|
I tend to avoid off tracks when it gets so wet there are puddles on the surface and a lot of horses clearly are not reacting well because the gaps between them at the finish are huge.
Other than that I handicap the same way and just glance at each horse's off track races to see if there's any evidence of general preference. I am also more sensitive to speed and bad rail biases. You can sometimes find a decent play by throwing out some well bet horse that will be against it. Then you don't have to worry so much about picking someone that can handle it. You can just spread against a bad favorite.
The much bigger problem for me is dealing with the horses when they come back after running on an off track.
If you throw those races out, you will sometimes excuse a poor performance on an off track when the off track had nothing to do with the horse running poorly. He simply went off form. You will also sometimes throw out races where the horse legitimately improved and it wasn't that he just happened to like some wet track. You are more or less forced to make the same kind of subjective judgements about the horse's wet track ability we don't feel comfortable with on the day of the races.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-31-2015 at 10:49 AM.
|
