Horses of Interest

[BETA]

Apr 18th…. I have a couple of potential plays at PARX I’d like to share…. Before continuing, most plays I post will be “price” oriented using the morning line and my own past experience as a “value” barometer…. Since I’ll tear up more losing tickets than winners, please be mindful of my recommended strike rate if electing to follow along….

First potential play is PARX/Race2…. This is projected to be a “chaos” race for cheap claimers (NW2L) routing 8.3 furlongs…. The #4, Curlin Crush, has an “A” contender grade based on the analytics I use to separate contenders (“A+” = Best)…. This horse is fourth choice on the ML at 5/1…. Fresh off breaking his maiden (MDC$10k), Curlin Crush is facing winners for the first time and appears to properly entered (race conditions) per sharp barn…. Tactical early speed a plus as he will most likely be chasing the PEN shipper (#7) and should get first run verse the others…. 1 for 12 lifetime record and overall chaos nature or race a major concern, so need minimum 9/2 tote odds accordingly…. Other contenders =
#6 Mr. Charles (MLO 3/1) – Grade B
#5 Rocky the Kid (MLO 8/1) – Grade C
#8 Eastern Front (MLO 5/2) – Grade C
#1 Extrovert (MLO 10/1) – Non Contender but interesting than Trevor McCarthy is riding?


Next, PARX/Race5…. Projected to be an “orderly” allowance race (NW1) for sprinters traveling 5.5 furlongs…. The #2, Atlantis Romance, has an “A” contender rating and is fifth choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 4 yr old filly does not look all that competitive on paper; but, I like the race two back showing strong early speed and tiring late…. Last race poor showing a concern but like the 46 day layoff and should fire fresh…. I think this filly has upside and will gamble at 6/1 or higher…. Other contenders =
#7 Polite Pearl (MLO 3/1) – Grade B+
#6 Miss Avalon (MLO 2/1) – Grade C
#1 Simplylucky (MLO 9/2) – Grade C

BOL!

[usfgeology]

Nice analysis BETA. Tote board didn't meet your req's but hopefully your better judgement didn't cost you in Parx 2.

[BETA]

I plan on posting selections for the next several days as potential price opportunities present themselves.... I also plan to track results…. Neither of my two plays today met my minimum odds requirement....

Current Record = 0 for 0.

[BETA]

Thanks, usfgeology…. RE: Better Judgment

I’m an old school, database guy…. I like to use analytics to point me in the right direction (i.e.: “fishing in the right ponds”) and then apply handicapping experience to confirm or reject the “output”.

I tried for years to make the perfect oddsline…. In fact, I made a killer line as every one of my projected 2/1 shots won on average 33% of the time…. The problem was “on average” as most of the winners won as tote underlays and the resulting overlays did not win enough to generate a positive ROI…. There’s just too much race-to-race variance as I’m not good enough to make a viable, automated probability estimate…. Not saying it can’t be done, just admitting I can’t do it!

Instead, I have database (past history) metrics that project three different race types = Dominant; Orderly; and Chaos…. I then use five different multi-factor algorithms to produce five separate models unique to each race type…. There is some minor correlation between models; but, I liken it to using a consensus of five expert handicappers resulting in contender choices based on an A-B-C “strength” approach…. Then, I use a value based algorithm to further separate contenders as “A+” thru “D”.

Sorry for the background details; but I thought it might be helpful to properly address your comment regarding “better judgment”…. All contenders are classified (based on “race type”) into four tote board odds ranges:

L = Low Odds (Dominant race type must be less than 3 to 1; Orderly race type must be less than 3.5 to 1; and Chaos race type must be less than 4 to 1).
S = Sweet Spot Odds (All race types subtracting one from field size…. For example, an eight horse field equals odds of 7 to 1 or less to qualify).
N = Natural Odds (Dominant race type <= Field Size times 1.5; Orderly race type <= Field Size times 1.75; and Chaos race type <= Field Size times 2).
H = High Odds (All odds greater than Natural Odds as defined above).

The “plays” I’m posting for the next several days involve “A+” and “A” qualified contenders only based on a couple of pre-race filters and tote conditions as follows:

“A+” selection must be greater than MLO rank 1 with tote odds falling into the Low or Sweet Spot range based on a minimum odds requirement of 2/1.

“A” selection must be greater than MLO rank 2 with tote odds falling into the Natural Odds range only.

If you deviate from these guidelines, please make sure you’ve properly vetted the race using your normal handicapping routines.

Thanks and sorry for the long post!

BTW, I want to give credit to Dave Schwartz for many of the concepts I’ve outline above…. If you want to become a better handicapper, you should definitely check out the many fine products on his website.

[usfgeology]

Thanks BETA. I am, in fact, here to learn. I went to Tampa Bay Downs on 1/1/2017 and saw my very first thoroughbred race. I caught the bug instantly and have been trying to absorb as much as possible between online forums, the Davidowitz book, and real and simulated wagering to test my approaches.

