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View Poll Results: What is your primary handicapping method?
Pen/Pencil and Paper 66 23.74%
Computer 103 37.05%
Mix of paper and computers 97 34.89%
Other 12 4.32%
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Old 09-14-2017, 05:32 PM   #226
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Thumbs up pace by numbers

Hi. Tom I like that pace method it's pretty simple. So you can rate closers too.
Is there anything to use that is simple also. thank. you. Workable.
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:33 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by workable View Post
Hi. Tom I like that pace method it's pretty simple. So you can rate closers too.
Is there anything to use that is simple also. thank. you. Workable.
You might do better to PM Tom as he supplied that method over 5 years ago.
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Old 09-18-2017, 01:18 PM   #228
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Race 1-Parx-9/18- 5-1/2f-Clm 7500 n3L-I’ll take a look at this using some of Pizzolla’s ideas plus a couple of mine. For starters, I attempted to set a fulcrum pace and found them all to N.A. A couple horses had good last pace numbers but all were atypical or even aberrant compared to other races. So I looked at all recent races and set an est. fulcrum pace at 46.0(fifths).

- Rocky The kid. 9-2 ML. He’s closer who I set his pace number at 46.2 from his last race. His adj. Sp. rtgs. Are highest of this lot. His late speed number by my calc’s is best of the lot, which doesn’t surprise being a closer.-Contender

Roosevelt Lane: I set his pace no. at 46.3 which is from his 3LR in May. By my class calc’s I set him as class of this bunch. His adj. S.r.’ s are 6th. His late speed is 5th, by my no;s.

-Made Of Steel-3-1 ML. I set his pace at 46.3 from 2LR in Aug. his adj. S.r.’s are 4th by my cal. I have his late speed as tied for first with

-In The Script. 10-1 ML. He set a blistering pace l.r. At 44.4 but that is an aberrant number looking at all his efforts. However, anyone who follows Parx will remember El Grillo who woke up recently and almost wired a field at 79-1, running 2nd. Then on Sunday he returned at 11-1 and ran 2nd again. In The Script led from the 7th pp l.r. So he may give it another shot today. I have his adj. S.r.’s as 4th best and his late speed 2nd last. Had they changed jockey today, I’d have to consider that as a positive.

Sergeant JWR- 4-1 ML. I set his pace number as 46.0 which is my est. fulcrum pace. His last race was 5f on the turf. And back on dirt today. I have his adj. S.r.’as 2nd best and his late speed as tied for 3rd. Contender

-Hennessy Fire 2-1 ML. I see a declining race horse as the ML favorite. I set his pace number at 47.2 with a 46.2 back in Aug. His adj. Speed is tied for 3rd, but a repeat of a 92 four months back would win this. His late speed is also tied for 3rd, but that’s including the effort from 4 mos. Ago. I wrote NQ in my notes.

-Return of a Giant: 12-1 ML. this horse was also in that aberrant pace race and ran a 45.3, but that’s atypical for him. I set his other numbers as 47.1 or 46.2 going back to Febf. His adj. S.r. are 3rd best but his late speed number is near the bottom.

When there’s no reliable fulcrum pace, it’s hard to decipher. I’m seeing them as / / / Doubtful a bet will be made. Interested if the tote tells me anything.
edit: at 34 mtp, the #2 has opened at modest 3-1 favorite. Considering his class, that doesn't surprise.
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Last edited by Whosonfirst; 09-18-2017 at 01:23 PM. Reason: live odds
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Old 09-18-2017, 01:34 PM   #229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
Race 1-Parx-9/18- 5-1/2f-Clm 7500 n3L-I’ll take a look at this using some of Pizzolla’s ideas plus a couple of mine. For starters, I attempted to set a fulcrum pace and found them all to N.A. A couple horses had good last pace numbers but all were atypical or even aberrant compared to other races. So I looked at all recent races and set an est. fulcrum pace at 46.0(fifths).

- Rocky The kid. 9-2 ML. He’s closer who I set his pace number at 46.2 from his last race. His adj. Sp. rtgs. Are highest of this lot. His late speed number by my calc’s is best of the lot, which doesn’t surprise being a closer.-Contender

Roosevelt Lane: I set his pace no. at 46.3 which is from his 3LR in May. By my class calc’s I set him as class of this bunch. His adj. S.r.’ s are 6th. His late speed is 5th, by my no;s.

