Quote:
Originally Posted by AndyC
So let's say a rebate player is getting 10% in the trifecta pools and a track raises their rate from 23% to 30%. What would you expect the rebate player to do? Bet the same amount? Quit betting? Or ask for a higher rebate? Clearly rebate players are generally smart players so I doubt that they would continue betting the same amount. Not betting trifectas would be a disaster for both the track and the ADWs. Giving bigger rebates would not work given the razor thin margins that they operate on. The ADWs would go back to the tracks and request a bigger piece of the trifecta pie. So targeting rebate players favorite bets may not exactly be the answer.
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Assuming the track didn't raise the host fee, the high volume rebate player in most cases would be getting 17% and not the same 10% (at least they would at PTC). Their effective takeout rate would be the same (13%).
If the track raised the host fee, then the high volume player's effective takeout rate would go down. There would be a possibility that their wagering on that track/pool would decrease, or they would try to find another ADW with a better deal.
The proliferation of the multi-race bets kills churn. Using a P4 or P5 as a track's low takeout "promotion" bet is a mistake IMO because there is too much money tied up for too long a time. If a track wants to do a promotional rate, it's far better to use a single race bet that is easier to hit (WPS, EX or maybe a TRI), or if you have to, the DD.
These bets were only put in during the time when the industry thought they could compete with the lottery if they had "jackpot" sized payoffs. It was compounded by the carryover Pick(n) bets (I know, my bad, I wrote the rules for the first one in the US in Ohio for Beulah Park). Look at how much money gets tied up for weeks/months/entire meets. That's money that could be churning every day which is instead sitting around doing nothing.
