Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
They say that there would be no horse races without differences of opinion...and my opinion differs from yours on this. As far as I am concerned...there can be no true knowledge of the "quality of the horses" without taking pace into consideration in their corresponding races. I have seen impressive-looking winners whose performances were attributed entirely to the pace of the race...and I've seen fit horses finish dead last also entirely due to the pace of the race. Pace is a vital component of the handicapping puzzle...and I see no reason to ignore such an important handicapping factor. Of what possible use would my knowledge of "who-beat-whom, and by how much" be...if pace, and its affect on the individual horses, was not a prime handicapping consideration?
Yes...the "figure horses" might be overbet at times, and the figure-making process is fraught with "uncertainty"...but the class-handicapper and the replay-watcher must deal with uncertainty as well. As I said before...nothing is "iron-clad" in this game. But I can't totally disregard the horse's speed in a racing game...even if making accurate figures is an "idealistic fantasy".
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I think it's getting a bit into the weeds. Numbers are one tool in the handicappers toolbox. These (on-target) do have very good accuracy but with that being said the number as it currently stands is not a 100% comprehensive measure of a horse's effort. I myself am a trip handicapper first and foremost and do plenty of race watching. A significant amount of pace analysis is part of my race watching routine and a fair amount of my handicapping considers early pace and position. You're going to have to be a good comprehensive well-rounded handicapper and damn good disciplined money manager to profit in this game. Better inputs can only help. I can see where these numbers may not 'fit' into someone's routine, the scale is different etc. Like I said, I built the product for me to use and at a time when I was really a full-time daily horseplayer who had all the rest of it in my head because I was there everyday, handicapped every race at my track and was a close observer. In that type of scenario the product can be very potent in the right hands.
