Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
1.ARCHANOVA - 4/1 ML, I can't see this guy winning. His last race at Belmont (Temperence Hill) was mildly interesting because of the ground loss. A case could be made for hitting the board because of that race. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)
2.INFOBEDAD - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)
3.DESTIN - 5/1 ML, Not a big fan, but in a race without much starpower, he can at least run a solid race. JCGC has excuses. If the favorite runs a dud and Destin gets a good forwardly placed trip he could be in a good position turning for home. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'B' (needs favorable trip)
4.ESTRECHADA - 3/1 ML, She looks bad to me. As far as win/multis I have her rated an 'X' (unlikely). I am slightly bothered that her morning line odds and my opinion are at such opposite ends of the spectrum. I am considering using her as a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)
5.NOBLE NICK - 12/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)
6.GROUND RULES - 8/1 ML, Most likely outclassed and will simply flatten-out at the increase in distance. Last race and pattern of improvement is interesting enough to consider as a long shot. As far as win/multis I have him rated a 'C' (unlikely but unknown)
7.HARD ACES - 5/2 ML, He looks like the only real grade 2 horse in the field. If he doesn't fire, it could get interesting, but this is a standout horse. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'A' (win contender).
8.DRESSED IN HERMES - 8/1 ML, Looks like a non-contender. As far as win/multis I have him rated an 'X' (unlikely)
I may end up passing this race. On the fence. Hard Aces seems like an obvious 'Key', but I'm not crazy about it. Decision will come down to value on some of the other opinions.
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Thanks!! I was hoping someone would break this race down. I agree with your analysis with the exception of the #1. I fall into this trap at times weighing the people moves too much, but Landeros traveling cross county tonight to climb aboard has me intrigued. Light on class, but looks fit and could be the control on the front end. If you pass the race, root for him as I'll be looking to fund the rest of the day with a win. I'll play him under HARD ACES as well.
