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Old 05-01-2007, 04:26 PM   #31
uncbossfan
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I'm really torn on Curlin. He has been very visually impressive, but I am going to hate the price...

One thing I don't like hearing is - he has yet to beat anybody. Well, have you ever considered no other trainers wanted to run against him in the Arkansas Derby? He can only beat the horses that are entered. I'm playing a large tri ticket and will include him in all places, but hope he does not win. No way am I going to let him beat me tho...
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Old 05-01-2007, 04:35 PM   #32
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If Fu Peg had run like 2 days earlier, then that 2 year old jinx thing woudl have been broken. You really think horse racing karma depends on what day of the week FuPeg raced in Dec 1999??

Curlin's style actually does not work for him. stalkers dont win anywhere near as well as closers, and not quite as well as presser/front runners if you combine those. That said, stalkers seem to have done very well the last 5 or 6 years or so...

CUrlin does not remind me of Lawyer Ron because that horse never relaxed at all. One of those OP races he was climbing and just rarin to go. You dont see that with Curlin.

One trend that is more scarier than 2 year old jinx, or the 3 prep jinx is that favorites have not done well as a rule here. I dont know what the winning% for Ky Derby favs. is but I'm thinking it is less than 33%. That trend seems more of a real threat.

Nice comparison to Tapit.
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Old 05-01-2007, 04:47 PM   #33
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Looks like the Derby fav has won 50 of the 132 runnings or almost 38%, but only 2 of those have been since '79...

So for the last 26 runnings, the fav is winning at a 7% clip, and the 106 yrs before that, it was at 45%

Why do you think the sudden change occured?? Was there any new introductions to the handicapping world around that time that has swayed bettors opinions? More horses capable of winning, or shoudl I say less horses capable of pulling off the Derby as much as they are babied sometimes... curiosu to your thoughts.

Last edited by uncbossfan; 05-01-2007 at 04:53 PM.
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Old 05-01-2007, 05:19 PM   #34
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Don't Agree here

Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
INEXPERIENCE is a big one.......

Tapit had the same problem as did many others over the years. Exceptions: Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro but even these two had more chances it get bumped and fight back than the "possible" superstar here.

This one has done everything asked of him, BUT imagine the noise the pace pressure (which is alway nuts on that day and in that race). I would be concerned.
Curlin has handled every race with professionalism. If you have kept up with this field of horses, it's not true of most. Anything from cotton in their ears, to blinkers, to shadow rolls and being able to correct their drifting or shyness down the stretch.

Let's also remember, Domincan was scheduled to run in the $1M Arkansas Derby( as a 2nd or 3rd favorite), but pulled out only days before, to engage a supposed, (tougher?) group of competitors in the $750k Blue Grass? (as a long shot) Obviously, Darin Miller was correct in placing Dominican in the Blue Grass. In hindsight it seems it may have been called ducking Curlin. On a straight up bet, I wager Curlin places better than Dominican in the Ky Derby. (JMHO)

Last edited by Bruddah; 05-01-2007 at 05:22 PM.
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Old 05-01-2007, 05:58 PM   #35
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My guess is

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncbossfan
Looks like the Derby fav has won 50 of the 132 runnings or almost 38%, but only 2 of those have been since '79...

So for the last 26 runnings, the fav is winning at a 7% clip, and the 106 yrs before that, it was at 45%

Why do you think the sudden change occured?? Was there any new introductions to the handicapping world around that time that has swayed bettors opinions? More horses capable of winning, or shoudl I say less horses capable of pulling off the Derby as much as they are babied sometimes... curiosu to your thoughts.
The size of the Derby field increased to 20 participants, since 1979. Makes it a much more difficult assignment, for the favorite. Also, the best horse doesn't always win i.e Afleet Alex. (JMHO)

Last edited by Bruddah; 05-01-2007 at 05:59 PM.
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Old 05-01-2007, 06:04 PM   #36
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Tapit

Tapit is a terrible comparison. That Derby was set up for front runners, especially good ones like Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, not for closers, as tons of much was kicked up in Tapit's face (and he still go to like 8th although he broke nearly dead last).

Be fair.
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Old 05-01-2007, 06:37 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
Tapit is a terrible comparison. That Derby was set up for front runners, especially good ones like Smarty Jones and Lion Heart, not for closers, as tons of much was kicked up in Tapit's face (and he still go to like 8th although he broke nearly dead last).
Comment was made on a single factor, nothing else, that is why I put in caps: INEXPERIENCE, subtantiated by 50 plus years of the same factor in this race...

Last edited by 46zilzal; 05-01-2007 at 06:46 PM.
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Old 05-01-2007, 06:53 PM   #38
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Quote from The Thoroughbred Times: "A juvenile campaign is virtually a prerequisite for winning the Kentucky Derby. Only ONE colt, Apollo, has won the Derby without racing as a two year old, and he accomplished that feat in 1882, in the eigth running.
In recent years, ONLY THREE have won after making only one start as a two year old. Tim Tam won in 1958 after finishing unplaced in his only start at two. Also unplaced at two was Lucky Debonair, who won he 1965 Derby. Fusiaichi Pegasus finished second in his only start at two and won the 2000 edition as the 2.3/1 favorite."

History says it is a risky wager no matter how much this one fits the pattern.

