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Old 09-16-2017, 01:29 AM   #46
Gamblor
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My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7
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Old 09-16-2017, 08:47 PM   #47
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No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?
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Old 09-16-2017, 11:01 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by ronsmac View Post
No Ex, DD, P3 or P4 . What the hell is up with that? Why is the Quinella a major bet?
No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:32 AM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
My top 5 in each race, didn't do r2, using my magic tea leaves system -

r1 - 1,9,7,2,6
r3 - 7,8,6,9,2
r4 - 12,2,10,9,11
r5 - 2,6,5,1,7
r6 - 1,6,10,11,7
r7 - 13,3,8,7,4
r8 - 11,4,10,1,9
r9 - 11,10,13,12,2
r10 - 14,6,9,12,7
wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:02 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by fellowmen View Post
wow im impressed with you percentages especially seeming how you made your pics well ahead of post. You must of had a winning night
The magic tea leaves know...
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:30 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
No exactas on track, so more dough goes into the Q and Q-place (omni) pools.

Some ADWs carry the double, and it pays off a consolation on the second leg if your horse runs second.

Not sure if they have a pick 3 or pick 4. But they do have a "triple trio", which is three tris in a row. Pays huge. I think they also have a pick six and something like a place nine, but it doesn't get much coverage. The bet that does get a lot of mention is the jockey challenge, where Moreira wins at 2-5 most nights. A real snoozer IMHO, but based on the reaction of the crowd at times, appears to be pretty popular.

Personally, the tri is tough enough to hit, but I don't understand why the ADWs don't carry the super (1st four) or super box (quad).
It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.
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Old 09-18-2017, 04:10 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by ronsmac View Post
It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.
is is possible to bet directly into their pools using a foreign website so we can get in on their monster pools? like the triple trio or the six up or the Hong Kong jockey clubs site
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Old 09-18-2017, 02:07 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Yes Woody, as usual you offered a very nice write up. The majority of players may regard it as “refreshing” because that’s what they’ve been indoctrinated into believing. However its unfortunately only a portion of what this game is ALL about: And that’s Money.
But not to worry, after a delightful and very rewarding Sunday morning I doubt I’ll have the time or inclination to post my future selections for HK. I doubt they were of much interest to the so-called handicappers anyway.
Best of luck Woody!

BTW, I posted this on another thread related to HK racing. However, it actually has also has significance here as related to the value of handicapping and statistical analysis.
Correct.
It is “wonderful” when you can often glean an inside track of potential contenders in a race!
For those like me, who acknowledge the significance of money flow as a “Given”, we really could care less about where it’s coming from. What’s more important is it’s flow: When and Where its going in to the various betting pools. Insinuating “Conspiracy theories” is a feeble explanation for underestimating the objectives and intent of those on the inside: The connections. Who BTW don’t often publicly reveal their intentions, but would rather “Let their money do their talking" as objective evidence of their confidence.

Yet, you have to enjoy comments like these (At least I do); because it clearly demonstrates (once again) a complete lack of appreciation of the realities of the horse racing game from the perspective of the typical handicapper. I’m not going to pursue this very deeply, because it’s getting old.
However, I would enjoy reading a valid argument (from any credible source) as to how typical handicapping methodology in general (Computerized or otherwise) can rationalize 2 very basic but critical aspects of the game from an Outsider’s perspective:
1) Can it predict whether or not each and every entry in a race is actually going to make an attempt to Win it?
2) How all of the past performance data or statistical analysis can determine the current physical and mental well-being of each horse entered in a race?

Although I won’t take this any further, you might want to consider what Bill Benter has personally stated. If you don’t recognize the name here’s a link:
http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/
If you don’t respect his credibility, I would assume that you’re beyond his accomplishments and capabilities. So don't bother trying to comprehend the significance of his comments (below):

Excerpts from:
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter


INTRODUCTION
The question of whether a fully mechanical system can ever "beat the races" has been widely discussed in both the academic and popular literature. Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors. Technical systems for place and show betting, (Ziemba and Hausch, 1987) and exotic pool betting, (Ziemba and Hausch,1986) as well as the 'odds movement' system developed by Asch and Quandt (1986), fall into this category. A benefit of these systems is that they require relatively little preparatory effort, and can be effectively employed by the occasional race goer.

