Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-19-2018, 08:34 PM   #31
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
That was a hell of a ride by Kent D. on My Boy Jack.
yup, kent is one of the best at knowing what is going on with the track and that was a monster inside bias. I watched all the races and the parade of longshots who outran their odds or won is pretty much a no debate to me on that track.

the four horses who spent the majority of time on the inside in the Southwest were the 1-10-4-2...

I guess with that in mind Zing Zang, who I bet ran better than I thought initially.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-21-2018, 07:18 AM   #32
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
2/17/18 Risen Star Stakes, 8.5F, Fairgrounds

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180217&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-110 1/2-109 3/4-106 Final Fig-118

Analysis - Bronzino - These are the very horses that make betting on the Triple Crown preps so difficult, lightly race well bred from good barns coming off easy lower level wins. Pace was average to slightly slow at the quarter pole. Now I would give this colt some credit because they did fly home going from 106-118, and the early fractions were not slow so my feeling was this should be regarded as a good starting point and this colt may have a future. That being said, perfect 2w trip able to sit with the place horse all the way around the track. In fact look at the entire, ever see a merry go round race for all 9 horses? This race has me skeptical in terms of using it for future handicapping.

Snapper Sinclair: 41-1 horse should never have been those odds coming of a legit effort in the Le Comte as we reviewed. His analysis is the same as Bronzino, except he now has done it twice. I would not be shocked on the stretch out if he is lone speed he can run very well again. This horse seems like a player in this years trail to me.

Noble Indy: Ran ok I suppose but I would have like to see a little more down the stretch given the trip. He is still likely to be overbet in his next race as he was in this one.

Instilled Regard: Bit of a flat effort. My feeling is Hollendorfer may not have cranked him up in this race and his rider may have been a little over confident that he could take the top two, when they quickened, and they did, it was a little to late. I feel like this horse will be better with a mid pack more honest pace. I still view him as a strong contender at this point.

Race Replay

Attached Images
File Type: png RisenStar.png (70.5 KB, 6 views)

Last edited by cj; 02-21-2018 at 09:11 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-21-2018, 07:34 AM   #33
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
2/19/18 Southwest Stakes, 8.5F, Oaklawn

DRF Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180219&RN=9

Timeform Figures 1/4-144 1/2-134 3/4-115 Final Fig-118 muddy(sealed)

Analysis - My Boy Jack: Any discussion about this race has to start with the track. I reviewed all 10 races on the card and it pretty obvious this is a extreme inside bias track. Race after race horse who hugged the rail during the race, and especially down the lane made up ground or had more energy that outside horses. While none of the fractions were red as timing wise the race did not fall apart it sure favored horses from off the pace. My Boy Jack saved all the ground, rallied up the rail, in a race that strongly favored closers. Do you want to bet this horse next time? Me neither. Marginal contender at this point and only franks the form of McKinzie.

Combatant: What a great ride by Santana. Somehow got to the rail on the first turn, stayed there till he had to tip out and could not match the winner who was able to stay on the rail. Still though, in a race with a ton of speed horses and fast pace to boot and good rail he should have finished a bit better. Given the mud I am going to view him as a marginal contender and in his next race depending on the odds may play him. There still could be a forward move for him.

Sporting Chance: I suppose this was a good starting spot, but he did stay on the inside. Given the fast fractions I can view as a decent effort and play him in the right spot. He feels like he will be overbet off this, guess will have to judge on the field he faces.

Mourhino: The horse we were against off his last prep. He didnt run bad given the pace but also was inside the whole way, and I dont think this field had any killers in it. At this point feels like a real longshot derby contender.

Zing Zang - I am just pointing out that he was outside the whole way, as a Derby contender he should have finished better but in a easier spot I see him as a possible play.

Race Replay (6 min mark)

Attached Images
File Type: png southwest.png (73.0 KB, 9 views)

Last edited by cj; 02-21-2018 at 09:16 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-06-2018, 02:21 PM   #34
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
3/3/18 Fountain of Youth Stakes, 8.5F, Gulfstream Park

Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20180303&RN=14

Timeform Figures 1/4-114 1/2-114 3/4-120 Final Fig-121

Analysis – Promises Fulfilled: In these reviews I have been analyzing performances rather than post race handicapping. But to review the effort I think its fair for me to look at what I thought about the horse going in. My notes said “could be talented, this is likely a prep, likely to get hung wide on fast pace”. Well I was right about being talented at least. He made a relatively easy lead, for whatever reasons was not pressured, and won nicely going off at 18/1. When I play these 3yo preps this is exactly the type of horse I take a shot with (I bet the 5 who had similar characteristics). I think the KJC race was useful, with talented horses and this guy was right there with them. With a uncontested lead he set a solid pace (114-114) and finished strong (120-121). This is a solid profile for a talented colt who did not walk on the lead, and was not life and death to hold. I will view him favorably next out, but also would be skeptical if he is overbet since it was such a clear and uncontested lead.

Strike Power: Felt a bit distance limited coming into the race, feels like it coming out of it. He should have been able to engage the winner better at the quarter pole. Clearly a talented colt, and lightly raced, but just feels like he will not like more distance moving forward. This was a good effort, and I suppose if he gets lost in the wagering where he can clear he would be a useful play back but in terms of Derby hopeful it feels like a reach.

