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Old 09-12-2017, 04:08 PM   #31
Gamblor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 10th
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None
Key Races: None
Horse to watch for list:
Race 8 #8 Gorgeous Again – Had been away since July, picked up Moreira for the mount so went off at a short price of 3-1. Hit the side of the gate at the start mover to the three path half-way thru the turn, looked like he may win at the 100 metre mark only to be outrun near the wire. May need to go a little longer than 1,600 metres.
Race 9 #4 Daring Fit – Leaped out of the gate costing him a length and his usual running style of racing on the lead, was boxed in at the 400 metre mark, closed well when clear but was never going to catch the easy winner Pingwu Spark.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 4 #13 Telecom Boom – Was able to get up in the middle of the track while the second place runner was getting caught up in the wash down near the rail and got a 18 pound advantage also.
Race 5 #6 Morethanlucky - Teetan had to get to his bottom in the stretch to get up while earning his lifetime top speed figure, looking for a bounce in his next out.

Speed Figures:
1st (019) 100
2nd (020) 95
3rd (021) 94
4th (022) - 88
5th (023) -97
6th (024) 97
7th (025) 109
8th (026) -99 #
9th (027) 108
10th (028) – 99

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.
Top analysis, thanks very much. Question - what are your speed figure adjustments? Is how many pounds you think it takes to impact 1L at each distance?
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Old 09-12-2017, 08:17 PM   #32
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Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.
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Old 09-12-2017, 09:08 PM   #33
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Hong Kong for September 13th at Happy Valley. Fourth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 80 Degrees Partly Clouded with a 50 % chance of showers. Wind: ENE 10 to 20 mph
Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170913_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 8 Dr Listening (3-1) Is running for a new barn since leaving John Size. Is a very consistent racer but going up from Class 3 to Class 2 is a nice jump in class and drawing the 11 hole in the short run to the first turn may be little tough for his first time against a tough Class 2 field.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
None

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 3 Emperor Victory (13-1)
Race 5 Sparkling Sword (15-1)
Race 6 Ten Flames (12-1)
Race 7 Extremely Fun (30-1)
Race 7 Back In Black (16-1)
Race 7 Bold Elegance (22-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 1 Smart Boy (3-1) Raced in the rear moved from the 2 path to the 3 path half-way thru the turn, was blocked by three runners in front of him early in the stretch, moved to the outside and closed well but move was started when the winner was finding room near the rail.

Race 7 Dollar Reward – Has had trouble in his two previous races before this out while just missing out by a head in July. Was bumped hard at the start then had to check up costing him around 2 lengths. Blocked by a wall of horses entering the stretch at the same time the stand-by runner was making his big win move on the outside. When clear he started running but Purton wrapped up on him when he saw the winner running away.

Race 8 Doyeni (8-1) Broke well on the rail, settled in behind the first flight, was asked at the 600 metre mark but was forced down back to the rail entering the stretch while looking for room. Looked hesitant to go thru with a whip being used right in front of his face. Closed well when able to find room.

Key Play:
Race 8 Doyeni (8-1)

Longshots:
Race 2 The Show (13-1)
Race 4 Iron Boy (10-1)
Race 6 Magnetism (5-1)
Race 7 Breeders’ Star (12-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-12-2017, 10:42 PM   #34
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#2 Doyeni must have been the best horse in Hong Kong not to win a race last season. While he mustered only a 3rd place from 4 starts, he was flying late in every start, missing by a length or less against top milers Booming Delight and Eastern Express on 2 separate occasions. He has shown the ability to consistently eclipse a triple digit speed figure, even under a significant impost as he’ll deal with today (under 128 pounds, he is the effective high weight after #1 Packing Dragon drops 7 pounds under apprentice Matthew Poon). In his only performance last season in which earned below a 99 speed figure, his jockey, Kei Chiong earned a suspension for questionable riding tactics in the stretch.

On the downside, he will need to win from barrier #10, and jockey Douglas Whyte has yet to hit the board this season. The idea is that he will be able to get over and settle without losing too much ground before uncorking a huge rally. With a reasonable run he should inhale these in the straight. Currently at odds of 9.1, he’s a terrific bet at a big price.
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Old 09-13-2017, 07:03 AM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woodbinepmi View Post
Thanks. I don't put any adjustments on weight, tried it out for a while but because Hong Kong uses the handicap system I was noticing that the figures were skewed too much towards the high weight horses. So I ditched using it. As a rough rule of thumb I was using this for a length:

1,000 = 7lbs.
1,200 = 5.75 lbs.
1,400 = 4.85 lbs.
1,600 = 4.2 lbs.
1,650 = 4 lbs.
1,800 = 3.7 lbs.
2,000 = 3.25 lbs.
2,200 = 2.9 lbs.
2,400 = 2.5 lbs.