The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.


BTW the last 2 sentences express exactly how Mr. Benter was able to achieve his success.
Since it sounds as though you're using a tote-watching system, I don't understand why you're citing Benter's method as proof that yours works. This isn't what he was doing at all. You make it sound as though he wasn't using a 'fundamental model', as he describes it (or, making your own line, as the average handicapper would describe it) because it would be too difficult. In fact, this is exactly what he did. And his 'fundamental model' was more powerful than the 'public model' -- it made a small profit. But it became much more powerful after he combined it with the 'public model' -- aka 'the odds' -- in the areas where the 'public model' was stronger. This is what you summarize in the last two sentences of your post. But, he wasn't doing this on a race-by-race basis, as you imply -- this model-combination was the result of an analysis of thousands of races. So, as with anyone who makes a line, he knew the odds he (or really his runners) was looking for before the race -- he wasn't watching tote movement.

Also, re tote action itself -- I've never seen a serious study that didn't describe pre-race price movement as random. And in this age of improved computer power, it certainly is one of the easiest things to track.

Cheers,

lansdale
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Old 09-18-2017, 03:38 PM   #54
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 14, 2017
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: *771 (3 winners and a second), 009

Horse to watch for list:
Race 4 (040) Laughing Lord: Leaped out of the gate with his front legs off the ground, forcing him to race near the end of the herd, was starting his move but as soon as he had room a tired front runner moved into his path forcing back down toward the rail just missed out by a neck by a closer on the outside. Picked up 2 ratings points off the race, hopefully will be able to keep Moreria on for the next race.

Race 10 (046) Such A Happiness: Was bet down as the 7-2 favourite after moving up in class after a nice win, drew the rail in a full 14 horse field, raced mid-pack while saving ground, was full of run entering the stretch but was boxed in with no exit plan available, tried to avoid the tiring front runner but was bumped multiple times by Winston’s Lad.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 5 (041): Good Fit: Was a quick pull up soon after the race.

Race 2 (044) Marvel Tribe: Was all out in the stretch while defeating a rival who never got back to his proper lead step, picked up 6 points so he’ll be forced up to Class 4 next time out.

Speed Figures:
1st (037): 98
2nd (038): 92
3rd (039): +94
4th (040): +92
5th (041): -94
6th (042): -93
7th (043): 109 ?
8th (044): 102
9th (045): 100
10th (046): 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 09-19-2017, 09:39 PM   #55
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Hong Kongfor September 20th at Happy Valley. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees, Mostly cloudy this evening. Wind: E 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170920_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 3 Sweet Bean (3-1) Draws a bad post and his last few races haven’t been very much to brag about, if it wasn’t for Moreira he would be 20-1 and not the chalk.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *746 (3rd, 6th, 8th and 10th have won their next races):
Race 4 King Winsa (6-1) and Scarborough Fair (31-1), Race 6 Casa Master (13-1).

Race *747 (5th and 7th won while 3rd ran second):
Race 7 Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Race 015 (3rd, 4th and 10th won next out):
Race 1 Forever Fun (74-1), Race 5 Phantom Falcon (7-2) and Formula Galore (8-1).



