Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I think we have to assume that the majority of horseplayers aren't that good at handicapping or betting, or both. Some odds on favorites are so obviously flawed yet people bet them, hard to fathom.
Darin Zoccali has an article about betting on drf today. The main profit he made on this today came from exotic wagers. As Pace alluded to, if you want to make any sort of meaningful money from betting horses, it's going to be very tough to do betting to win.
http://www.drf.com/news/zoccali-trus...ping-game-bust |
That is more than anything an example of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy--shoot first, and whatever you are able to hit, call it the target. I know people who make a substantial profit wagering--both primary and secondary--who wager almost exclusively win. The whole thing boils down to an advantage. If you can pick enough winners that show a profit over time, HOW you do it doesn't matter as much as that you are ABLE to do it.
The win bettors I know tend to NOT be "value seeking bettors" playing one race at a time as if their ego survival depended on the outcome. They tend to be high volume bettors wagering many, many races--with an overall statistical edge. Many of those wagers are in the mutuel range(s) usually avoided by "value seeking bettors"--even money to 2/1.
That may sound preposterous to those unfamiliar with the processes involved, or who are not accustomed to wagering a large volume of races based on computer models and "statistical advantage." That is GREAT! Somebody has to lose the money the others are winning--many times every day at many tracks.