Yeah but I mean the table you list in your posts with adjustments for each distance, to what does it refer?
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Old 09-13-2017, 07:22 AM   #36
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My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7
R5 think #11 is big overs, and the 10 for that matter, 11-10-1-2-3
R6 I'm drawn to Magnetism, will be backing it, 9-2-1-10-4
R7 too tough 6-11-5-12-10
R8 I'll be asleep by this time too tough anyway 10-6-11-5-9
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Old 09-13-2017, 08:00 AM   #37
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My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1
2 wins from 9, quinella pays 40/1. :headbanger :

Did I say the race was too tough? I meant too easy!!
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Old 09-13-2017, 08:50 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
My 2c worth -

R2 - even race, too tough but 2-8-9-7-1 - 2,9 quinella 40/1
R3 Another even one, 8-1-10-3-11 11 dead heats for first at 40/1
R4 E-Super the bet for me, numbers 6-2-3-1-7 E-super bolts in
Gee... this game isn't too hard, is it? Why's there so many threads on here about this and that, millions of discussions about speed figures and blah blah blah, don't worry about that garbage, just follow the Gamblor mail!!
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Old 09-13-2017, 09:24 AM   #39
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R5 sends me back to earth with a thud.

Magnetism has drawn out all the money in my account, to have on it the win. Come on!!
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Old 09-13-2017, 09:52 AM   #40
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Good pickin' Gamblor. You and Poon are hot tonight.
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Old 09-13-2017, 09:59 AM   #41
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Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!
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Old 09-13-2017, 10:21 AM   #42
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Race 7
Does anyone like Moreira at 30-1?
He's been on some surprisingly long odds horses tonight. But 30-1?!
He finished last at 15-1
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:06 PM   #43
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Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 13, 2017
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: Mid-pack
Key Races: *747, *763, *767, *807, 15
Notes for the day: Big day for bug boy Poon with 4 wins, not so much for Moreria who is held scoreless.

Horse to watch for list:
Race 2 #3 London City – Had been away since June and was bet down to 3-1 as the slight favourite, sat right off the leaders in a nice striking position but was forced three wide uncovered on the turn when the runner (eventual winner) under him came off the rail looked like a winner at the 150 mark but was just a little short to the first place runner who had already had a race out since the break, missed only by a half-length.

Race 3 #8 Fun Manager – Was steadied costing him a length entering the first turn, slight steady again in the short turn right before the run down the back side, then had to check again around the 700 metre mark finished out well in the stretch only to lose by a length and a half.

Race 6 #9 Magnetism – Off since May after his impressive win, was bet down to the second choice at 9-2, raced 2 wide in the first turn while chasing a slow early pace had to hold up when the pace turned pedestrian in front of him moved to three wide in the turn for home looked tired half-way thru the stretch but continued to close without being asked while never having a chance to catch the easy winner.

Horses to avoid next out:
Race 2 #2 Good Companion – Had to really dig down to get up with a weight break from the hot apprentice jock while beating a very average Class 4 field in an average time, has to move up now to Class 3.

Speed Figures:
1st (029): 98#
2nd (030): 96
3rd (031): +93
4th (032): 99
5th (033): -98
6th (034): -100
7th (035): 100
8th (036): 102

*Speed figures length equalizations:
1,000 – 2.8
1,200 – 2.3
1,400 – 1.9
1,600 – 1.7
1,650 – 1.6
1,800 – 1.5
2,000 – 1.3
2,200 – 1.2
2,400 – 1

Pars :
Graded Stakes – 110
Class 1 – 107
Class 2 – 104
Class 3 – 100
Class 4 – 96
Class 5 – 92

*Speed figure notations:
Before the number:
+ - Race had an extremely fast early pace.
-- - Race had an extremely slow early pace.
After the number:
# - Figure was adjusted due to abnormal fast or slow final time.
? – Figure was not adjusted but may be out of line for their normal performance for the class.

F.Y.I. Hong Kong will be racing Saturday this week instead of their normal Sunday race card.
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:41 PM   #44
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Hong Kongfor September 15th at Sha Tin. Fifth race meeting of the 2017-2018 year.
Weather report: 92 Degrees partly clouds. Wind: WNW 5 to 10 mph.

Post time: 1.00am ET, 10.00 pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20170916_starter_all.pdf
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard

Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

Vulnerable favourites on the card:
Race 4 3 Good Method (3-1) Has only 1 win out of 40 lifetime races, has a tendency to run second and third.

