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Old 03-29-2014, 01:56 PM   #5
ultracapper
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
Track handicapper and track odds maker should be two entirely different functions. If you are the track handicapper, such as Brad Free for the DRF at SA, then his opinion is what we are looking for. If you are the track odds maker, I believe his name is John White at SA, then it is your job to predict to the best of your ability what the final odds will be, or at least paint a general picture as to which horses will be bet heavier than the other horses. If the track odds maker is basing it on his handicapping and trying to predict an order of finish, he isn't providing any service at all. To come right out and tell you who the MLF is and then move your discussion on to the next horse and come right out and say this will be the betting favorite at post time is confusing at best. And frankly, I have no issue with him stating why he made a horse a MLF if it is based on those things that predict what the betting public will do. Yesterday, he should have made the 4 the MLF, explained why it would be bet to favoritism, because he obviously knew, and then move on and say that he liked the 3, and explain that. He's still muddling hcpper and ml maker responsibilities, but at least he's handling it properly, in my eyes anyway. I saw zero value in him making the 3 the mlf knowing full well it wouldn't go favored. It's more like he was trying to show us how good a handicapper he was, and if the 3 won, then after the race get to boast about how he should have been listened to. It was a worthless exercise on his part yesterday, and unfortunately, it isn't isolated to this instance. Anybody can make a crappy ml, but at least stick to the objective of trying to predict the ending odds.

If a horse at SA is bet down or gets away on the board, we have no idea whether it means anything other than White didn't handicap the race very well. Useless info, oh, and this is the track that's handling $8mil to $10mil in bets a day. GREAT!!!!
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