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Originally Posted by Onesome
A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV, you're just screwing around with the distribution of returns and in the longrun youre going to have the same return %.
Other things im hearing about not playing short price horses because they are a short price and instead to wheel them in exotics is god awful. It's the fav/longshot bias idiotic notion that allow losers to think a horse that goes off at even can't possibly be +EV. And on top of that somehow a horse not worth it in win pools is worth it in exotics is crazy.
Now using recovery type bankroll management you have a big problem in NA racing...the fact that 30-50% of the pool comes in at the final minute, so you can't assume odds. Oh and this idiot says if the odds go up it's to your advantage; nope people who are smarter then you have bet other horses, your bet is really -EV.
You've been on this board for 16years, cmon man you should know better than this.
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You sir, are right on the money here.
And you said it exactly right.
Quote:
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A betting system will never turn -EV picks into +EV
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A betting strategy CAN change your ROI but cannot cross over from a negative to a positive (or vice versa).
