Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Yes, he may get 7/2 on one ticket, 10-1 on another ticket, 100-1 on a another ticket, but he may get 2-1 on another, and 1-1 on another. His volatility will be related to "net" price over a series of bets. If the net is 7/2 long term then his volatility will be approximately equal to a win better that plays some 7/2 shots, some 10-1 shots, some 100-1 shots, some 2-1 shots etc... It's all the same. The volatility is dependent on the odds range.
Setting this aside, I think the whole idea of going for "scores" is idiotic.
Every win and exotic bet has a probability of coming in and a payoff. You should play overlays and not worry about where along the spectrum the payoff might be. I would gladly take 2.70 to place with a 80% chance of cashing for the rest of my life. I couldn't care less about making scores. But if I have 2 live longshots in the same race I'll box those also. I think mostly exotic players horrible misplay them because of all the respected but bad literature out there, but that's another story.
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Anyone who actually wants to understand betting horses to make money should commit the above to memory.
The strategy for making money is simple. Bet horses (or combinations of horses) with a probability of winning is greater than their tote odds. It's not easy because the calculation of probability of winning is not like calculating the odds of catching a queen on the river in Hold 'Em. There are a lot of more artful than statistical factors when calculating a horse's probabilities. But if you get good at it, you have a better than average chance of being a winner.
And Class hit the nail on the head. If you have the Ralph Kramden approach to betting the horses - always looking for the big score - you'll be up, you'll be down, and mostly you'll be down. I've always been of the opinion that there are a lot of good handicappers out there, and about 2% of them (that's a hyperbolic, made up statistic to make a point) understand how to make money parimutuelly.
