Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
accurately predicting splits is exponentially more helpful than final time. An acceptable +- for final time should be pretty tight to be of value IMO. Maybe 2/5 give or take at 6 furlongs. Predicting 1:12.2 and accepting anything between 1:11.2 and 1:13.2 is much too liberal IMHO.
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Value in what sense? My goal was to predict the estimated "fundamental" finishing time. By this I mean the finishing time considering nothing about the "condition" of today's surface. The hope being that the difference between predicted and actual would then be at least in part because of the condition of today's surface. Are you saying that variations in conditions only contribute up to +/- 2/5s at a 6f race? In general I'd love to hear from you/others on how much you might expect conditions to contribute to differences in time over days.
As an interesting thought experiment, if I could build a model that accurately predicts finishing time given nothing but all the runners' past information, as well as info about today's race that does not include condition of the surface, would that mean that condition of the surface isn't actually as big of a difference maker as people assume?
