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Old 12-31-2017, 06:11 PM   #1
RunForTheRoses
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SA Race 4 12/31

absolutely pounded at the last minute. Which one of you was it?
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:42 PM   #2
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A few things...


It was a terrible morning line. The points added up way to high. Just adjusting for the overage knocked the winner down to below 3-1.

Using the daily double probables with the top three choices from the prior race projected odds of 1.2, 0.5, and 0.6.

The P3 will pay projected odds of 1.2.

If you average those four, you get about 0.9. The info was there, this horse was always going to take a lot of money. This was discussed somewhere, I guess the late odds changes thread. It generally works and is better than just hoping your odds won't drop.
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Old 12-31-2017, 06:47 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
A few things...


It was a terrible morning line. The points added up way to high. Just adjusting for the overage knocked the winner down to below 3-1.

Using the daily double probables with the top three choices from the prior race projected odds of 1.2, 0.5, and 0.6.

The P3 will pay projected odds of 1.2.

If you average those four, you get about 0.9. The info was there, this horse was always going to take a lot of money. This was discussed somewhere, I guess the late odds changes thread. It generally works and is better than just hoping your odds won't drop.
It was a terrible morning line

Thats all you really have to read from your post. But it was fairly dramatic for a "big" track like Anita. Not complaining, I did have the P5.
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:01 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses View Post
It was a terrible morning line

Thats all you really have to read from your post. But it was fairly dramatic for a "big" track like Anita. Not complaining, I did have the P5.
Yeah, the guy there does a bad job, always adds up way too high.
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Old 01-08-2018, 07:12 PM   #5
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He wants to make it seem like horses are overlays--ie., sets a horse at 3-1 and when you get 9/2 you are jumping for joy. Only problem is he assumes like a 35% takeout in every race. More bs from Santa Anita.
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