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Old 12-31-2017, 06:29 PM   #106
thespaah
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.
You forget one important aspect. Both businesses Airline and racing charge fees that guarantee some return.
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:34 PM   #107
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#4 at gg race 6 must of had a bet he quit wipping and pulled on reins

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Old 12-31-2017, 06:35 PM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
thespaah:

To understand why rebates are the way they are, take a look at airlines. Airlines do a great job of selling the same flight to a leisure traveler for $150 and a business traveler for $650. You make maximum profits this way, and airlines, like racetracks, are a low margin business.

Rebates allow racetracks the ability to charge bettors who care about takeout less without doing general takeout reductions.

By the way, all businesses do a certain amount of this. For instance, supermarket coupons are a form of this- if you care about saving money, you clip the coupons. There is nothing disreputable about it.
Are there any tracks that give rebates or is it just the ADW's? I know there are track owned ADW's.

Personally I think that anyone that plays the horses regularly should play where getting a rebate if possible. Now even the small players can get a rebate.
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Old 12-31-2017, 08:27 PM   #109
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Today at Gulfstream:


Win Pool At Post Final Last Dump % of total win pool

Race #7: $168,000 $270,000 $102,000 .37

Race #8: $167,000 $197,000 $ 30,000 .15

Race #10: $124,000 $197,000 $ 73,000 .37

Race #11: $189,000 $261,000 $ 72,000 .28

So when making a bet when the horses were loading, you only knew on a average what the odds were for .75 percent of the total win pool.

Only for four races but it shows how much of the pool is coming in late.
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Old 12-31-2017, 08:43 PM   #110
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But two minutes after you two make that bet, it drops from 90% to 60%!
Thatís great
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Old 12-31-2017, 09:03 PM   #111
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Originally Posted by dollarsuperfinder View Post
Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.
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Old 12-31-2017, 09:15 PM   #112
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Yes indeed. In deep stretch after glancing around. I was watching in real time and it looked terrible.
I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:21 PM   #113
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Better talk to Paul Newman and Robert Redford......I said place it on the 2...all of it, place it?? ha ha ha.....some of the toteboards and the old tracks combined with different IP providers across North America and money coming in with simulcast betting, the money just takes longer to get into the bank accounts. Its not a conspiracy....
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:46 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by thespaah View Post
"If it was all whales, online bet shops like tvg and xpressbet wouldn't be successful, because whales go to rebate shops."
That is precisely my point..
Now let us suppose for a moment that all of the host tracks decided to add a fee that would make the rebates a wash. Did not NYRA do this? Add some kind of fee that made the rebates a lot less lucrative?
Just what would happen to handle? The whales and other larger volume bettors would eventually find other wagering opportunities. Handle would do what?
Increase? Decrease? Stay flat?
I believe overall handle would decrease at an alarmingly high percentage.
If the opposite were true, then why would the ADW's offer rebates in the first place? If the whales are not driving the bulk of the handle, why offer them a perk?
Notwithstanding the learned OP's input, no matter what he claims oto know, Unless someone can prove it, I think he's wrong.
Look, as a business owner, why would I offer a perk to anyone that contributes no more or no less to my bottom line?
I wouldn't.
Lets just say I sell turf irrigation equipment.
I have one large customer. That business is say a golf course. They are 25% of my revenue. The other 75% are small regular customers.
One day the golf course general manager shows up in my office. He asks me for a 5% discount off everything he buys.
Now, Do I say "no", negotiate the asking price downward, or do I cave and give him what he wants?
In my world, I tell him, let me sit on it.
After looking at the marketplace, I am one of two irrigation supply houses in the area. Otherwise, he must buy on line. The other company, 50 miles away, isn't going to drop his prices to anyone.
Can I do without the golf course? It would be tough, but i could have my accountant take care of it and I can market my company. Would the GM of that golf club take his business elsewhere? Maybe. Not probable..
I tell him there will be no discount on your first dollar. Spend X dollars and I will consider doing something.

It's all because of how it all got started. I don't know exactly which people were the initial culprits, but they were totally clueless. They made bad deals with tracks carrying their signal, then bad deals with ADWs, and then finally they had to compete with offshores for the whales so gave them what they needed to win that battle.

Now they're in a predicament that can't be fixed quickly unless they do like California and get a law passed that puts a cap on it. They're gradually making the rates more where they should be, but heaven only knows when it'd ever get where it should, probably only after racing has died.
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Old 01-02-2018, 10:27 AM   #115
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I saw it live and watch the head on replay just now to see if maybe the 8 came out a little or the horse took a wrong step. No reason I could see for the pull up. Strange.
was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the . I think he'd seen the adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the
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Old 01-02-2018, 11:33 AM   #116
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Originally Posted by ultracapper View Post
was bearing in and jock was pulling him out to straighten him. I think the jock of the reacted late to the last of those adjustments by the . I think he'd seen the adjust towards him a couple times down the stretch, and the final time I think he reacted as if the was going to continue out even further while adjusting, even though by now had already straightened and was coming out no further. Looks funky, but I think it was just slow reaction and maybe a bit of bad judgement by the rider of the
Read your post and watched the replay again. The last time the started to drift in the jock on the seemed to start paying more attention to his mount. Then when the jockey on the saw the again, it was farther out than he expected and there was a delayed reaction on his part. Still looked very strange.
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Old 01-03-2018, 06:42 AM   #117
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Tony you said Churchill made a valiant effort to stop wagering at post time but went back to their old ways when betters compained? This strongly implies that they allow betting after the gates have opened. Barring any malfuntion, this does not happen.

I certainly didn't mean to imply that CD permits betting after a race begins. Just that updating of odds would continue after a race began.

Tony

Last edited by cj; 01-03-2018 at 08:52 AM.
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Old 01-03-2018, 03:51 PM   #118
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We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings
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Old 01-03-2018, 04:42 PM   #119
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It would help with the wild swings but it would be a detriment to the game. Guys that are betting 200-500 on a win bet are waiting to the last second to make that bet. I honestly think the issue is more with technology and these programs that high volume guys have hitting pools late.
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Old 01-04-2018, 01:47 PM   #120
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Originally Posted by davew View Post
We need to limit bet size near post time - that's the ticket

the numbers could be adjusted up or down depending on quality of track and/or race like the Kentucky Derby could be 100 times higher

5 minutes nothing over $10K
4 minutes nothing over $5K
3 minutes nothing over $2K
2 minutes nothing over $1k
1 minutes nothing over $200
0 minutes nothing over $20
loading gate nothing over $5


that would help wild swings
Most of the whales are sending large batches made up of hundreds/thousands of small wagers. They're not sending a single $10,000 win bet. So this wouldn't do anything to stop their money from coming in at the last second.

Stopping all wagering at 0 mtp would stop the odds from shifting during the race, but there's still always going to be a shift after betting stops. I don't see how you can get around that, it's literally just physics. But at least the public's perception will be better if it's not happening while the horses are actually running.
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