I don't usually wager on the races at Turf Paradise...but I plan to do so today. As I was handicapping the first race...I noticed a peculiarity in the past performances of the
Lonely Lover. In both of her last two starts, this horse covered the 6 furlongs in about 1:11.2...so, given that this track is located in sunny Arizona...the assumption must be that the corresponding Beyer figures for these two races would closely resemble one another...track variant notwithstanding. The DRF variant suggests that a two/fifths of a second difference exists between the two track variants, so, a five-point Beyer difference between the two figures would exist...if the DRF variant was "accurate". Of course, we all know that the DRF variant ISN'T accurate...but how inaccurate COULD it be, at a commonly-run distance run on a lightening-fast track in ideal weather conditions?
The Beyer figures assigned to these two races are 54 and 28 respectively...suggesting that almost 11 lengths of difference exists between them. Is this possible? Is the DRF variant totally wrong in this case...or does the fault lie with the Beyer figure? Could the WIND have played a role in this case?
If these two races were run in cold weather...then I could condemn the much-maligned DRF variant. But NOW...I am not so sure.