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 King of Mongolia (17-1)
Race 4 Smart Union (3-1)
Race 6 Wah May Baby (10-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Key Play:
Race 7 Fantastic Feeling (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Goal For Gold (12-1)
Race 3 Loyal Craftsman (14-1)
Race 7 Charity Glory (10-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-21-2017, 10:50 PM   #56
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 20, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None
Key Races: 009

Notes for the day: Tracked started out very fast for the first 5 races with a clunker in there for the fourth, number came back everyone running around 8 points slow, the fig was adjusted +5 after closer inspection. Track slowed down compared to the earlier races but still a little faster than par. The 3rd race was a grade lower than normal even for a Class 5 event

Horse to watch for list:

Race 050 #7 Smart Union: Was bet down to 7-2 after being away since May, broke well and was taken back looking for room to get near the rail but was unable to being forced out 3 wide in the first turn. Still being taken further back looking for room entering the backside, while this was going on the eventual winner was galloping along on an easy lead setting a very leisurely pace, moved to the three path on the turn for home and carried further out entering the stretch, started making up ground while racing all over the track, just missed out by less than an length.

Race 052 #8 Speedy Wally: Broke well and was able to find a good spot on the rail full of run, moved to the 3 path on the backside moved even further outside at the 450 metre mark, when asked ran by the field with ease. Picked up 7 rating points so will stay in this class for his next out.

Race 053 #1 Fantastic Feeling: Broke a little tardy with his front legs off the ground then was jostled around soon afterward, was full of run on the rail in the turn, was all caught up in the wash in the stretch while racing on his wrong lead step, took off when room but race was already decided, galloped out past the winner soon after the wire. Didn’t pick up any rating points so will be able to stay in Class 3.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 048 #4 Sharp Sailor: Had to the move to the 5 path in the turn and Nash had to get to his bottom in the stretch, picks up 7 points so will most likely be carrying 132 pounds in his next race.

Speed Figures:
1st (047): +98
2nd (048): 102
3rd (049): +88
4th (050): -93#
5th (051): 96
6th (052): 95
7th (053): 102
8th (054): 103


*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
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Old 09-23-2017, 12:25 AM   #57
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Old 09-23-2017, 08:34 PM   #58
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Hong Kongfor at Sha Tin. Seventh race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees, 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind: E 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00pm PT. Rail: Course “A”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170924_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 2 Smiling Glory (4-1) Draws the 11 hole and last couple races on the dirt have nothing to write home about. Even with the Brazilian on don’t care too much for horses that don’t like to win

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):

Race *720: The 2nd and 9th won next out while the winner and 10th place runners ran second:
Race 7 Malmsteen (29-1)

Race *773: 3rd and 7th came back and won:
Race 6 Regency Darling (22-1)

Race 009: the 3rd and 5th won with the 4th place finisher came in 2nd in his next race:
Race 7 Easy Touch (34-1)
Race 9 Chung Wah Spirit (5-1)
Race 9 Diamond King (25-1)



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 1 Industrialist Way (3-1)
Race 7 Right Call (17-1)
Race 10 Hang’s Decision (13-1)
Race 10 Soalr Hei Hei (13-1)


Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 Multigogo (4-1) Was bet down to 9-2 as the second choice while getting blinkers for the first time, was bumped then knocked sideways forcing him a little farther back than his comfort zone early on. Had no chance of catching the easy winner later in the stretch.

Race 10 Citron Spirit (8-1) Broke extremely badly in a Class 3 event spotting the field at least 5 lengths till he straightened up, saved ground on the turn moved to the four path in the stretch and closed well but never able to get to the easy winner, galloped out well.

Key Play:
Race 9 Household King (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 Great Toplight (11-1)
Race 4 Snowhooves (10-1)
Race 5 Unique Joyful (24-1)
Race 7 Lucky Guy (16-1)
Race 9 Regency Bo Bo (10-1)
Race 10 Solar Hei Hei (13-1)

Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-24-2017, 05:50 AM   #59
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Originally Posted by ronsmac View Post
It looks like my only options are win, place,quin, tri and place quin.
Same for me now as well, at least at Twinspires and Xpressbet. Sometime in the last year or so, at least one of them or TVG also carried a double wager, but apparently no longer.
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Old 09-24-2017, 01:48 PM   #60
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No idea why they stopped carrying doubles. Makes no sense
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