early derby futures

[Bennie]

just got back home with my pool #1 wagers in hand. Took a shot with the field boxed with Bolt and Montauk and a sire box of Medaglia,Street Sense and Tapit. That gives me Avery, Bolt, Enticed, Mask, McKinzie, Montauk and Principe with any other that makes makes the field by Derby Day. Put them away and forget about them till May. Will wait till closing bell Sunday to see if the prices are right for a straight bet on Bolt or Montauk, if not I will sit on what I have.

[jocko699]

Made a win bet on Tiz Mischief at 50-1 after his race at CD.

[Bennie]

Jocko - you are in it with Fred Mertz. He played Dale Roman's horses. Still looking for his first Derby win but this could be the year. Still have an eye out for Free Drop Billy to see if he can rebound from that poor race at the Breeders. Will wait for his next race and future pools before making a final decision on him. Good luck with Tiz Mischief. I did bet him in the race today.

[olddaddy]

Everytime i see derby futures I think about this. I assume these odds are parimutuel each time and the take is like 17.5%. Then since not all the horses run in the derby, the money bet on these horses doesn't increase the odds of horses that actually do run. So all that money goes into to Churchills pocket. The take on these bets have to be enormous.

[rastajenk]

I don't think you're on the right path, dad. Every pool has a winner, even if it's the #24 All the Rest selection. A 50-1 shot in Pool 1 that doesn't make it to the Derby pays the same as a 15-1 shot in Pool 1 that does get to the Derby but does not win: $0.00; the $$ on the 50-1 still get pari-mutuelly redistributed to those with the winning number.

[olddaddy]

rastajenk, I guess I didnt think it out correctly, thanks.

[exactatom]

Mendelsohn

[Fred Mertz]

Racing without blinkers, Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman's McKinzie was the consummate professional in Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. The 3-year-old son of Street Sense sat off the pace under Mike Smith, then drew even with the frontrunner All Out Blitz at the head of the lane. McKinzie, named for long-time Los Alamitos executive Brad McKinzie, pulled away with ease and crossed the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while well in-hand. The Bob Baffert trainee covered one mile over the fast main track in 1:36.58, earning 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...-sham-victory/

Derby prep race today. 10 Derby points to the winner.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

Racing without blinkers, Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman's McKinzie was the consummate professional in Saturday's Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. The 3-year-old son of Street Sense sat off the pace under Mike Smith, then drew even with the frontrunner All Out Blitz at the head of the lane. McKinzie, named for long-time Los Alamitos executive Brad McKinzie, pulled away with ease and crossed the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while well in-hand. The Bob Baffert trainee covered one mile over the fast main track in 1:36.58, earning 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...-sham-victory/

Derby prep race today. 10 Derby points to the winner.

I am very cautious with McKinzie on being able to race at longer distances. I believe he may be limited due to this as far as a classic horse and would tread carefully IMO.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I am very cautious with McKinzie on being able to race at longer distances. I believe he may be limited due to this as far as a classic horse and would tread carefully IMO.

Wasn't much of a field he beat either, especially with the defection of Mourino...Wonder if Baffert planned to pulled him all the time or what his decision to pull Mourino was based on...Mourino will probably pop-up somewhere soon...

Seems like Bob gets into this situation each year before the Derby....Lots of good horses that you don't necessarily want to run against each other because you want BOTH TO WIN for the good of their respective owners and records....

[Bennie]

Don't have my Derby papers in front of me. Don't dig them out till May but I recall that no horse has ever won the derby with an equipment change as a 3 year old. That withstanding, I don't think McKinzie is bred for the distance anyway and will have to prove me wrong before I back him.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Wasn't much of a field he beat either, especially with the defection of Mourino...Wonder if Baffert planned to pulled him all the time or what his decision to pull Mourino was based on...Mourino will probably pop-up somewhere soon...

Seems like Bob gets into this situation each year before the Derby....Lots of good horses that you don't necessarily want to run against each other because you want BOTH TO WIN for the good of their respective owners and records....

VTG,

While I am reluctant to think McKinzie will get the "classic" distances I still believe he has ALOT of talent. The limit to his ability may be a one-turn mile such as the Met mile. He may even be a future BC sprinter is he stays healthy.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

I don't think you're on the right path, dad. Every pool has a winner, even if it's the #24 All the Rest selection. A 50-1 shot in Pool 1 that doesn't make it to the Derby pays the same as a 15-1 shot in Pool 1 that does get to the Derby but does not win: $0.00; the $$ on the 50-1 still get pari-mutuelly redistributed to those with the winning number.

There actually IS a reason why the pari-mutuel futures pools are worse than an ordinary pari-mutuel bet, but it isn't due to horses not making it to the Derby. Rather, it's the time value of money. Essentially, when you bet in the November pool, you are giving Churchill Downs a six month interest free loan with your money. The later pools are shorter interest free loans. Whatever rate of return you can make on that money, you are giving it up and giving that return to Churchill-- and you have to add that to the takeout.

Every bookie in the world makes extra money on futures wagers because of this aspect.

[Bennie]

I don't think they are going to get rich on my $10 from the November but I do know some people on this site and else where around the country make some rather large bets on the pools. I consider myself a recreational better when it comes to the future pool. I can admit that I have had more horses not make the gate at all then run on the first Saturday in May.

[bpiets]

'i'' rather missed this site...now 'i' will return to same, lol...thanks...