Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
I wouldn't touch baseball...
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/
One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).
I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.
Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml
Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.
I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.
Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today? |
If you applied yourself in sports betting to the extent that you have in the "running horse"...my money says that you would be a lot better off, financially speaking. I am not, of course, implying that you may not be well off financially now. 
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 12-19-2022 at 12:40 AM.
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