACING FORM , GULFSTREAM PARK, JEREMY PLONK, EQUIBASE, BRIS, TRACKMASTER and 5k (more or less) of DRF readers were wrong about the true ownership of This One's for Phil, until corrected by TLG, at least I was in good company.

Still doesn't answer the question is Dutrow a cheater or a good trainer ? I am inclined to beliew his "little black bag" story as posted by TLG.

I wasn't the one who corrected you. But, you knew that.

However, being that you intimated knowledge of the previous owner, and claim to always be in the paddock, it seems surprising that after Saturday you would still have thought the previous owner was the current owner.