Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
Beyer has always said he has difficulty making reliable turf figures. He also sometimes makes adjustments to previous figures after horses have run again
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I've seen this before he even admitted it. The Jockeys, the trip and the turf condition just adds too many variables to these races. In the summer the track (especially Saratoga) can become speed favoring for days in a row, then change over night. And if the jockeys are playing grab and hold...……..it strengthens the bias. Saving ground and getting an opening are as vital as how fast a horse can run because the races are evenly matched. The odds (and figs)don't match a horses real chance and that's where the money is. I've said this before about grass races. You can take those figs and toss them, it will rarely give you the overlay or bomb that counts during the meet. Where literally, one or two horses like that can make the meet.
The bottom line is on turf you won't get the horses you need to score out by just looking at those figs. There will be many horses that run well on the turf courses that according to those figures make no sense at all.
Looks like Oscar Performance is taking the "cut back" move that World Approval did last year. With the kind of trip horses like these get, they can really be tough to beat when they get hot at the mile distance.