-Made Of Steel-3-1 ML. I set his pace at 46.3 from 2LR in Aug. his adj. S.r.’s are 4th by my cal. I have his late speed as tied for first with

-In The Script. 10-1 ML. He set a blistering pace l.r. At 44.4 but that is an aberrant number looking at all his efforts. However, anyone who follows Parx will remember El Grillo who woke up recently and almost wired a field at 79-1, running 2nd. Then on Sunday he returned at 11-1 and ran 2nd again. In The Script led from the 7th pp l.r. So he may give it another shot today. I have his adj. S.r.’s as 4th best and his late speed 2nd last. Had they changed jockey today, I’d have to consider that as a positive.

Sergeant JWR- 4-1 ML. I set his pace number as 46.0 which is my est. fulcrum pace. His last race was 5f on the turf. And back on dirt today. I have his adj. S.r.’as 2nd best and his late speed as tied for 3rd. Contender

-Hennessy Fire 2-1 ML. I see a declining race horse as the ML favorite. I set his pace number at 47.2 with a 46.2 back in Aug. His adj. Speed is tied for 3rd, but a repeat of a 92 four months back would win this. His late speed is also tied for 3rd, but that’s including the effort from 4 mos. Ago. I wrote NQ in my notes.

-Return of a Giant: 12-1 ML. this horse was also in that aberrant pace race and ran a 45.3, but that’s atypical for him. I set his other numbers as 47.1 or 46.2 going back to Febf. His adj. S.r. are 3rd best but his late speed number is near the bottom.

When there’s no reliable fulcrum pace, it’s hard to decipher. I’m seeing them as / / / Doubtful a bet will be made. Interested if the tote tells me anything.
edit: at 34 mtp, the #2 has opened at modest 3-1 favorite. Considering his class, that doesn't surprise.
You say that both the and the ran "aberrant" pace times in their last race. Are you looking at the raw fractions...or are you looking at adjusted pace figures? Because my figures show that both these horses have run even faster half-miles in the past.
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Old 09-18-2017, 02:12 PM   #230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You say that both the and the ran "aberrant" pace times in their last race. Are you looking at the raw fractions...or are you looking at adjusted pace figures? Because my figures show that both these horses have run even faster half-miles in the past.
I was looking at fractions, only had Bris numbers, and have seldom used their pace numbers. Nice observation on your part. So my only success was setting the 46.0 as the estimated pace numbers.
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:23 PM   #231
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I was looking at fractions, only had Bris numbers, and have seldom used their pace numbers. Nice observation on your part. So my only success was setting the 46.0 as the estimated pace numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You say that both the and the ran "aberrant" pace times in their last race. Are you looking at the raw fractions...or are you looking at adjusted pace figures? Because my figures show that both these horses have run even faster half-miles in the past.
That's a good lesson. I normally haven't looked at 2nd call ratings, with the exception to look if there's improvement or decline. Throwing out his turf race, is the most consistent in that category over last 5 races, and is close behind.
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Old 09-21-2017, 11:28 AM   #232
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Race 2 GP 9/21

Race 2-Gulfstream-9/21 -1 Mile-6250 n2L-Purse = 16,000
Will again look at the pace(Fulc. Pace), adj. SR’s and late speed/ability time using various methods.

-Traffic Express-10-1 ML-46 day layoff. FP = n.a.(112.4/113.0) tent. SR’s are 70-84-62. The 84 was earned at 7f. Late speed looks to be bottom or 2nd last.

-Flying Rocket- 5/2 ML- FP = 112.3(fulcrum pace)-since Thask responded in last attempt, I now look at E2 pace numbers to see if they are atypical. Adj. sr’s are 75-66-81. Fly. Rkt is a lightly raced horse(4) and may still show more improvement. Late speed abt- looks to 2nd by my calcs.-Did his rail post on sly track help in l.r.? Prob. Favorite.