Horses coming out of key races (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1) Race 15 the third and fourth place runners have come back and won.
Race 2 London Master (13-1) Comes out of the same race as #4 Fish N’ Chips.
Race 4 4 Foxbat (7-1) Race *773 The third and seventh place won next out.
Race 6 4 Winaswewish (49-1) Also comes out of race 15.
Race 8 1 Turf Sprint (5-1) Race *807 The third and sixth place runners won while the winner came back and ran second next time out.



In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 2 4 Fish N’ Chips (7-1)
Race 4 2 Ambitious Speedy (8-1)
Race 5 7 Good Fit (8-1)
Race 6 5 The Full Bloom (17-1)
Race 9 9 Master Viking (15-1)



Last race watch list horses:
Race 3 1 Best Tango (12-1) Became rank soon after the start and continued his antics down the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch when room started moving then had to be taken up with 200 metres to go was wrapped up on soon afterwards and was allowed to gallop out.

Race 5 8 Sure Peace (8-1) Broke a length slow the was asked but Teetan had no response, moved to the three path on the backside while racing in the back of the field moved out to the 6 path entering the stretch did finish well but never a challenge for the easy winner.

Race 8 11 Travel Emperor (6-1) Off as the 5-2 favourite after winning and making the jump up from Class 4, was a little slow out the gate then started climbing when asked to get into contention raced 2 wide on the turn moved to the 4 path for the stretch run was outrun by the eventual easy winner.

Race 10 6 Winston’s Lad (7-1) Broke well but had to be taken up soon after, moved to three wide entering the stretch had to keep moving further outside for room to run started really getting at it the last 150 metres and just missed out by a length… Should like the added distance here and the draw closer to the rail.

Key Play:
Race 9 11 Top Beautiful (2-1)

Longshots:
Race 6 7 Empire Star (22-1)
Race 9 6 Ace King (16-1)


Before the each race meeting I will be publishing a report on the previous race day, including: Speed figures for each race, horses to watch for, horses to avoid next time out, biases, key races and general observations on the day.
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Old 09-15-2017, 11:33 PM   #45
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Here is tonight's analysis of Race 1 from Sha Tin.

Race 1 is a 1200M Class 4. The field looks top heavy, but may have a vulnerable favorite and perhaps some live longshots to spice up the exotics.

#1 Mordicus brings a lot of speed to the table, and earned the top speed figure in the field in the Sha Tin finale over the same class and distance. He was overhauled in that one, finishing 6th, but was only beaten less than 3 lengths, in a race in which the winner was 2 lengths clear. Throw out the race 2 back, when he was taken out of his game with a slow break. As the high weight once again, he has a positive “bet-on” angle, switching from Kei Chiong to Zac Purton, who is overdue to get going. Solid today, and could be tough to catch in the opener as the 2nd choice.

#2 None Other has some similar form to Mordicus. While Mordicus probably is faster from the gate, None Other also has a the speed to be competitive early, and from the 1 hole is liable to gun for it early. He was 2nd last out, but earned a much slower speed figure than Mordicus (72 vs. 88), and the last several figures of last season were all below par for the level. That said, he gets the biggest jockey change in the business, going from the low percentage Jack Wong to the dominant Joao Moreira. Dangerous, but overbet as the chalk.

#3 My Honey, #4 The Legend, and #5 Lightning Missile have all been non-competitive while ice cold on the board in their 1st/2nd starts, and none look competitive today.

#6 Money Winner is worth a look underneath at a big price in this spot. While the form isn’t much on the surface, he earned respectable speed figures in his first two starts (77 and 79), before encountering significant trouble last out. The trainer Tsui is off to a blistering start, although Douglas Whyte, a former champion rider in Hong Kong is still seeking his first winner. He’ll be flying late, and shouldn’t be written off.

#7 Indigenous Star is another long one in here who is at least a little bit interesting underneath. He figures to picking up some pieces late, and the relatively lightly raced 4 year old had improving form at the end of last season, finishing up with a sub 23 second final quarter to finish 4th last out. Gets in at 116 pounds with Leung up, and is a tad interesting.

#8 Joyful Forever would be a surprise in here, as he hasn’t made much of an impression in 4 lifetime starts. Appears destined for Class 5.

#9 Rewarding Flyer is a contender for Moore and Berry. A 2-time winner last season, he took a Class 5 wire-to-wire 3 back, and then had a nice finish on opening day at Sha Tin this season to finish 2nd. If he is able to build on that performance at all (and avoid a wide trip), he may be well positioned to run down the #1 and #2 in the lane. Value at 3rd choice.

# 10 Victor Emperor is at least a little interesting here, as he makes his 2nd start off the long layoff. In the spring he ran a few races that would be good enough to take this, including a Class 5 score. He was injured in April after taking a ton of money, and then jogged behind the field in the comebacker on opening day. He’ll be a big price, and if he can regain his fitness, isn’t impossible.
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