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Old 03-04-2018, 01:29 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
The answer is, very little is being matched on those Sunland races. If you could get $10 down on those "overlays" it would be a lot. By the time you could get more money down, the odds have normalized much closer to the toteboard.

Sorry, I see these pro-Betfair posts all the time and it gets old. It has its good side but there's little liquidity in the pools.
I will post the first at Tampa today, the volume, the odds and the amount thatís out there to be matched

And yes I am pro betfair, it sure beats betting 100 dollars on a 11-1 and getting the final odds of 4-1.

Allan
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Old 03-04-2018, 01:50 PM   #137
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Originally Posted by DeltaLover View Post
......
Most likely, the game has reached to the point where it is impossible to extract any value from the pools in any kind of a systematic fashion. My impression is that the relative small size of the betting pools combined with the increased sophistication of the large bettors, the betting tools and the special rebate deals they enjoy, has converted the game to some type of a roulette with a 20%+ takeout.

That's why anyone with a clue has been lobbying for a MUCH lower takeout for decades.


That said, I think the odds change issue is overstated. They are wrong plenty. We should start a thread for posting winners that go UP, and hammered prices that lose.

It would be a very long thread after a while, PA might have to buy more storage.
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Old 03-04-2018, 01:55 PM   #138
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Originally Posted by camourous View Post
You know zero minutes to post means nothing anymore to most tracks, at Gulfstream when it says zero you have about 10 minutes to actual post
Is one reason to capture additional wagers from bettors who lost money on races which were run around the Gulfstream scheduled post,delay the start until the chasers have a chance to try and recoup their losses,and send the Gulf horses away in a bubble from any serious opposing tracks competition.
It's very annoying though watching horses parade around just to build pools,does this really work anyway.
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Old 03-04-2018, 01:59 PM   #139
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Last year I posted 500+ races while using a value line and made 4%

Currently, I've posted 225 top choice picks in the VIP section (starting 2/24) NOT using any sort of odds line and not caring what the odds are...I've hit 36% winners and my ROI is 1.10 currently. My highest price winner was $23.

Not saying it's going to continue...who knows...I think it will based on my research...but we'll see...

Late odds drops suck, and takeout could be lower, but that doesn't mean you still can't win.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 03-04-2018 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 03-04-2018, 02:09 PM   #140
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How much volume is being matched in NJ and what tracks are they showing?

The odds do not mean much if you can not match decent sized bets at those points.
Here is the first tampa today

Tote odds

1-11
2-13
3-5
4-5
5-3
6-8
7-9/2
9-3

Exchange odds and amount to be matched

1. 21-5
2. 33-12
3. 7-29
4. 4-326
5. 4-120
6. 7-12
7. 5-70
9. 9/2-100

Allan
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Old 03-04-2018, 02:57 PM   #141
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Thumbs up Late Money

New to site but... Example I see all the time.Race #9 Santa Anita on Feb. 25. I play the #5 horse Traveza loading at 7-1.He goes right to the lead and wins for fun.I bet $100 thinking great $17.00 horse.Uh...as usual pays $9.00.Naturally,someone says : Wow there must of been some ( LATE MONEY ) come in.Amazing how the ( LATE MONEY ) runs at about 99.9 win.Not many winners hit the front and odds go up.
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Old 03-04-2018, 03:06 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Deepcloser1 View Post
New to site but... Example I see all the time.Race #9 Santa Anita on Feb. 25. I play the #5 horse Traveza loading at 7-1.He goes right to the lead and wins for fun.I bet $100 thinking great $17.00 horse.Uh...as usual pays $9.00.Naturally,someone says : Wow there must of been some ( LATE MONEY ) come in.Amazing how the ( LATE MONEY ) runs at about 99.9 win.Not many winners hit the front and odds go up.
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:13 PM   #143
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Same ole, same ole....

I remember hearing complaints about this 25 years ago.
Happened around the time that simulcasting was expanding,
and off-track handle was becoming more significant.

Nothing ever changes, and yet there are solutions.
The one I like best is once the clock hits zero minutes
to post, and horses begin loading in the gate, all
windows are closed at the track, and mutuels are
locked out away from it. Easy fix - bettors adapt.

The conspiracy theorists who claim that every race
gets bet into until at least the quarter pole will
never be completely satisfied, but it would be a
step in the right direction, at least.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:17 PM   #144
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I like when the odds go down after they pass the finish line and the horses are coming back to be unsaddled.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:17 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.
Agree with a confirming study and actually I am thinking of doing so.

More than this and while I applause yout scepticism I have to same that the same reaction is not the usual reaction (at least not here in PA) when people are making claims about whales, positive ROIs etc.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:23 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
Until we see a confirmed study of such things, I chalk this up to selective anecdotal experience.

Of course you're going to remember the ones that screwed you the most and think it happens all the time and only to winning horses. It's human nature.
I think the fact it does happen, and the why (outdated Tote systems) were outlined in Betting with an Edge by Mike Maloney.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:24 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
Here is the first tampa today

Tote odds

1-11
2-13
3-5
4-5
5-3
6-8
7-9/2
9-3

Exchange odds and amount to be matched

1. 21-5
2. 33-12
3. 7-29
4. 4-326
5. 4-120
6. 7-12
7. 5-70
9. 9/2-100

Allan
Horsemen and their unions are very tough to convince to make changes, usually unless they get forced to by the powers that be they dont change.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:29 PM   #148
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Well, the odds on my video machine never change after I push the button.

A lot of people see this and think the door to the racing side is the one to the garbage shed.

Most are correct.

Tracks should fire the guys running them now and hire the guts running the casino side.
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Old 03-04-2018, 04:30 PM   #149
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Horsemen and their unions are very tough to convince to make changes, usually unless they get forced to by the powers that be they dont change.
Racing has no clue who the customer is.
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Old 03-04-2018, 06:07 PM   #150
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Seems like another reason why I play horizontal wagers.
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