-Hy Dandy 8-1 ML FP = n.a.(113.0-111.1) 60 day l/o. 2lr and 3lr shows he can stay with pace. His adj. Sr’s are 51-79-83. His late speed abt. Looks to be last among these.Unknown layoff horses bother me, but he hasn’t shown another layoff in last 10. Nice 3f 35.4 only 4 days ago.

-Wise Warrior -8-1 ML FP = n.a.(111.3-111.4-113.3) He’s been mostly a sprinter, but back in April at 1M, he put up a 112.1 pace to 6f. His adj. SR’s 80-87-67 all sprints and his mile back in April was a 53. I have his last spd abt at 5th. I’d like to see more routes on his resume. It looks hypothetically, like he should be able to control the pace, and have something left to finish. Trainer hasn’t shown that yet.

-Off The Chain- 9/2 ML FP = 113.2 (112.2-112.3) Adj. SR 66-73-70. His late spd abil tms. are 3rd by my calcs. He ran a decent 3rd against a prob favorite in his last race while 5 wide on a good trk.They took off the apprentice in that race and a low pct. Journeyman is back on. His form cycle does look to be improving.

-Put the Boss Back 3-1 ML: FP = 113.0 (113.3-113.1-112.3). Adj. sr 71-67-72(6.5f)-my calcs show his late spd abil at 1st. His last two races were head knockers where he led or contended for lead at every call. He just lost l.r. By ĺ lgth. Will vie with for p.t. Favorite.

-Knockout Ranger 7/2-ML- FP = n.a.(112.4-112.2-112.0-112.2) Ran 2nd by 14 in last race where the pace was 1.11.0. Adj. SRs 85-75-71--78. Late speed abt’s are either 3rd/4th.

While this race may appear crystal clear to be many of you, it’s murky to me(like a lot of others). So I did another thing(old school) to see if it gets any clearer.
-47.4 - 113.0 - 139.3 (fifth’s)
-47.4 - 112.3 - 139.2
-47.3 - 112.4 - 139.3
-47.0 - 112.3 - 139.3 (based on sprints?)
-47.3 - 112.4/113.0 - 139.4
-48.0/48.1 - 113.1/113.2 - 139.2
-47.4 - 112.4 - 139.0

My picks are /// I've discounted the from two tough ones in a row. If a buddy was asking me at track, I'd probably tell him to box the 1/3/6.
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Old 10-10-2017, 09:55 PM   #233
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Class Hcp Method

Class HCP Method

A Handicapping Method that focuses mostly on class. Little to no consideration is given to speed, pace, times, Eís, Pís, Sí or E/Pís. I know this is will be considered short-sighted, especially on a website named PaceAdvantage. I made selections on all races today at Parx(10/10/17) pre-race and will link them here.

What I look at is consistency at win & place and EPS(earnings per start). Then I rank them 1 thru 5 or 6. I recently trotted this method out of the archives when visiting Portland Meadows, since it lends itself to doing a race fairly quickly after you get used to it. Today at Parx, this method hit on 3/9 races, returning $24.80 (4.80, 11.60, 8.40).

I made a mistake in race 1 by eliminating the #3-Sweet Candy Dance(winner). Horses are eliminated if last race was at same class level, and more than 8 lengths back at finish, I generally write NQ next to them. Doing a post mortem, I know nobody on here does that; his last race was a route on turf and his previous race on dirt only 23 days ago would have qualified him, since heís back on dirt today. That bone headed thinking kept me from a $10.60 winner, where he was (1-1) best bet at 4-1. Generally itís best to do this the night before and review prior to race. One more reason why itís so hard to win at this game.