Last edited by 46zilzal; 05-01-2007 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 05-01-2007, 07:15 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DirtTrack
Is a lot like Smarty but seems to have more down the stretch
I’m going to evaluate Curlin like I evaluate any gamble. For the record after his GP MSW win I wrote in my notes “Gr-1 ability”. I also made a mental note that if they try to compress a 90+ day run for the roses into him it will be a major challenge. I would believe this if 10 Derby winners had never raced at two…

I can’t let this one statement pass in good conscious. Curlin is a very talented horse, but at the same age he couldn’t hold Smarty’s bed pan IMO. Smarty Jones Rebel stakes was SO much faster than the majority of figure services reported it. The Beyer was off by a good 10%. Unlike many “hyped” horses, Smarty was actually underrated IMO.
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Old 05-01-2007, 07:15 PM   #40
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Last year it was Barbaro who was mistrained, hadn't had enuf experience,
best races on turf and was way too rested coming into the Yum Yum Derby.

Result: He kicked ass by the biggest margin in 20+ years.

Either you know somethiing about this game or you don't. If you have any idea about how a good race horse looks and runs then you won't be here pissing on Curlin. All he has done is gone from a green race horse with tons of raw talent into a badass race horse with tons of raw talent. If you saw his debut and then saw his last race and aren't impressed with his maturity then you should go bet on the bicycle races. He may not win because a lot in the Derby depends on the draw and racing luck, but to just summarily dismiss him is somewhere between stupid and dumb.
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Old 05-01-2007, 08:03 PM   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rrbauer
L All he has done is gone from a green race horse with tons of raw talent into a badass race horse with tons of raw talent. If you saw his debut and then saw his last race and aren't impressed with his maturity then you should go bet on the bicycle races. He may not win because a lot in the Derby depends on the draw and racing luck, but to just summarily dismiss him is somewhere between stupid and dumb.
operative work highlighted.

History is a powerful thing. Why have many a RAW talented colt missed out? It takes seasoning to compete the first Saturday in May. NUMERICALLY, energy distribution wise, this one is in the hunt, but history is thowing a read flag up.
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Old 05-01-2007, 08:28 PM   #42
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are not....

ALL the animals in here 'up against it'
Historically, none of them ever has run 1 1-4 here and now...

Speed rules. Any horse w competitive speed is a contender, the distance
is always the wild card. There are so many of these beasts that wont
carry that speed. And the speed in the Ky Dby is ALWAYS greater than any other race. Curlin is an excellent speed horse but I dont believe he will just
draw off like in his prep races, it will be much more contested, with extra distance and traffic. Anyone else view it like this? Im not a big fan of 'historical
profiling' which is what I am seeing in a lot of these discussion groups---

I just look for hard prep races where the runners finish fast and close up and look like they want to keep running.....rather than runaway victories or high speed ratings.
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Old 05-01-2007, 08:34 PM   #43
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Exactly. For those of you adept at energy distribution, all colts since Charismatic have shown that their last three preps have to have a % median in the range 67.3 to 67.8 or they don't get the blanket of roses.
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Old 05-01-2007, 08:52 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
INEXPERIENCE is a big one.......

Tapit had the same problem as did many others over the years. Exceptions: Fusaichi Pegasus, Barbaro but even these two had more chances it get bumped and fight back than the "possible" superstar here.

This one has done everything asked of him, BUT imagine the noise the pace pressure (which is alway nuts on that day and in that race). I would be concerned.

first of all, the "curlin hasn't beat anyone" arguement is the stupidist arugement of all time...

Based off what? a media hyped 2 year old campaign?

but let's use that argument for a second.. lets judged what he has done. he ran Tefulesburg into the ground in his second career start.

Then he came back and lost by a nose to Dominican and Street Sense in the Bluegrass.

So by using that comparison, Curlin is about 7 lenghts better than anyone in the Bluegrass (which I don't think) but it goes to show the validty of the arguement.

He TROUNCED Flying First Class, who has came back and ROUMPED in the derby trail.


he Beat a Grade 2 winner in Xchanger

Is he up against it? yes and no. Talent wise, he has the talent to win it, no one will argue otherwise. what people will argue is what has he faced, etc. you can literarly aruge that for all the horses. I can make a valid arguement why at least half the horses in the field should/could win.


with that said, I am huge on scat daddy and he will get a win ticket from me. the only horse I think that has it in him to beat Curlin.

all i know is Curlin own a race by 10 and a half lenghs and could have won by more, he won for fun. And unlike Bellamy Road it wasn't a pace breakdown.
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Old 05-01-2007, 08:54 PM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanG
I’m going to evaluate Curlin like I evaluate any gamble. For the record after his GP MSW win I wrote in my notes “Gr-1 ability”. I also made a mental note that if they try to compress a 90+ day run for the roses into him it will be a major challenge. I would believe this if 10 Derby winners had never raced at two…

I can’t let this one statement pass in good conscious. Curlin is a very talented horse, but at the same age he couldn’t hold Smarty’s bed pan IMO. Smarty Jones Rebel stakes was SO much faster than the majority of figure services reported it. The Beyer was off by a good 10%. Unlike many “hyped” horses, Smarty was actually underrated IMO.

that's not a very valid argument either becuase to make that assumption, you have to assume that Curlin exerted all the effort he possibly could have to come with that Beyer speed figure, which e didn't. The truth is, no one knows what curlin is capable of... Yes, given the race I saw, it was about a second and a half slower then Smarty Jones.. but smarty Jones is a horse that likes the lead and Curlin is a stalking type of horse. you handicap on ability not numbers
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