While your thorough explanation approaches and exceeds my full comprehension, I appreciate you taking the time to spell it out.

One initial question comes to mind - what are some of the criteria by which you grade the race type (Dominant, Orderly, and Chaotic). To over-simplify your approach, the more chaotic you grade the race - the more favorable odds your "contenders" need to have in order for you to make a play.

I think this is in essence, understanding the quality of the race. How would a new player go about evaluating a given race type? Standard deviation of pace/speed figures or other quantitative evaluation using a racing form or PPS? Or is it more qualitative - a 12 horse, low $ maiden claiming race on the inner turf can be assumed to be chaotic when compared to an 8 horse, high $ allowance race.

Although I suspect I answered my own question in that it's a little bit of both, but all the relevant information can be derived quantitatively.

[BETA]

Originally Posted by usfgeology

How would a new player go about evaluating a given race type?

Your instincts are great! Field size, number of unknowns, and strength of the tote favorite, (etc.) are all components of classifying a "race type".... I'm not sure how to do this manually other than gauging your own "confusion" when identifying and separating race contenders.... As you gain more experience this should become easier....

For me, I churn different factors within a database to automate this output.... But, I still only use it as a starting point as individual race dynamics make it very hard to have a "one size fits all" approach....

At the end of the day, it's all about science verse art.... The primary reason I'm posting plays is I've been taking too many shortcuts using the "science" and not enough handicapping "art".

Sorry, I can't really help you; but, I can give you a look at some of the data I use as a "starting point" to hopefully better illustrate what I’m talking about:

[BETA]

Here's the attachments:

[BETA]

Apr 19th….

First potential play is AQU/Race7 (Turf only)…. This is projected to be a “chaos” race for nice allowance fillies and mares (NW1) routing 8.5 furlongs on turf…. The #5, Glory to Kitten, has an “A” contender grade and is fifth choice on the ML at 8/1…. She has been racing against easier at GP and I’m a little skeptical that her front running style will transfer to the AQU grass? However, I really like the race four back at CD where see rated off the pace and made a nice late run for second in a MSW affair…. To me, Junior Alvarado is typically underrated and I expect him to work out a good trip…. Very competitive race and will take a shot at 8/1 or higher…. Other contenders =
#1 Volatility Index (MLO 5/2) – Grade C
#10 War Queen (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Realistic (MLO 5/1) – Grade C-
#7 Battlement (MLO 6/1) – Grade C-

Next, MVR/Race8…. Projected to be a “chaos” MSW race for sprinters traveling 5.5 furlongs…. The #5, Divine Appointment, has an “A+” contender rating and is co third choice on the ML at 8/1…. This 3 yr old filly is making fifth start after finishing a well beaten fourth at 9/5 odds…. Gets a rider switch to leading jockey and will probably take tote action accordingly…. I am hesitant to back this filly despite the strong A+ rating and instead, going to make a small action wager only based on her hitting the board…. I going to use her in the trifecta (and maybe super) with the second time starter, #3, Hot Pink…. I gambling this 2TS will show big improvement for sharp owner/trainer Elliot Sullivan…Proposed ticket as follows: 3-5/3-5/all; 3-5/all/3-5; and all/3-5/3-5. Other contenders =
#10 Dashing Cat (MLO 6/1) – Grade C+
#8 Ginger Fizz (MLO 7/5) – Grade C-
#3 Hot Pink (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-
#2 Ohio Rose (MLO 6/1) – Grade D

BOL!

[BETA]

After scratches, revise playable odds for AQU Race 7 for #5, Glory to Kitten, from 8/1 to 6/1.

[BETA]

Apr 20th…. 3 Potential Plays:

First play is HAW/Race1 (4:10pm central)…. This is projected to be a “dominant” race (NW1) for IL bred allowance fillies and mares routing 8.5 furlongs on dirt…. The #1, Saturday's Song, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 3yr old filly is facing older making 3rd lifetime start and first try around two turns…. Above average pedigree suggests she is more than capable as does her last “even” paced effort sprinting 6f…. Seasoned 4 yr old, Prairie Chick (#5), is main competition but I’m expecting her to be over-bet and hopefully, regress off her best ever last race…. In contrast, I’m expecting Saturday’s Song to move forward and improve for sharp jockey/trainer combo…. Will back at 2/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Prairie Chick (MLO 6/5) – Grade B+


Next, KEE/Race9 (Turf Only @ 4:30pm central)…. Projected to be a “chaos” MSW turf route for 3 yr old fillies traveling 8.5 furlongs…. This race is loaded but I’m interested in #12, How (IRE)… She has an “A+” contender rating and is second choice on the ML at 9/2…. This filly ships from FG and is making third US start after four prior losing efforts abroad…. Finished second in last at “odds-on” off rank, hard-to-handle wide trip…. Prior start was also a near miss off brutal trip…. Like 3rd time Tom Proctor; like 3rd time Lasix; like the 40 day freshening to fix “rank” issues; like recent sharp 5f work @ KEE; and like jockey switch to Geroux…. Don’t like outside post; but, will play at 3/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#9 Kahrumana (MLO 2/1) – Grade A
#7 Pounds to Pennies (MLO 4/1) – Grade D
#11 Suburb (MLO 6/1) – Grade D
#3 Youngest Daughter (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-
#8 Dynamic War (MLO 30/1) – Grade C-

BOL!