Before doing a race, here are the general rules:
1. Consistency for current year, (Win+Pl)/Starts x 100%. Minimum 6 races, or use last two years. Of course for maidens, this rule is often broken
2. Earnings per start for last two years. I like using two years as it gives some back class.
3. Rank the W+P Consistency percentages with the highest getting a 1, and so on. If two percentages are close(approx. 2-3%) then I rate them the same. So a 50% cons. and 53% would be the same ranking in my mind.
4. Rank the EPS as the highest $/start as a #1, and so on. Rank them the same if $/Start are less than 5% different.
5. Eliminate horse at over 8 lengths back at finish if same level. If at a higher class in last race, then I look for something up close at one or more calls, or at a previous race at this class level.
6. Eliminate horse if laid off over 35 days, or set it to your threshold. That cost me one today in race 8, where #4 won at 57 days off, but had 4 recent workouts. The race was 1 mile, and many others believe a horse coming back to a route has a better chance than in a sprint.
7. Ties in rankings. I.e. Horse A (1-4)= 5 pts. Horse B (4-1) = 5 pts. My rule is if race is a sprint, give the first number(W/P %) more weight. If a route, give the second number(EPS) more weight. So Horse A in the above example would be the play if the race is sprint, and Horse B in a route.
8. Best bets are when you have one horse with (1-1) or 2 pts. & no other horses with a 1 in either category. While youíd think these will all be chalk, they often are decent odds.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=141239

Race 7-10/10/17 Parx- 5f- OC 25k/N2x-Purse 47000
Runs for Luck 8-1 ML 38% - $13,186 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual.
Swell 15-1 ML (18% - 8900)-NQ looked back to dirt race(12.5k) & made NQ call.
Dom the Bomb 10-1 ML 42%-8250 (2-3) 5 pts- Qual.
Winning the Medal 5-1 ML 17%-15668 (4-1) 5 pts.-Qual
Siralfredthegreat 9-5 ML (75%-17400) Not Qual, >4 mos-1 workout.
Godspeed Tommy 20-1 ML 13%-1840 (5-5) 10 pts.-Qual.
Great Lou 3-1 ML (42%-6100) Not Qual. 40 day layoff
Bluegrass Luck 6-1 ML 53% -4400 (1-4) 5 pts.-Qual.

In this race, we have 4 horses tied at 5 pts. So in a sprint(5f), the tie-breaker is first number, and is a (1-4) so his consistency makes him the pick. He wins and pays $11.60-6.80. The ran second in spite of being off over 4 months. ran third with a 40 day layoff.

Race 9-10/10/17 Parx-$5000-N2Y-1M70y-Purse $20,000
Castaway 5-2 ML 38%-$3388 (2-3) 5 pts.-Qual.
High Dollar Kitten 20-1 ML (33%-3280) -Not Qual; form 7-9-Ĺ blís
Star of Sarava 20-1 ML 18% -1990 (5-6) 11 pts.-Qual
Franklin 12-1 ML 40% -2750 (2-4) 6 pts.-Qual.
J R Jellybean 15-1 ML (42%-4397) -Not Qual; form 4-14-ĺ blís
Picozza 12-1 ML 11% -2360 (6-5) 11 pts.-Qual.
Oliver Rush 5-1 ML 21% - 2700 (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual.
Alaapatique 3-1 ML 50%- 3800 (1-1) 2 pts. -Qual.
Flash Paws 6-2 ML (30% -3455) -Not Qual 39 days and form
Demand 10-1 ML 31% - 3620 (3-2) 5 pts.-Qual

is a (1-1) best bet with no other 1ís for consistency or EPS. Although I prefer that NQ horses donít have higher numbers, which JR Jellybean has for EPS, but it didnít matter. The won and paid $8.40-4.80. The almost stole it at the wire, but prevailed.

I didnít talk about Turf rules. I do it the same, with the exception that instead of last two years EPS, I use turf earnings instead. To be qualified I also want a 10% or 30% ITM in turf races only.
I am currently refining the class rules to incorporate purse value relative to EPS, and also some of Scottís PCR class points for the last 10 races. Still a work in progress.

Iíve experimented eliminating all Qualifying rules for form and recency, and it sometimes finds a nice longshot. One final note, If a NQ horse would clearly be the (1-1) Best bet, I may use in my exactas.
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Old 10-11-2017, 03:41 AM   #234
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Class Hcp Method at Del 10/11

Race 1 Del-10/11/17-5-Ĺ f. -$10,000 n2L-Purse $16,000

Will handicap this race at Del. using the class method used yesterday at Parx.

My Nephew Koko 4/1 ML- (50% - $2338) - Not Qual-67 days l/o-1 w/o

Awesome Standard 10/1 ML- 14% - 2838 (3-3) 6 pts. - Qual.