Good Magic: In a world where ever good horse is expected to always win or run superior races this horse is yesterdays news. In an alternative world where derby preps off layoffs are just that, preps, I don’t think he ran poorly. He was in a good spot but just a bit flat. Like stated above the winner went on with it going from 114-120-121. If that winner had tired just a bit, or maybe this horse was in peak condition, then he may have run on by and we would be talking about him as a very very serious triple crown threat. I will likely bet him next out at anything close to 3/1.

Machismo: Why did they rate him like that? He ran a solid race, wonder if he can find an easier spot and would be playable at a reasonable price.

Marconi- Money burner as called in his prep last month

Race Replay


Last edited by cj; 03-07-2018 at 11:07 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-14-2018, 09:27 AM   #35
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
03/10/18 Sam Felipe Stakes, 8.5F, Santa Anita Park

Chart - http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20180310&RN=6

Timeform Figures 1/4-129 1/2-129 3/4-123 Final Fig-124

Starting to see some separation again from the California dirt horses. While they dont have strong turfers out west they are superior on dirt. As a group they have consistently been running better races (at home and shipping), we will see how it plays out in a month or so.

Analysis – Mckinzie (DQ) The top ranked 3yo on many boards did not disappoint with that running line, everything about those TUS figures suggest this is a serious horse with tons of talent. This was known, just more confirmation. I liked the fact the other horse took the lead, BDO bumped him off stride, and he said ...nope aint having it and won the race anyways. He also was between two horses the entire race on a very strong pace and easily went on with it, super impressive run.

Bold D'Oro: I am not sure a horse can really run a better comeback and lose that this horse, he surely would have finished first in just about any other race and got the money by the DQ. I did think he got a sweet trip on the rail behind 3 horses dueling for the lead. This is a quality horse, there was some silly talk he was overbilled after the juvenile, where you could not have a worse trip than he did. Trainer says he was 80%, last time he said that he aired by open lengths next race, I suspect he does that next time as I bet Baffert has no intention on a rematch before the big race. Looks like a route horse the way he moves as well. If not the fav for the Derby, he is dang close to it.

Kathanka: Nice horse, not a route horse.

Rest of this field needs to fins softer spots. There were no trips or anything to note.

Race Replay


Last edited by cj; 03-14-2018 at 11:08 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-14-2018, 09:40 AM   #36
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
03/10/18 Tampa Bay Derby, 8.5F, Tampa Bay Downs

Chart - http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...8&cy=USA&rn=11

Timeform Figures 1/4-114 1/2-105 3/4-110 Final Fig-118

Some of these derby preps can be a little frustrating because they way they are run you dont get a good gage on the talent, that pace line produces what we saw in this race, a merry go round where front runners were heavily advantaged.

Analysis – Quip: Stalked slow pace outside of distance challenged horse, took over and just held in a decent final time. Can this horse run? I really dont know, I hope he shows in a spot to play against him off that trip and paceline but he likely shows up against the big horses next month and is 10/1 anyways. Nice run from off the bench but need to see a real effort off a tough setup for me to think he is a real contender.

Flameaway: Was never too far off it and one could say the pace hurt him from getting a win. Talent wise shouldnt a derby horse have at least engaged the winner rather than just passing a tired horse for second. Two races in a row this horse is all dressed up, must be bet against next race and maybe when he takes some money after the Derby.

World of Trouble: Nice horse, not a route horse. (ha ha copied that) but its true. Bred to be a sprinter, is a sprinter.

Vino Rosso: So may like him based on the pace but this horse, two races in a row absolutely gets left at the turn. He either needs to figure it out or is not that good, either way looks like a horse that should get off the Derby trail at this point.

Race Replay (Tampa race starts at 23:00) mark


Last edited by cj; 03-14-2018 at 11:28 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-14-2018, 09:53 AM   #37
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
03/10/18 Gotham Stakes, 8.0F, Aqueduct

Chart - http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...8&cy=USA&rn=10

Timeform Figures 1/4-132 1/2-124 3/4-124 Final Fig-116

This was a one turn mile sprint, think its gonna fool some people.

Analysis – Enticed: This horse has always had talent, his win in the Jockey Club, a very productful race, showed that. I think he will be best from 7F to 8.5F. This one turn mile really suited his grinding style. The race started to collapse a bit in my mind and his talent was right there to capitalize, full disclosure I did bet this horse in this race. I think though he is a major underlay in his next two turn race, the Wood. I suspect Baffert ships in with McKinzie or Justify for that race and he is likely to get drowned. I dont view him a serious contender at this point. Good race though, talented colt.

Old Time Revival: Ran the best race. Not even close. Cut out real fractions to only tire late. I think he may be best suited around two turns as well when he can control the pace even more. I am not sure he is the quality to win the Derby but in the summer cash grab races this is a horse to play back in the right spots, no fluke runner up here.

Free Drop Billy: almost inexplicable. Was in the perfect spot and did not fire. One could view that as it happening two races in a row, he was right there with Audible in the last race and got dusted. Maybe this is too far? Not sure as he has talent. Has not run a Derby competitive race this year.

Firenze Fire: just going to say he probably is distance limited but he did have a bit of a trip in here having to steady off heals into the turn. Thats not going to be excuse enough to bet in say the Wood but if he gets the right spot next out I feel it was a legit excuse.

Race Replay


Last edited by cj; 03-14-2018 at 11:09 AM.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-14-2018, 09:55 AM   #38
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 3,069
Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
Ranking the best preps as of 3/14/18

1. San Felipe
2. Le Comte
3. Sham
4. Holy Bull
5. Fountain of Youth
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
To Compete with Sports Betting must lower takeout/breakage on higher churn wagers?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.