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098poi,
Thanks for the Gordon Pine link.
A/E is definitely a useful index for seeing if a factor is over or underbet but it does not tell you anything about win probability for that factor. Using the price of a horse brings in all sorts of other handicapping factors which together sets its price. So presuming it is the single factor being investigated that does all that is very misleading.
Game Theory,
As you might suspect I am trying to avoid the incremental approach. I would guess it is a compound IV that needs to be found, as it is a combination of factors that may make the race winner, rather than just one single factor. The closer you look the more confused it gets.
Overlay,
Thanks for info.
What you are saying is that a large sample used for an IV calculation converges onto a "truish" probability. That knowledge, +/- 5%, is what I am after. Does the price really effect the chance of winning, or does the chance of winning effect the price?
Has anyone got any relevant information on Fred Davis's views, who possibly introduced the IV method in his 1974 book "Percentages and Probabilities"
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