El Cojo Paa 8-1 ML - 10% -1711 (4-4) 8 pts. - Qual at 2nd call in
route l.r.

Atlantic Field 15-1 ML- (13% - 1180) -Not Qual. form 11- 16 blís;

Arrivano 2-1 ML- 66% - 3080 - (1-2) 3 pts.-Qual

Poppyís Salsa 6-1 ML - (25% - 2350)- NQ.-56 day l/o. 0 workouts.

Love The Boat 12-1 ML- (0% - 1032)-NQ- 41 day l/o. 2 workouts

Rian 3-1 ML 50% - 4022 (2-1) 3 pts.- Qual.

Since this is a sprint; 5.5 f.; we give the edge to Arrivano at (1-2) over Rian at (2-1). Next is Awesome Standard (3-3) and El Cojo Paa (4-4). Any time we have only half of our field qualified, itís a problem with 3 layoff horses. Of those, Poppyís Salsa looks the most dangerous.
(for anyone not understanding the %, $, and rankings, see previous post)
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Old 10-11-2017, 04:44 AM   #235
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Race 2 Del-10/11-Class Hcp

Race 2-Del 1 Mile- Md Clm 6250- F&M 3&Up-Purse $10K

Using Class Hcp to do a tough Maiden(IMO) at Delaware. I won't post anymore of these on this thread.

Something Stuntly 10-1 ML- (25% - $830)-Not Qual on form 6-26blís at
same level

Tiggerís Gold 6-1 ML- 25%- 1166 (2-1) 3 pts.-Qual? 9th-6 blís
on turf l.r.?

Brahmís Sweets 4-1 ML- 13% - 968 (4-2) 6 pts.-Qual-3rd- 7.5 blís
@5000

One Bet -2-1 ML- 20% - 695 (3-3) 6 pts.-Qual 2nd - 1.5
blís @6250

Nobodyís Angel 8-1 ML- 0% -602 (5-4) 9 pts.-Qual-7 - 5.5 blís
turf

On The Prowl 8-1 ML- (17% - 1024) - NQ -5th - 16 blís

Perfect Rosie 3-1 ML- 42% - 670 (1-3) 4 pts. -Qual 3rd -2.5 blís @
6250

So we have 5 Qualified horses in this MCl. whose trainer records are: 0/19, 1/22, 0/30, 1/19 & 2/20!

By my rules, the Tiggerís Gold gets the nod at (2-1) with 3 pts. She is a 7 y.o. Mare with mostly turf races and 5 of her 8 races in 2014. The Perfect Rosie has (1-3) for 4 pts. And is 2nd choice.. Brahmís Sweets is (4-2) for 6 pts. Tied with One Bet (3-3) also with 6 points and logical favorite. I would most likely pass this race, but wanted to show it. Such an easy game we play.
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Old 10-11-2017, 09:17 AM   #236
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Race 2 Del-10/11 Update.

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Race 2-Del 1 Mile- Md Clm 6250- F&M 3&Up-Purse $10K

Using Class Hcp to do a tough Maiden(IMO) at Delaware. I won't post anymore of these on this thread.

Something Stuntly 10-1 ML- (25% - $830)-Not Qual on form 6-26blís at
same level

Tiggerís Gold 6-1 ML- *0%-$223* (4-4) 8 pts.-Qual? 9th-6 blís
on turf l.r.?