[BETA]

For anyone interested, I've attached a "generic" PDF worksheet sorted alphabetically by track name illustrating corresponding contender grades.... If grade field is "blank" = non-contender.... All grades generated from five separate models as discussed earlier.... "Y" symbol in Bump column denotes "value" upgrade included and reflected in contender grade.

All other columns self-explanatory.

Reminder: Worksheet Data represents/serves as a "starting point" only as each race should be vetted using your own preferred handicapping routines.

BOL!

[BETA]

Apr 20th Results:
Both plays met minimum odds requirement at post.... 2 losers.

YTD = 0 for 3

[BETA]

Apr 21st…. 4 Potential Plays:

First play is GP/Race1 (Turf only @ 11:55am central)…. This is projected to be an “orderly” race (Starter/Optional Claiming) for 3 yr old fillies routing 8 furlongs on turf…. The #1, Bahama Kitten, has an “A+” contender grade and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. She draws a nice post and should get a good trip rating behind the two projected speedsters #3 and #7…. Trainer, Steve Towne, has a small barn (4 horses) and seems to do his best work with 3 yr olds (developing horses) in similar spots…. Lezcano has left town and Panici rides (0 for 5 w/trainer)…. After watching last race replay, there is concern that she is a little “dressed up” from that effort, but will gamble that she can move forward one more time…. Will back at 5/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Ventina (MLO 5/2) – Grade C+
#3 Lover’s Key (MLO 7/2) – Grade D
#7 Princess Victoria (MLO 5/1) – Grade C
#2 Flying Girl (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next, WO/Race7 (3:19pm central)…. Projected to be a “chaos” C25k sprint for fillies and mares traveling 5.5 furlongs on the poly…. #3, Unseen Angels, gets an “A+” contender rating and is second choice on the ML at 3/1…. This 4 yr old filly returns from vacation in FL off two very poor efforts on the dirt at TAM…. She reunites with high percentage trainer, Norman McKnight, and should be ready (41 day layoff) to fire best shot off the class drop to C25k…. Da Silva gets call which most likely will hurt price…. This is a salty group but will play at 5/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#2 Two Step Flor (MLO 5/2) – Grade C-
#6 Old Valyria (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Geocentric (MLO 6/1) – Grade C+


Next, KEE/Race7 (3:24pm central)…. Projected to be a “orderly” starter allowance route for 3 yr olds going 8.5 furlongs on dirt…. #2, Phat Man, gets an “A” contender rating and is fifth choice on the ML at 6/1…. This colt ships in from FG off a second place turf effort…. Trainer, Joe Sharp, seems to not excel in this spot (0 for 16 dirt routes at Kee); but will forgive small sample and default to glass half full…. He is due. Most of all, I really like the effort 3 back (LeComte-GR3) where Phat Man displayed high cruising early speed before tiring against much better…. This is another salty group but will play at 7/1 or higher….
Other contenders =
#5 Gladtobehere (MLO 7/2) – Grade D
#4 Coors Lute (MLO 4/1) – Grade C
#8 Equator (MLO 4/1) – Grade C+
#7 Wicked Zar (MLO 5/1) – Grade D
#1 Blue Azul (MLO 8/1) – Grade C-


Next, SA/Race4 (4:29pm central)…. Projected to be a “Chaos” C16k sprint going 6 furlongs on dirt…. #7, Where Y'at Joe Joe, gets an “A+” contender rating and is co-fifth choice on the ML at 6/1…. This 5 yr old gelding makes 2nd start off claim for conditioner, Mark Glatt (15% winners from 27 starters)…. Takes the blinkers off returning from 54 day layoff…nice 5f work on Apr 11th a plus as is slight class drop from C20k…. This is another competitive group but will play at 7/2 or higher….
Other contenders =
#3 Bolitar (MLO 7/2) – Grade C-
#2 Louden's Gray (MLO 4/1) – Grade B-
#6 Finallygotabentley (MLO 4/1) – Grade D
#4 Last One Standing (MLO 9/2) – Grade C+


BOL!


For anyone interested, I've attached a "generic" PDF worksheet.

[stuball]

Thanks I am going to follow along to see how it goes....

[theBozyn]

Hey Beta, that was a tough beat on the Phat Man in race seven at Keeneland. Those are the kind of races that drive people crazy. You're right but not lucky. Anyways that was a good pick.