Brahmís Sweets 4-1 ML- 13% - 968 (3-1) 5 pts.-Qual-3rd- 7.5 blís
@5000

One Bet -2-1 ML- 20% - 695 (2-2) 4 pts.-Qual 2nd - 1.5
blís @6250

Nobodyís Angel 8-1 ML- 0% -602 (4-3) 7 pts.-Qual-7 - 5.5 blís
turf

On The Prowl 8-1 ML- (17% - 1024) - NQ -5th - 16 blís

Perfect Rosie 3-1 ML- 42% - 670 (1-2) 3 pts. -Qual 3rd -2.5 blís @
6250

So we have 5 Qualified horses in this MCl. whose trainer records are: 0/19, 1/22, 0/30, 1/19 & 2/20!
So, I've slept on this one, and decided that I wasn't following my own rules for last two years EPS, or Consistency. If I included 2014's stats for Tigger's Gold, then I'm using the last four years. So I've revised the numbers above and now goes from a (2-1) for 3 points to a (4-4) for 8 pts. So now the rankings say Perfect Rosie is first with (1-2) for 3 pts. Brahm's Sweets is second with (3-1), One Bet is third with (2-2). This feels like the times I changed an answer in school and was wrong. At any rate, I'll watch the race to see if my instincts were correct. Truth be told, the On the Prowl at 8-1 interests me the most, by leading the first two calls l.r. and then fading. She was in the same race with the and and it was her first try at one mile.

See Highlighted revisions above.
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:27 AM   #237
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interestion thread

I think this tread is interesting because I have come to the conclusion the speed figures are less important now. This is true especially in turf races.
Take the 2nd at Bel today. The bris best speed fig in the last 4 start are
1 78
2 82
3 74
4 77
5 84
6 87
7 84
8 87
2 is the ml favorite but has had a series of 6f race and no wins at the distance
8 Has the best speed fig at this distance and a win,but is coming off a 53 day lay off and is my pick to win
6 I like because he has the best speed fig along with the 8 and I like the way he came off his lay off in a sprint race.
7 has the best speed fig in his last race at 7f
5 ran his last race on slpy but has an 84 fig on turf at this dis,but he is moving up in class and is dropping off 8 lbs
I think 5,6,7,8 all have a good chance to win this race.
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Old 10-12-2017, 11:49 AM   #238
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I think this tread is interesting because I have come to the conclusion the speed figures are less important now. This is true especially in turf races.
Take the 2nd at Bel today. The bris best speed fig in the last 4 start are
1 78
2 82
3 74
4 77
5 84
6 87
7 84
8 87
2 is the ml favorite but has had a series of 6f race and no wins at the distance
8 Has the best speed fig at this distance and a win,but is coming off a 53 day lay off and is my pick to win
6 I like because he has the best speed fig along with the 8 and I like the way he came off his lay off in a sprint race.
7 has the best speed fig in his last race at 7f
5 ran his last race on slpy but has an 84 fig on turf at this dis,but he is moving up in class and is dropping off 8 lbs
I think 5,6,7,8 all have a good chance to win this race.
Belmont has an 80% chance of rain today, and it rained here last night and rainy this morning. I don't have reports if it's off turf or not. But we're a couple of hours away from there. At any rate, I'll take a shot at your race to see how class sees it for turf.(My perf. at Delaware yesterday wasn't a stunning recommendation)
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Old 10-12-2017, 12:03 PM   #239
jasperson
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off the turf

If it is off the turf my picks are the 4 and 6.
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Old 10-12-2017, 01:03 PM   #240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperson View Post
I think this tread is interesting because I have come to the conclusion the speed figures are less important now. This is true especially in turf races.
Take the 2nd at Bel today. The bris best speed fig in the last 4 start are
1 78
2 82
3 74
4 77
5 84
6 87
7 84
8 87
2 is the ml favorite but has had a series of 6f race and no wins at the distance
8 Has the best speed fig at this distance and a win,but is coming off a 53 day lay off and is my pick to win
6 I like because he has the best speed fig along with the 8 and I like the way he came off his lay off in a sprint race.
7 has the best speed fig in his last race at 7f
5 ran his last race on slpy but has an 84 fig on turf at this dis,but he is moving up in class and is dropping off 8 lbs
I think 5,6,7,8 all have a good chance to win this race.
I'm in a quandary to qualify About the Base on his Form, plus there's a 41 days off, but 3 recent works. In addition his recent lack of tactical speed has gotten him into traffic woes in 5/6 of his last races. With the drop from Sar, and his top class ratings, I'm leaving him for dirt and turf.

So for Turf I have them
(edit): Baronet would be a longshot play for ITM if it stays on turf

For Dirt my top two are the same:
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Predicting the outcome of a horse race is an activity that exerts continuing appeal to the extraordinarily opulent. It is intellectually lucrative albeit fiscally ruinous.-Richard Epstein

Last edited by Whosonfirst; 10-12-2017 at 01:06 PM.
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